TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 And now the 00Z WRF takes most of the rain south of the Seattle area. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 And now the 00Z WRF takes most of the rain south of the Seattle area. Should be a really nice day up your way. Right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 And now the 00Z WRF takes most of the rain south of the Seattle area.It was trending that way this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Should be a really nice day up your way. Right? I am just saying its a strange shift on the day of the event. Nothing more. Although now that I checked... the WRF does show sun tomorrow afternoon from Seattle to Bellingham... http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/intcld.24.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 00Z GFS looks like its farther north with the Saturday evening system compared to its 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 00Z GFS looks like its farther north with the Saturday evening system compared to its 12Z run.Much less clip in that clipper on this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 00Z WRF last night for this current system... http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016090500/images_d3/wa_pcp24.48.0000.gif 00Z WRF from tonight... I guess it did not shift south but rather the north side is drier. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp24.24.0000.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Much less clip in that clipper on this run. No doubt. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 No doubt.Canadian is further west with the weekend system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Canadian is further west with the weekend system Not by much. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Not by much. Quite a bit different than its 12Z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Not by much.Trough. Wet. Cloudy. Depressing. Brrrrr. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Trough. Wet. Cloudy. Depressing. Brrrrr. If I mention ridging then I am just wishcasting because its never nice here and its never warm. If I mention troughing or model trends either way... then I am terrified of troughing. When in fact... I am just discussing a trend one way or another. This morning the ECMWF came in much more robust with the weekend trough. I reported it. No big deal. I reported on the change the other way on the 00Z GFS in the same way. 12Z ECMWF is quite a bit stronger the shortwave next weekend... following the 12Z GFS. 00Z GFS looks like its farther north with the Saturday evening system compared to its 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 I was just messing around. Geesh, dude. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 I was just messing around. Geesh, dude. No... its annoying. Just discuss the models. For the record... I like variety like most of us here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 No doubt the Canadian is considerably more robust with the weekend short wave than the GFS. This seems to be the time frame where the GFS often comes in too weak with things like this. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 00Z WRF last night for this current system... http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/2016090500/images_d3/wa_pcp24.48.0000.gif 00Z WRF from tonight... I guess it did not shift south but rather the north side is drier. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_pcp24.24.0000.gif It's weird to see such a drastic change within the 24 hour forecast mark, figures it would be on the dry side. That said, while the rainfall has been pretty underwhelming here so far the 0z WRF from tonight went way to dry even in the first 6 hours. There's already been around 0.09"+ across virtually all of Southern Vancouver Island, and looking at the radar there's still a steady flow of showers coming in, so totals will probably come in over 0.1" in a large area shown to receive 0.01" or less; not very good accuracy for a forecast resolution within 6-12 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 No doubt the Canadian is considerably more robust with the weekend short wave than the GFS. This seems to be the time frame where the GFS often comes in too weak with things like this. You don't discuss the Canadian model much. Certainly not last night when the GFS and Canadian were opposite of tonight. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 You don't discuss the Canadian model much. Certainly not last night when the GFS and Canadian were opposite of tonight. You do the same thing Just discuss the models 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 You do the same thingJust discuss the modelsTrying to discuss the models. I point out both sides. You should point these things out to Jim once in awhile too. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Trying to discuss the models. I point out both sides. You should point these things out to Jim once in awhile too. Jim isn't an a** 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 No doubt the Canadian is considerably more robust with the weekend short wave than the GFS. This seems to be the time frame where the GFS often comes in too weak with things like this.00z GFS ensembles look better with that feature too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Jim isn't an a**Being objective is the goal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 No... its annoying. Just discuss the models. For the record... I like variety like most of us here.Okiedokie, Dr. Drizzle. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 I think we can all agree that Tim is probably the most objective poster here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 It's no longer a strong storm and it's probably going to end up well north, but I always find the possibility of hurricane remnants making it into our region fun to follow. They can pump some vigor into our typically weak early season frontal systems. http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/ep201613_model_zpsq3hlowib.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 It's no longer a strong storm and it's probably going to end up well north, but I always find the possibility of hurricane remnants making it into our region fun to follow. They can pump some vigor into our typically weak early season frontal systems. http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/ep201613_model_zpsq3hlowib.gifWould be quite an experience! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 It's no longer a strong storm and it's probably going to end up well north, but I always find the possibility of hurricane remnants making it into our region fun to follow. They can pump some vigor into our typically weak early season frontal systems. http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/ep201613_model_zpsq3hlowib.gifThat is the weekend clipper system Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 That is the weekend clipper systemWell it's about to get invigorated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Maybe we'll get one of those coming into our south in January this year #1880 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Clippermania!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 00z Euro looks great through day 7. Very robust with the weekend clipper. Beyond that it's showing kind of a strange pattern. Unusually broad ridge. Very warm at face value. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 EPS ensemble mean is very warm through the end of the run after Sunday. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 06z is much stronger with the clipper than the 00z. Looks like the GFS finally is catching up. Also, a lot of ensemble members on the 06z indicate the potential of a quick crash of any ridge that develops, days 10-12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Cool, wet and even a little breezy this morning. Lovely. Definitely feels like fall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Mode Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Feels like a typical post warm front winter morning out there. Mild at 54 degrees, but wet.Three years ago today I measured 1.44" of rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Feels like a typical post warm front winter morning out there. Mild at 54 degrees, but wet. 54 with rain is pretty cool this time of year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Nice morning up here! Glad the system mostly stayed south. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 Its been a relatively active hurricane season in the Eastern Pac. Does that ever have a bearing on resetting/setting our weather patterns? I don't know if there are any trends or stats to support anything of any consequence but just wondering if that could set the table in anyway for Oct. which some feel is important for what may be down the road. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted September 6, 2016 Report Share Posted September 6, 2016 It's no longer a strong storm and it's probably going to end up well north, but I always find the possibility of hurricane remnants making it into our region fun to follow. They can pump some vigor into our typically weak early season frontal systems. http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/ep201613_model_zpsq3hlowib.gif Prince Rupert is progged for 2-3" of rain Friday-Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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