September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

Yes, but you have to remember that the PNW is kind of a different animal. Some of their best winters have come during winters that weren't great for most the nation.

The rest of the nation is irrelevant. Compare the temperature anomalies over the PNW..fairly straightforward. Lowland snowfall is more quirky though, as there's a similar distribution of lowland snowfall events in the two analog sets.

 

If anything the blockier analogs are more "consistent", while the zonal analogs are more "unpredictable", with some zonal years featuring significant events with borderline thermal profiles, while others were pure crap throughout outside the mountains. Most of the blocky years featured more widespread lowland snowfall events.

[Front Ranger]

Basically, I think the October correlation that matters for the PNW most is pretty simple: you want GOA blocking, you don't want a big ol' GOA/Aleutian low. Whether that ends up as troughy/wet or ridgy/dry, cooler is better.

 

During neutral/-ENSO, I haven't found much of a precip correlation between October and good/bad winters following. Just temps and general pattern.

[Front Ranger]

I know and I have read most of it.  No reason to think that it will suddenly snap back.  It might but it might not.  The 1981-2010 averages for Shawnigan Lake show December averages more than 0.5F colder.  And nothing has changed in the last 6 years.  36 years seems too long to just be written off as fluke. 

 

Then again, a lot of things go in cycles when it comes to climate...

[Jesse]

Basically, I think the October correlation that matters for the PNW most is pretty simple: you want GOA blocking, you don't want a big ol' GOA/Aleutian low. Whether that ends up as troughy/wet or ridgy/dry, cooler is better.

 

During neutral/-ENSO, I haven't found much of a precip correlation between October and good/bad winters following. Just temps and general pattern.

Well put.

[Phil]

Whoops, yes the first list.

 

However, again I think you have to remember that the PNW can do very well with winters that don't fit your definition of blocky. And 1983-84, blockier though it may have been, was really no better for the PNW than 1998-99. As just one example.

Are you talking about snowfall? Or temperature?

 

Because 1983/84 definitely featured more continental influence in the PNW, at least in the overall sense. The upper levels were super warm at times during January/February of 1999.

[Weather101]

We do have a couple of factors that could put us back on track.

 

1. Record high positive height and surface pressure anoms over the North Pacific this summer (historically a good sign)

2. Extreme solar minimum (probably a grand minimum coming up)

3. Coming off of a super El Nino...probably the most extreme warm ENSO event since the early 1940s. This could have given the atmosphere a proverbial kick in the arse.

 

I think there is a reasonable chance would could see the peak of our winter average out around mid January over the next 5 years or so. One fact that absolutely blows my mind is Seattle actually averaged colder in February than December during the 1890 to 1940 period, not to mention January!

1890 to 1940...... Climate has changed. That's looking way to far back in my opinion if you have hope of winters like that. Is it impossible we will have a cold and record breaking winter in the future ? For sure it is. But the climate has changed and great winters seem to be every some odd years. I don't think a warm October

or cold October effects or shows what the winter may turn out to be. Best thing to do is just sit back and unstress and let the cards fall where they may.

[Phil]

Basically, I think the October correlation that matters for the PNW most is pretty simple: you want GOA blocking, you don't want a big ol' GOA/Aleutian low. Whether that ends up as troughy/wet or ridgy/dry, cooler is better.

 

During neutral/-ENSO, I haven't found much of a precip correlation between October and good/bad winters following. Just temps and general pattern.

Yeah, definitely agree with the GOA correlation. The strongest signal I've found in the NOAA data (except for heights over western Siberia) is with heights over Alaska/NW BC.

 

Also, it seems as if a trough to the west and/or southwest of the Aleutians is often a good sign, given it's often a hallmark of a favorable EPO/WPO given the higher climatological wavenumber in October versus that of D/J/F.

[Timmy Supercell]

I think there is a reasonable chance would could see the peak of our winter average out around mid January over the next 5 years or so.

 

Nope. January is an early Spring month.

[Front Ranger]

Are you talking about snowfall? Or temperature?

 

Because 1983/84 definitely featured more continental influence in the PNW, at least in the overall sense. The upper levels were super warm at times during January/February of 1999.

 

Combination of Arctic air/snowfall. 

 

I mean, 2007-08 was a pretty cool winter for the entire West and much of the Midwest, despite having very little Arctic air. 

 

 

[Phil]

1890 to 1940...... Climate has changed. That's looking way to far back in my opinion if you have hope of winters like that. Is it impossible we will have a cold and record breaking winter in the future ? For sure it is. But the climate has changed and great winters seem to be every some odd years. I don't think a warm October

or cold October effects or shows what the winter may turn out to be. Best thing to do is just sit back and unstress and let the cards fall where they may.

Let's not forget what October of 1942 looked like..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F0063EEC-19B0-48CE-AF2D-EE0680C6B1B4_zpspaaxxg1h.png

[Timmy Supercell]

Any one month shouldn't dictate what a season will turn out to be. Last Fall I had a really warm October (4th warmest Mean) yet I had a snowy winter. (almost 2x above average snowfall).

[Jesse]

Pretty chilly month for the PNW so far. Certainly cooler than many here (myself included) were thinking/predicting. This should stay the same or even go down a bit more in spots over the next week.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, definitely agree with the GOA correlation. The strongest signal I've found in the NOAA data (except for heights over western Siberia) is with heights over Alaska/NW BC.

 

Also, it seems as if a trough to the west and/or southwest of the Aleutians is often a good sign, given it's often a hallmark of a favorable EPO/WPO given the higher climatological wavenumber in October versus that of D/J/F.

 

Perhaps, but a cold Alaska in October is not a bad sign. 2008, 1992, 1988, 1985, 1970, and 1956 were all very cold in Alaska. 

 

1990, 1983, and 1978 were all below normal as well.

[Phil]

Combination of Arctic air/snowfall.

 

I mean, 2007-08 was a pretty cool winter for the entire West and much of the Midwest, despite having very little Arctic air.

 

DJF08TDeptUS (1).png

That's the point, though.

 

Looking at the NSIDC data, while zonal years can sometimes run cooler than average, they often fall short of delivering lowland snowfall due to a lack of continental/arctic influence.

 

The zonal years also have a much higher "failure rate" than the blocky years, which usually deliver accumulating to the lowland locations on a more frequent, widespread basis overall.

[Jesse]

Does anyone have the highs and lows for Portland next week based on the 12z Euro?

[Weather101]

Let's not forget what October of 1942 looked like..

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F0063EEC-19B0-48CE-AF2D-EE0680C6B1B4_zpspaaxxg1h.png

I don't see the point your making lol

[Jesse]

I know this is a tad off topic but this evening before the shooting my wife, daughter and myself were at a local restaurant having dinner and I kept thinking to myself what if someone comes in and starts shooting, what is our best exit routes, ect...not exactly a fun relaxing time. Then we get home and hear about the mall shooting which is only 20 minutes from us and at a place I have been to many many times through the years. I just don't like being out in public anymore which I guess means the bad guys have won. This country really needs to look at the mental health crisis instead of looking the other way.

Anyway back to weather...

It's guns dude. Not mental health. That is a diatraction. People have mental health issues everywhere but we lead the western world by a huge margin when it comes to this sort of thing. Our ridiculously lenient gun control laws are the factor.

 

Anyway, back to weather.

[Phil]

Perhaps, but a cold Alaska in October is not a bad sign. 2008, 1992, 1988, 1985, 1970, and 1956 were all very cold in Alaska.

 

1990, 1983, and 1978 were all below normal as well.

Yeah, I usually don't use temperatures as much as I do 500mb geopotential heights. The Alaska/BC correlation I was referring to includes all years since 1950, FWIW. No filtering for ENSO/QBO.

 

When tuning for ENSO/QBO, I get a different result, with the NPAC state providing the highest correlation. Still, Octobers with weaker Alaskan vortices are generally followed by better winters overall.

[Phil]

I don't see the point your making lol

In response to your post here (which I generally agree with).

 

I don't think a warm October or cold October effects or shows what the winter may turn out to be. Best thing to do is just sit back and unstress and let the cards fall where they may.

[snow_wizard]

1890 to 1940...... Climate has changed. That's looking way to far back in my opinion if you have hope of winters like that. Is it impossible we will have a cold and record breaking winter in the future ? For sure it is. But the climate has changed and great winters seem to be every some odd years. I don't think a warm October

or cold October effects or shows what the winter may turn out to be. Best thing to do is just sit back and unstress and let the cards fall where they may.

 

I respectfully disagree.  The solar aspect is the wild card.  Until this major solar minimum plays out we have no way of knowing.  FWIW I think this winter will have some teeth regardless of what October does.  If the GOA ridge remains a big player I think it could be a huge winter.

[Front Ranger]

Neutral/weak -ENSO Octobers with average temp at OLM. Using MEI between +.3  and -1.

 

1950: 48.89

1953: 51.97

1959: 51.16

1960: 51.06

1961: 48.40

1962: 50.98

1966: 49.03

1967: 52.50

1970: 47.53

1978: 50.52

1980: 51.90

1981: 49.68

1984: 48.35

1985: 49.16

1989: 49.66

1990: 48.44

1995: 50.74

1996: 49.15

1998: 49.87

2000: 49.44

2001: 48.34

2005: 52.16

2008: 49.56

2011: 50.29

2012: 50.77

2013: 48.21

 

Here are the following cold seasons (Nov-Mar) for the Octobers that were below 50 degrees. Dec-Feb look essentially the same, but I wanted to include the whole cold season.

 

 

 

 

 

And here are the ones following above 50 degrees.

 

 

 

 

 

Like any correlation, there are exceptions and nothing is guaranteed, but cool Octobers are more likely to precede winters with a favorable pattern.

[snow_wizard]

It's guns dude. Not mental health. That is a diatraction. People have mental health issues everywhere but we lead the western world by a huge margin when it comes to this sort of thing. Our ridiculously lenient gun control laws are the factor.

 

Anyway, back to weather.

 

The Constitution.  We can't go changing that, because if we do what's to stop other amendments from being tampered with.  I agree with the 2nd amendment anyway.

[snow_wizard]

Neutral/weak -ENSO Octobers with average temp at OLM. Using MEI between +.3  and -1.

 

1950: 48.89

1953: 51.97

1959: 51.16

1960: 51.06

1961: 48.40

1962: 50.98

1966: 49.03

1967: 52.50

1970: 47.53

1978: 50.52

1980: 51.90

1981: 49.68

1984: 48.35

1985: 49.16

1989: 49.66

1990: 48.44

1995: 50.74

1996: 49.15

1998: 49.87

2000: 49.44

2001: 48.34

2005: 52.16

2008: 49.56

2011: 50.29

2012: 50.77

2013: 48.21

 

Here are the following cold seasons (Nov-Mar) for the Octobers that were below 50 degrees.

 

 

cooloct.png

 

 

And here are the ones following above 50 degrees.

 

 

warmoct.png

 

 

Like any correlation, there are exceptions and nothing is guaranteed, but cool Octobers are more likely to precede winters with a favorable pattern.

 

I totally agree.  I think even more important is having high surface pressure anoms over the NE Pacific in October.  The correlation is crazy with that.  Even better than just the plain NPI.

[snow_wizard]

Any one month shouldn't dictate what a season will turn out to be. Last Fall I had a really warm October (4th warmest Mean) yet I had a snowy winter. (almost 2x above average snowfall).

 

I have spent probably hundreds of hours looking at the October connection and it is unmistakable.  That is especially true when you add certain caveats. 

[Front Ranger]

Pretty chilly month for the PNW so far. Certainly cooler than many here (myself included) were thinking/predicting. This should stay the same or even go down a bit more in spots over the next week.image.png

 

Just a near average month at SEA, though!

 

And AST continues to be a major warm outlier, rocking a +1.5 anomaly and just one below normal day all month.

[snow_wizard]

Just a near average month at SEA, though!

 

And AST continues to be a major warm outlier, rocking a +1.5 anomaly and just one below normal day all month.

 

I think it's pretty obvious the AST sensor is toast.  With SEA it's just UHI.  The third runway is especially bad.

 

They really need to create a designated place for official records to be kept for Seattle, that will not be disturbed.  Crying shame the SEA records are pretty much meaningless now.  A long period of record shot to hell.

[snow_wizard]

Just to elaborate, here's how the "blocky" winters looked over the lower-48:

 

 

Here's how the "zonal" winters looked over the lower-48:

 

 

Wanna guess which group featured troughier Octobers in the PNW?

 

1984 was actually a very cold / troughy October for the NW.  It even had an Arctic outbreak.  That winter was legendarily blocky.  Just pointing it out since you have 1984 in the ridgy October list.

[MossMan]

Normally I don't include November, but that one was truly historic.

That one was definitely an honor to be a part of...I was only 9 but still remember it like it was yesterday!

[Jesse]

The Constitution. We can't go changing that, because if we do what's to stop other amendments from being tampered with. I agree with the 2nd amendment anyway.

I realize this should probably be on the OT thread. I actually agree with the second amendment as well. I am by no means in favor of taking everybody's guns away. I do think that we need to consider having more in the way of common sense gun control laws, though. Unfortunately gun lobbies like the NRA will run a smear campaign against even the slightest attempt at increased regulation (more thorough background checks, closing the gun show loophole, etc) Of course they don't care about the safety of everyday people OR the second amendment, IMO. They just want to sell as many guns as humanly possible, and increased regulations get in the way of that.

[TT-SEA]

Late September perfection out there... 13 out of the last 16 days have been mostly sunny here.

 

[Phil]

Neutral/weak -ENSO Octobers with average temp at OLM. Using MEI between +.3 and -1.

 

1950: 48.89

1953: 51.97

1959: 51.16

1960: 51.06

1961: 48.40

1962: 50.98

1966: 49.03

1967: 52.50

1970: 47.53

1978: 50.52

1980: 51.90

1981: 49.68

1984: 48.35

1985: 49.16

1989: 49.66

1990: 48.44

1995: 50.74

1996: 49.15

1998: 49.87

2000: 49.44

2001: 48.34

2005: 52.16

2008: 49.56

2011: 50.29

2012: 50.77

2013: 48.21

 

Here are the following cold seasons (Nov-Mar) for the Octobers that were below 50 degrees. Dec-Feb look essentially the same, but I wanted to include the whole cold season.

 

 

cooloct.png

 

 

And here are the ones following above 50 degrees.

 

 

warmoct.png

 

 

Like any correlation, there are exceptions and nothing is guaranteed, but cool Octobers are more likely to precede winters with a favorable pattern.

Out of curiosity, what happens if I remove all -QBO years from this list?

 

Winters following cold Octobers:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/775AD5A3-9829-432E-9302-FB316DAF6F21_zpsdl0pepyl.png

 

Winters following warm Octobers:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5F790CE6-078B-4294-B402-701A2F35EEDC_zpsaoaubyrd.png

 

Looks like the signal essentially vanishes.

[snow_wizard]

The 6 to 10 day outlook is quite cold.  Yesterday's looked like this also.  I think even SEA will put up some nice minus departures next week.

 

[snow_wizard]

Out of curiosity, what happens if I remove all -QBO years from this list?

 

Winters following cold Octobers:

 

 

Winters following warm Octobers:

 

 

Looks like the signal essentially vanishes.

 

The signal for the SE is pretty strong.  Opposite of what we want for a cold NW winter if October is warm.

[Deweydog]

I realize this should probably be on the OT thread. I actually agree with the second amendment as well. I am by no means in favor of taking everybody's guns away. I do think that we need to consider having more in the way of common sense gun control laws, though. Unfortunately gun lobbies like the NRA will run a smear campaign against even the slightest attempt at increased regulation (more thorough background checks, closing the gun show loophole, etc) Of course they don't care about the safety of everyday people OR the second amendment, IMO. They just want to sell as many guns as humanly possible, and increased regulations get in the way of that.

 

I agree with this, but it's not a solution. If someone wants to procure a firearm, even with tightened regulation, they will. The human condition is far more powerful than any amount of regulation, unless you go the distance and dismantle the second amendment.

[Phil]

1984 was actually a very cold / troughy October for the NW. It even had an Arctic outbreak. That winter was legendarily blocky. Just pointing it out since you have 1984 in the ridgy October list.

There is no "ridgy October" list. I divided the Octobers into those followed by cold/blocky winters, and those followed by warm/zonal winters.

 

The colder, blockier winters (on average) featured ridgier Octobers than those followed by warm/zonal winters. That doesn't necessarily mean the Octobers were warmer/colder at the surface, as I was only looking at 500mb geopotential heights.

[Jesse]

I agree with this, but it's not a solution. If someone wants to procure a firearm, even with tightened regulation, they will. The human condition is far more powerful than any amount of regulation, unless you go the distance and dismantle the second amendment.

It may not be an unequivocal solution, obviously there will always be some degree of gun violence, but common sense dictates that at very least we shouldn't make it SO easy. Small deterrents can pay big dividends in many borderline scenarios.

[Phil]

Also, when looking for correlations, I think it's worthwhile to account for the significant changes to the climatological circulation(s) that have occurred since the late 1970s. These "correlations" will almost certainly change with time, as the systematic boundary state(s) change.

 

Using older years might be something to avoid. I'd stick to years within the satellite era to avoid any false/unrepresentative signals, which are already evident in the mid/upper level climatologies between early 20th century years, and late 20th/early 21st years.

[Jesse]

Sorry for the OT guns control stuff. You guys are actually having a pretty interesting discussion about October correlations.

 

Mods or admin, feel free to move the gun control comments to the OT thread.

[Weather101]

I respectfully disagree. The solar aspect is the wild card. Until this major solar minimum plays out we have no way of knowing. FWIW I think this winter will have some teeth regardless of what October does. If the GOA ridge remains a big player I think it could be a huge winter.

I think you just try to look at anything to help have hope which is 100% fine and I'm okay with because I like your posts. I just don't see how a warm or cold October means anything for the winter... So if we have a cold June will the rest of the summer be cold too? No most likely not. As for the years you posted above I believe we can have good winters but climate has changed and I'm pretty sure you can see that.

[Kayla]

Does anyone have the highs and lows for Portland next week based on the 12z Euro?

 

Mon-87, Tues-71, Wed-72, Thu-69, Fri-64 Sat-57, Sun-62

 

12z EPS isn't out yet but the numbers from the 00z were: 88, 72, 72, 68, 65, 63, 62