August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

This run sucks..much of the US in the upper 90s/100s right into early/mid September.

 

I hate endless sunny / warm weather in September.  God knows we have seen our share in recent years.

[snow_wizard]

I'm talking about the pattern after the heat wave.

 

The WRF is showing next weekend cooler than this weekend.

[Guest Winterdog]

This block is absolutely gorgeous.  In the winter that placement pushes Arctic air in to the NW while moisture from the Pacific would undercut.  Pretty rare to see something like this in the summer.

I love it but that just happens to be the day we have 50 people over for our yearly family get together. I'm not seeing any precipitation with that trough that day though. Right???

[Deweydog]

We will be seeing highs in the 70s tomorrow. The models are advertising NW flow. Although I suppose they could be wrong. What is the CFS saying for tomorrow?

And you wonder why people don't take you seriously when you go on one of your "can't we all just get along???" flips.

[Phil]

I hate endless sunny / warm weather in September. God knows we have seen our share in recent years.

Same here, three consecutive blowtorch Septembers ('13-'15).

 

You guys will be fine this year, though. We'll torch for a fourth consecutive year, however.

[Timmy Supercell]

Shades of 2008 if PDX can find a way to score a 69 degree high tomorrow.

 

And then some upper 50's by 08/31...

[Deweydog]

And then some upper 50's by 08/31...

That was a potent lil' guy.

[snow_wizard]

I should have said the WRF shows next weekend being cooler than tomorrow will be.

[Jesse]

And you wonder why people don't take you seriously when you go on one of your "can't we all just get along???" flips.

 

Oh settle down, Sally. That was pretty mild.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS 4 Lyfe

[Timmy Supercell]

I hate endless sunny / warm weather in September.  God knows we have seen our share in recent years.

 

That seems to be more a normal occurrence down here, so I really would settle for 1-2 weeks of early Fall-ish type weather end of the month. I'm due for some 65 degree scattered showers type days.

[Deweydog]

Oh settle down, Sally. That was pretty mild.

Give him a little credit. He's obviously pretty young and energetic and his stuff lately hasn't been too outlandish, relatively speaking. You guys aren't too dissimilar looking at you 10 years ago, although he doesn't seem quite as mean-spirited.

[Deweydog]

Natural AC blowing through the house feels pretty nice.

[Jesse]

Give him a little credit. He's obviously pretty young and energetic and his stuff lately hasn't been too outlandish, relatively speaking. You guys aren't too dissimilar looking at you 10 years ago, although he doesn't seem quite as mean-spirited.

 

I'm still not entirely convinced he is for real. I could be wrong.

[Deweydog]

I'm still not entirely convinced he is for real. I could be wrong.

Think he lives on Stampede Pass?

[Jesse]

Think he lives on Stampede Pass?

 

It's a distinct possibility.

[Guest Winterdog]

The wind chimes are singing my song.  55F and dropping.  Very nice.

[TT-SEA]

Raining.  

[Deweydog]

Canadian alert!

[GobBluth]

Details?

[Jesse]

Canadian alert!

 

I don't see anything too outlandish, although the version I look at only goes out to 144 hours.

[ShawniganLake]

Canadian alert!

100?

[Deweydog]

100?

Probably not.

[Jesse]

Looks like the 00z op was a warm outlier for early next week.

 

[Geos]

Looked like it might rain, but didn't here. 75/59 for Sunday's temps. 

 

Friday looking like the warmest day of the week on the new GFS run. Then the crash.

 

 

[Tyler Mode]

43.3 degrees this morning at my station in Battle Ground...a new August record low! Barely beats out 43.4 on the 25th in 2012.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABATTL18

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E2837&table=1&banner=off

 

Not bad after being 102 two days ago.

[Jesse]

53 at PDX this morning. Not bad.

[Jesse]

The 00z Euro was nice and troughy from Saturday onward.

 

Might be just enough to help us avoid a third consecutive top warm August. We cool weather lovers are pretty greedy.

[Phil]

In regards to winter, I'm a huge fan of the observed tendency towards anticyclonic breaking (blocking) over the NPAC this summer.

 

However, the bigger question is if/how will the nature of the tropical forcings change after the (seasonal) southward shift of the ITCZ/convective network during October and November? Those warm off-equator SSTAs won't be in play to the extent they are currently.

[Timmy Supercell]

43.3 degrees this morning at my station in Battle Ground...a new August record low! Barely beats out 43.4 on the 25th in 2012.

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KWABATTL18

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E2837&table=1&banner=off

 

Not bad after being 102 two days ago.

 

Wow, my low is only 47 here in Klamath. Though very far from record.

[Phil]

I think the number one priority (for the PNW) this winter is to get those westerlies down to 50mb before December, for a deep layer +QBO. Will keep the NPAC anticyclone stronger and displaced poleward, as well as reduce equatorward convection/enhance off equator convection, which is theorized to help prevent destructive intraseasonal (MJO) interference during Niña winters, and keep forcing in the IO/MT as opposed to the Pacific.

 

Niña years w/ relative easterly shear stress over the Equatorial Pacific tend to fail in the PNW, including all of them in the 21st century.

[Deweydog]

January 2005 redux next week?

[TT-SEA]

January 2005 redux next week?

 

 

Looking less arctic with each run.   Southerly flow instead of northerly flow??    Oh my.

[Jesse]

January 2005 redux next week?

 

Luckily the Euro keeps troughing solidly over us, for now....

 

That does look uncannily like the January 2005 progression, though.

[Phil]

Well, the GFS goes back to its ice age idea in the d11-15 range.

[stuffradio]

It's raining quite hard right now. Free water for my potatoes!

[Deweydog]

Luckily the Euro keeps troughing solidly over us, for now....

 

That does look uncannily like the January 2005 progression, though.

Well, with some more luck, hard work, prayers and diversity the Euro will keep it there.

[Deweydog]

Well, the GFS goes back to its ice age idea in the d11-15 range.

Iceagelater.com

[Jesse]

Well, with some more luck, hard work, prayers and diversity the Euro will keep it there.

 

What is Celine Dion showing?

[stuffradio]

Never go full GFS.