August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy Supercell]

Today will (hopefully, going by NWS) start a decent "stretch" for convection. This afternoon and much of next week could get exciting.

 

Wunderground and other websites still refuse to mention any storms on their 10-days. That's to be expected though. Nothing new

[VancouverIslandSouth]

SEA is at +0.6 for the month now. WFO SEA is also at +0.6 and Bellingham is at +1.3

 

OLM is at -0.8

 

So the same phenomenon is occurring in August where the stations in the Puget Sound region are warmer than places to the south. I am assuming places like Victoria and Vancouver BC are also warmer than normal.

 

Different month... different pattern... same result in Western WA.

 

YYJ (Victoria Airport) is running +1.3C (+2.3F) so far after finishing +1.1C (+2F) last month; YVR (Vancouver Airport) is running +0.3C (+0.5F) after finishing +0.8C (+1.4F) last month. The weak marine push yesterday afternoon cooled things down slightly but we still ended up with an above-average overnight low.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is just perfection.

[Deweydog]

12Z ECMWF is just perfection.

 

Some people may agree, disagree.  

[ShawniganLake]

SEA is at +0.6 for the month now. WFO SEA is also at +0.6 and Bellingham is at +1.3

 

OLM is at -0.8

 

So the same phenomenon is occurring in August where the stations in the Puget Sound region are warmer than places to the south. I am assuming places like Victoria and Vancouver BC are also warmer than normal.

 

Different month... different pattern... same result in Western WA.

What is PDX running?

[Geos]

Spent the day at Rainier yesterday. Got away from the heat for the most part. It was packed up there with people!

Much more tolerable in the lowlands today. Reached 90° both yesterday and on Friday.

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Record warm August on the way??

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Months without substantial rain have sure transformed the look of the landscape. The hot dry pattern coming up won't be much drier than it's been here for the past month, but we're getting closer to the time of the year where increased humidity and longer nights reduce the evaporation rate.

 

Late April:

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3371_zpsyae4zahp.jpg

 

Today:

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3585_zpskdfbtfgw.jpg

[Abbotsford_wx]

Months without substantial rain have sure transformed the look of the landscape. The hot dry pattern coming up won't be much drier than it's been here for the past month, but we're getting closer to the time of the year where increased humidity and longer nights reduce the evaporation rate.

 

Wow. Not quite so bad here, but still mighty dry. The last ground soaking rain was over a month ago.

[Deweydog]

Record warm August on the way??

 

Don't be mean.  

[James Jones]

Eugene could put together a ridiculously long streak of 90+ days if things go right. The next few days should be borderline.

[Timmy Supercell]

Months without substantial rain have sure transformed the look of the landscape. The hot dry pattern coming up won't be much drier than it's been here for the past month, but we're getting closer to the time of the year where increased humidity and longer nights reduce the evaporation rate.

 

Late April:

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3371_zpsyae4zahp.jpg

 

Today:

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_3585_zpskdfbtfgw.jpg

 

That's exactly how my yard ended up from April/May through the summer. Now my grass looks like hay. 

[Trainwreck]

That's exactly how my yard ended up from April/May through the summer. Now my grass looks like hay.

Water it. I live in Redmond Or. and I have to water it everyday or it just gets brown within a few days. Soooooo dry here.

[Front Ranger]

What is PDX running?

 

+.1

 

Higher after today, of course.

[Front Ranger]

Eugene could put together a ridiculously long streak of 90+ days if things go right. The next few days should be borderline.

 

Looks like the longest they had last summer was 7 days. I imagine their record has to be at least a dozen, probably from 1967.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That's exactly how my yard ended up from April/May through the summer. Now my grass looks like hay. 

 

Yeah that is pretty typical in the Willamette Valley too. It usually doesn't rain more than a couple days between July 4th and Labor Day weekend. 

[DareDuck]

Water it. I live in Redmond Or. and I have to water it everyday or it just gets brown within a few days. Soooooo dry here.

 

I'm in Bend. My lawn looked great in late spring, then died out pretty badly, but I've gotten it to come back. Two female dogs don't help matters.

[James Jones]

Looks like the longest they had last summer was 7 days. I imagine their record has to be at least a dozen, probably from 1967.

The record is 10, done in 1967 and 1974. The old downtown station had 11 in a row in 1938. 

[Jesse]

The bad old days are back!

 

Wake me up in a week and a half...

[TT-SEA]

We are at Anthonys waterfront in Olympia... had to drop off kids on Oregon coast for camp and need traffic to die down.

 

I can report that it feels quite hot out here on the patio.

 

Lovely day.

[Front Ranger]

The record is 10, done in 1967 and 1974. The old downtown station had 11 in a row in 1938. 

 

Well, I was right about 1967. Surprised it's not a little higher than that, isn't Portland's record around 10 also?

[James Jones]

Well, I was right about 1967. Surprised it's not a little higher than that, isn't Portland's record around 10 also?

Yeah, 10 in 2009. Eugene's record does seem a little weak.

[Brennan]

Lots of lake weather coming up. Excited to get out on Whatcom a few times. Been too busy and not ready for summer to be over yet!

[Geos]

Months without substantial rain have sure transformed the look of the landscape. The hot dry pattern coming up won't be much drier than it's been here for the past month, but we're getting closer to the time of the year where increased humidity and longer nights reduce the evaporation rate.

 

Late April:

 

Today:

 

Would never have guessed that yard was one out of SW BC! You're really hurting for rain there.

Grass is brown/yellow in spots around this area. I suspect it will dry out a lot more in the next week.

 

85° here today. Over performed a bit.

[Jesse]

You're a funny guy Jesse. I'm not a troll. Your calling me a troll when you were banned on this site a while back for trolling.

Actually that was for pointing out the selective moderation of OT posts. But that's neither here nor there.

 

Glad you decided against leaving us forever.

[ShawniganLake]

Would never have guessed that yard was one out of SW BC! You're really hurting for rain there.

Grass is brown/yellow in spots around this area. I suspect it will dry out a lot more in the next week.

 

85° here today. Over performed a bit.

Southern Vancouver island is often the driest place in southern Canada during the summer. However, the dry season started very early this year. Basically April 1st. Lots of maple and alder trees have started to look stressed and are shedding their leaves now.

[TT-SEA]

Southern Vancouver island is often the driest place in southern Canada during the summer. However, the dry season started very early this year. Basically April 1st. Lots of maple and alder trees have started to look stressed and are shedding their leaves now.

 

 

Just got home... I saw the alder trees shedding some leaves here as well.   And its been relatively wet here   The grass along the roads is still pretty green.  The alder trees lose leaves early every year.  

[TT-SEA]

Looks above normal for most of the next 2 weeks on the GFS ensembles:

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Jesse]

Thanks, I had to come back because of what's in store for us starting in about 3 months.

Latest triple digits on record?

[Jesse]

00z ensembles seem to keep the hope alive for a quicker cool down.

[Phil]

Anyone else ready for autumn? I'm like really, really craving it this year.

[Jesse]

Anyone else ready for autumn? I'm like really, really craving it this year.

I was born ready.

[Phil]

I was born ready.

Well, I'm quite confident you have a lot to look forward to.

 

I honestly think if we can avoid a PV disaster (as in, a vertically stacked tornado from the mesopause to the middle troposphere), then you're in for the best winter since at least 2008-09, possibly since 1996-97. A multitude of factors are aligning magnificently. I'm willing to put money down on this one.

 

Right now, the residual off-equator Pacific warmth (N/S of the Niña signature) is helping enhance lift over the Pacific given the ITCZ/convective max is currently N of the equator/over the warmer SSTs (boreal summer). So, the typical wave1 Niña forcing signature isn't holding consistently, hence the chaotic pattern fluctuations and warm surges.

 

However, once we move into September/October/November, that ITCZ/convective latitude will propagate southward, over the cooler Equatorial waters (relatively speaking), and a more coherent Niña convertive signature will evolve.

[TT-SEA]

Anyone else ready for autumn? I'm like really, really craving it this year.

 

 

Its been a lovely summer here.   I am sure if the weather was suffocating like it has been in DC then people would really be craving fall.   But we never have that kind of weather.  

[TT-SEA]

The new run of the 00z EURO shows a big time crash from Saturday to Sunday. PDX goes from 22C 850mb temps down to 12C just in one day. Credit goes to Phil if that happens.

 

 

Not much ensemble support for that short cool-down late in the weekend... the 06Z GFS does not show it either.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls04/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls04-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-H6MUD8.png

[seattleweatherguy]

Low to mid 90s fri yikes...

[TT-SEA]

Fairly decent cool down early next week on the 12Z GFS... and also on the 12Z Canadian.

[Geos]

^

Significant trough developing over AK and south.

 

 

Edit:

 

Then the ridge pops back up...

 

[Front Ranger]

Well, it's looking like the overall pattern for the country will end up different this month than many of us were thinking.

 

Does this increase the chances of a below normal September? Stats coming soon...stay tuned.

[Jesse]

Well, it's looking like the overall pattern for the country will end up different this month than many of us were thinking.

 

Does this increase the chances of a below normal September? Stats coming soon...stay tuned.

Summer perfection through December!