August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

12-6-16!

 

It was a inter-hour obs. No snow south of the Columbia River. Sorry. We'll send pics.

We will be back in Vancouver by then.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like SEA will probably avoid their second 90+ of the year.

gonna be a close call.

[Deweydog]

We will be back in Vancouver by then.

Chick Fil A will be open by then too!

[BLI snowman]

It would also make it snow on 2-12-17.

 

We are due for snow on that date. We had  a lot of it in 1990 and 1995!

[Front Ranger]

In November? Thumbing through their daily low temp records, a number of those stemmed from inversions and low level cold pools. 2000, 2014, 1952 for starters. The point being, inversions are clearly a significant aspect of our November climo whereas they are a virtual non-factor by the end of February. I think that is pretty clear-cut.

Ok, sure. And my point was simply that November's top tier events were not really a product of inversions.

[Front Ranger]

gonna be a close call.

I know. My jinx just might work!

[Deweydog]

I know. My jinx just might work!

You don't know SeaTac as well as you think you do.

[Deweydog]

PDX just hit 99!

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=KPDX

Not likely.

[snow_wizard]

Did you see the 12z Euro?!

 

Yes...Rather sexy!

 

Nice seeing the kind of pattern that would be a big score during the winter.  Haven't seen much of that in August in recent years.

[Jesse]

Not likely.

Score!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

SEA just brushed 90 and has fallen back to 89.  Looks like 97 for PDX...at least through 5pm.

 

Pretty impressive for a rather ho hum ridge.

[BLI snowman]

SEA just brushed 90 and has fallen back to 89.  Looks like 97 for PDX...at least through 5pm.

 

Pretty impressive for a rather ho hum ridge.

 

20c 850mb temps with light offshore flow is aight. 

[Front Ranger]

You don't know SeaTac as well as you think you do.

I know it as well as Tim thinks he does.

[Front Ranger]

[Phil]

18z GFS is troughalicious. Maybe tonight is the night the modeling catches on and takes the real plunge.

[Phil]

Regarding winter, starting to become clear (IMO) that we'll have a NPAC anticyclone that is both stronger and located poleward versus the typical Niña orientation given the perfectly timed transition into +QBO in conjunction with reduced IO exhaust,

 

I have a strong hunch that this will wind up being the best winter since at least 2008-09 in the PNW.

[Deweydog]

I know it as well as Tim thinks he does.

Imagine if your powers combined...

[GHweatherChris]

Regarding winter, starting to become clear (IMO) that we'll have a NPAC anticyclone that is both stronger and located poleward versus the typical Niña orientation given the perfectly timed transition into +QBO in conjunction with reduced IO exhaust,

 

I have a strong hunch that this will wind up being the best winter since at least 2008-09 in the PNW.

Well it certainly will not take much to accomplish that.

[Jesse]

Well it certainly will not take much to accomplish that.

We've had a couple decent winters since then.

[Jesse]

Looks like PDX hit 98.

 

In Hood River now where it was around 100 today.

[Deweydog]

Looks like PDX hit 98.

 

In Hood River now where it was around 100 today.

Perfect storm. Just enough offshore flow to mix completely adiabatically but not over mixed. Can't do any more with thicknesses of 577dm. Cooler tomorrow as it will be a marine layer day.

[GHweatherChris]

We've had a couple decent winters since then.

Not here, only snow we have gotten mostly is the quick 2 to 4 inches and switch to rain, nothing sustained really.

 

And I know I live some what close to the ocean but even so it has been disappointing mostly since 08-09.

[Front Ranger]

Not here, only snow we have gotten mostly is the quick 2 to 4 inches and switch to rain, nothing sustained really.

 

And I know I live some what close to the ocean but even so it has been disappointing mostly since 08-09.

So you completely missed out in 2010-11 and 2011-12 huh?

[GHweatherChris]

Edit:

 

So you completely missed out in 2010-11 and 2011-12 huh?

We did not get anything substantial or long lasting. 1 day snow events are cool, but to have it stick around for days is better.

 

I think 11-12 was the best since 08-09, we did have to stop DTV installs for 2 days due to roads being unsafe but other than that, nothing.

[Deweydog]

Dew points back to a much more enjoyable level. Lips were getting chappy.

[NorthBurnabyWeather]

The weather here has been so darned stable...I never thought I'd say this, but I miss thunderstorms and heat waves. Metro Vancouver and the BC coast used to get a good solid two or three of each, every summer for the past couple of summers. Part of me wishes we could get the dangerous jungle-like heat and wild thunderstorms that are gripping the midwest/northeast right now. But I know that's impossible here because the waters around here are, too cold and the Rockies block any moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. All I can hope for is an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season and the remnants of a wayward hurricane getting tapped into a shortwave, or an upper low. Like the remnants of Hurricane Fabio in 2012.

 

On the other hand, this has been the first stable, PNW-esque summer around here since 2011. Cool temperatures, abundant marine influence, punctuated by a few days of overcast conditions and rain. I'm not begging for air conditioning, the reservoirs are filled, there's no drought, the whole region isn't on fire. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth I guess...

[James Jones]

WRF is suggesting tomorrow could be a bit of a high cloud shocker.

 

Should be a really warm night with those clouds already moving in.

[Deweydog]

If Flatiron isn't a cutter, he may be soon...

 

http://komonews.com/news/local/nearly-3000-trees-around-sea-tac-airport-will-be-chopped-down

[Front Ranger]

If Flatiron isn't a cutter, he may be soon...

 

http://komonews.com/news/local/nearly-3000-trees-around-sea-tac-airport-will-be-chopped-down

All in on UHI, baby!

 

Now if they did that plus added 2 runways to OLM, I'd definitely find some sharp objects.

[snow_wizard]

Regarding winter, starting to become clear (IMO) that we'll have a NPAC anticyclone that is both stronger and located poleward versus the typical Niña orientation given the perfectly timed transition into +QBO in conjunction with reduced IO exhaust,

 

I have a strong hunch that this will wind up being the best winter since at least 2008-09 in the PNW.

 

I like those words!

 

No doubt if we see patterns like the day 9 GFS tonight we will be just fine.  What is the deal with the QBO BTW?  It seems to not be doing what it should be.

[Phil]

The weather here has been so darned stable...I never thought I'd say this, but I miss thunderstorms and heat waves. Metro Vancouver and the BC coast used to get a good solid two or three of each, every summer for the past couple of summers. Part of me wishes we could get the dangerous jungle-like heat and wild thunderstorms that are gripping the midwest/northeast right now. But I know that's impossible here because the waters around here are, too cold and the Rockies block any moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. All I can hope for is an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season and the remnants of a wayward hurricane getting tapped into a shortwave, or an upper low. Like the remnants of Hurricane Fabio in 2012.

Trust me, you don't want to walk outside at 11pm into heat indices still above 100 degrees. It's just not right.

[snow_wizard]

Not here, only snow we have gotten mostly is the quick 2 to 4 inches and switch to rain, nothing sustained really.

 

And I know I live some what close to the ocean but even so it has been disappointing mostly since 08-09.

 

I did good here in 2010-11 and ok in 2011-2012, but nothing since then other than the deep cold waves in 2013-14.

[snow_wizard]

The weather here has been so darned stable...I never thought I'd say this, but I miss thunderstorms and heat waves. Metro Vancouver and the BC coast used to get a good solid two or three of each, every summer for the past couple of summers. Part of me wishes we could get the dangerous jungle-like heat and wild thunderstorms that are gripping the midwest/northeast right now. But I know that's impossible here because the waters around here are, too cold and the Rockies block any moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. All I can hope for is an active Eastern Pacific hurricane season and the remnants of a wayward hurricane getting tapped into a shortwave, or an upper low. Like the remnants of Hurricane Fabio in 2012.

 

On the other hand, this has been the first stable, PNW-esque summer around here since 2011. Cool temperatures, abundant marine influence, punctuated by a few days of overcast conditions and rain. I'm not begging for air conditioning, the reservoirs are filled, there's no drought, the whole region isn't on fire. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth I guess...

 

This area has about the most enjoyable summers in the country IMO.  If anything I wish it were a bit cooler.

[Phil]

Trust me, you don't want to walk outside at 11pm into heat indices still above 100 degrees. It's just not right.

The 11:52pm ob @ DCA was 85/80. Like, who the hell could possibly enjoy this s**t?

[snow_wizard]

The 11:52pm ob @ DCA was 85/80. Like, who the hell could possibly enjoy this s**t?

 

Ugh!

 

I read that the min temps nationwide have been abnormally warm this summer.  Undoubtedly due to unusually high dps.  Any idea why the dps have been so high in so many areas?

 

Also...could you elaborate on what is going on with the QBO this year?  Pretty bizarre behavior on that index.

[snow_wizard]

Insanely amplified GOA / Aleutian / Alaska ridge in the week two period is looking more likely.  That kind of a pattern would bring decent cold (in relation to normal) even as early as late Sept or Oct.

[GHweatherChris]

Insanely amplified GOA / Aleutian / Alaska ridge in the week two period is looking more likely. That kind of a pattern would bring decent cold (in relation to normal) even as early as late Sept or Oct.

Nothing has looked likely this summer, the models can't keep their together for more than 4 days out at best.

[TT-SEA]

Nothing has looked likely this summer, the models can't keep their s**t together for more than 4 days out at best.

 

 

This.

[Phil]

Ugh!

 

I read that the min temps nationwide have been abnormally warm this summer. Undoubtedly due to unusually high dps. Any idea why the dps have been so high in so many areas?

 

Also...could you elaborate on what is going on with the QBO this year? Pretty bizarre behavior on that index.

Yeah, I've noticed the heat is sticking around longer into the night, and has been starting much earlier in the day as well.

 

We just went 35 days straight without falling below 70 degrees, numerous nights failed to drop below 80 degrees. Worst part is when temps soar into the 90-95 degree range by 9AM.

 

As for the QBO, it's controversial. I have a theory on it that I'll elaborate on later, but for now you can rest easy knowing a +QBO can only benefit you in a Niña winter.

[snow_wizard]

Nothing has looked likely this summer, the models can't keep their s**t together for more than 4 days out at best.

 

I disagree.  An anomalous GOA ridge has been a very prominent feature this summer.  From a 500mb perspective the anomaly centers have been robust and persistent this summer.  The same anomaly pattern in the winter would have us all smiling.

 

One of the great rules of forecasting is go with persistence of a general pattern.  The pattern we are in now is likely transitional and not in synch with the established mean pattern this summer.