Timmy Supercell Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 KLMT currently is at 1.35" (if wunderground is correct) that makes it only 10th wettest. If we get more similar fronts coming through before the end of October I could get closer to 2014. My top 5 wettest. 1950 - 2.96"1979 - 2.84"1956 - 2.25"2014 - 2.21"2004 - 2.07" It doesn't take much to change this months numbers in Klamath. In 2014 only 2 days (22nd, 31st) accounted for about half of the 2.21". Also note that was a really warm month with an indian summer. It was one of the diverse Octobers. The windstorm on the 25th was good here too. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Portland radar is down again. Must have been overworked from all the rain it's been seeing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Its also your specialty. I've never studied any of that stuff, since my interest lies in climatology more so than weather prediction. So from where I stand, long term analogs are a crapshoot. I'll just wait and see what happens, and then study the result. But I definitely see the value in what you're doing, with regards to potential for improvement. Trial and error...Thanks. I do see your point, though. In the past I've paid the price for taking particular analog aggregates too literally at face value, particularly w/ the older years and even w/ modern stratospheric dynamics. There are definitely limits. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 I notice 1924 was another wet October at SLE, we should pass it this week to move into 3rd all-time. What kind of an ENSO match is this year to that one? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 I notice 1924 was another wet October at SLE, we should pass it this week to move into 3rd all-time. What kind of an ENSO match is this year to that one? Interesting... a Nina formed in the summer of 1924 but slowly faded over the winter of 1924-25 and became a modertate El Nino late in the summer of 1925. The lead up to and including Christmas of 1924 was a winter wonderland in my area. Christmas Day had a high of 27 and a low of 8 with almost a foot of snow on the ground at the Snoqualmie Falls station. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Will you guys take a Seahawks super bowl or a 3 day blizzard? 3 Day Blizzard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 I think we will still have some good chances in January and February as well. We just can't take any chances of waiting until the start of January because then we only have 1.5 months of a realistic time frame of getting an Arctic Blast. Yeah, I've noticed the GFS starting to look chilly too. Things should start getting exciting as we head into November.You're right. We need to take decisive action now!! What should we do? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 I notice 1924 was another wet October at SLE, we should pass it this week to move into 3rd all-time. What kind of an ENSO match is this year to that one? Weak Nina. Interestingly 1924-25 was the only La Nina winter between 1918 and 1933. Quite an anomaly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Interesting... a Nina formed in the summer of 1924 but slowly faded over the winter of 1924-25 and became a modertate El Nino late in the summer of 1925. The lead up to and including Christmas of 1924 was a winter wonderland in my area. Christmas Day had a high of 27 and a low of 8 with almost a foot of snow on the ground at the Snoqualmie Falls station. Salem was 27/5 on Christmas day. There were about 2 weeks of really cold weather in December that year and then the rest of the winter torched. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 You're right. We need to take decisive action now!! What should we do? Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 One thing is for sure...the soils around here are going to be reaching their saturation point early this year, if we get another extended atmospheric river again in the next few weeks flooding will be a much bigger deal. On the snow front...I can't wait until January, I want a 1985, 1996, 2006, or 2010 November repeat (I think I have 2010 correct) all featured great November snows followed by more later on! Let's do this! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 12z GFS has 500mb thickness values dropping into the teens, -10c 925mb temps for Juneau next weekend. A nick of arctic air. Haven't seen that in October... I do know that when we get entrenched arctic air, it blows a lot of cold air to you guys. 2 Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 So, about that NH Hadley Cell.. Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpg 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Big shot into the strat next week on the GFS, FWIW: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 So, about that NH Hadley Cell.. Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpgAnd how does this influence things going forward? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 So, about that NH Hadley Cell.. Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpg Is that good or bad? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 And how does this influence things going forward?Depends. This is just Hadley Cell intensity, not latitude. Reduced off equator convective integral, sinking air more prevalent over the subtropics, stronger mid-latitude U-wind component (jet) in this case. This over the hemisphere as a whole, not necessarily locally, but still helpful w/ forward progression. Somewhat Niño-ish on a latitudinal basis, I guess, though spatial orientation of Pacific forcing by longitude certainly isn't Niñoish, rather more of a longitudinally contracted/intense Walker Cell. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Depends. This is just Hadley Cell intensity, not latitude. Reduced off equator convective integral, sinking air more prevalent over the subtropics, stronger mid-latitude U-wind component (jet) in this case. This over the hemisphere as a whole, not necessarily locally, but still helpful w/ forward progression. Somewhat Niño-ish on a latitudinal basis, I guess, though spatial orientation of Pacific forcing by longitude certainly isn't Niñoish, rather more of a longitudinally contracted/intense Walker Cell. You made it seem really important in your post... not at all important in this response though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 You made it seem really important in your post... not at all important in this response though.Important in what context? It's a record breaking anomaly with (at least) near term/subseasonal consequences. Depending on the reason(s) for the anomaly, it could mean a number of things. Regardless, it's notable and probably worth watching in my opinion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Important in what context? It's a record breaking anomaly with (at least) near term/subseasonal consequences. That makes it sound like a really important fact... but then you said it does not mean much for us. I guess its just interesting in general. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 That makes it sound like a really important fact... but then you said it does not mean much for us. I guess its just interesting in general.I never said that. I think it's too early to know. Feel free to make your own interpretations. Just go to ESRL and plot the relative meridional streamfunction anomalies. No need to rely on me. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 I never said that. I think it's too early to know. Feel free to make your own interpretations. Just go to ESRL and plot the relative meridional streamfunction anomalies. No need to rely on me. You said it could mean anything for us... sort of Nino and sort of Nina. I was just thinking it was a clue for our winter but you made it clear there is no way of knowing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 12z GFS has 500mb thickness values dropping into the teens, -10c 925mb temps for Juneau next weekend. A nick of arctic air. Haven't seen that in October... I do know that when we get entrenched arctic air, it blows a lot of cold air to you guys. Great sign, send us some of that Arctic air down to us! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 I'm not sure I like what the models are showing the last week of October. Here is the latest edition of the 12z EURO for days 8 to 10. It shows a Split Flow/Cut-Off Low pattern. This is a stubborn pattern that takes a while to get rid off. It's more common in El Nino Winters. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016101712/192/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016101712/216/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016101712/240/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Looks like October will finish with a moderately negative SOI value. A few values as low as -25 over the last week. Definitely not typical of a Niña fall/winter. Very weak background state as of late. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 Reports of around 2" of rain in an hour near Lake Oswego. Been hit with several major downpours in McMinnville earlier. Not registering much at the airport as the showers were training in a very narrow path. Airport is less than two miles away. Really would like to have radar today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 This has the vibes of a winter that'll be dominated by intraseasonal forcing(s), given the paltry lowfreq/ENSO forcing component. So, factors like QBO/strat, solar, and near/off-equator SSTA influences on convection will probably matter. The quiet IO/-IOD is a good example here..equatorward shift in the high there cooled the IO SSTAs hence the subsidence there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 17, 2016 Report Share Posted October 17, 2016 3.78" here for a 4 day total. 5.23" of rain total for the month. Turning a bit nicer right now. Have some sun peaking through the clouds. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 PDX still waiting for that first sub-60 day... 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 SEA is over 6 inches of rain for October now. Here is the list of other years matching that criteria at SEA in chronological order: 1947 - 8.951950 - 7.211955 - 6.601956 - 6.711967 - 6.661981 - 6.402003 - 8.962012 - 6.17 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 SEA is over 6 inches of rain for October now. Here is the list of other years matching that criteria at SEA in chronological order: 1947 - 8.951950 - 7.211955 - 6.601956 - 6.711967 - 6.661981 - 6.402003 - 8.962012 - 6.17Did any of those winters produce anything worth a crap? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 18, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Did any of those winters produce anything worth a crap? Ever read up on November 1955? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Did any of those winters produce anything worth a crap? Down here Klamath Falls had 100.60" of snow in the '55-'56 winter so I'd say yes. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Down here Klamath Falls had 100.60" of snow in the '55-'56 winter so I'd say yes. I just did a short amount of reading on Klamath Falls. As silly as this is, I never knew just how close it was to the Ocean. Just goes to show elevation is king. You guys must get hammered with snow every year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 Reports of around 2" of rain in an hour near Lake Oswego. Been hit with several major downpours in McMinnville earlier. Not registering much at the airport as the showers were training in a very narrow path. Airport is less than two miles away. Really would like to have radar today.I can confirm this. I was driving through West Linn around 1:00, it was some of the heaviest rain I've seen in my life and there were some nearby lightning strikes. The rain was coming down so hard that my windshield wipers were useless, I could barely even see the road. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tundra Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 So, about that NH Hadley Cell.. Credit for graph goes to Sam Lillo: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F9984872-0035-410E-8467-B49FEF65F25C_zpsfvbac13i.jpg This must be good news. This past Winter the only real Wintry event we got down to sea level was the minor PDX snow event in early January which coincides with the strongest Northern hadley cell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 I will be coming up with the best analogs based on the number of geese migrating over my house this season. Stay tuned for a deep analysis... I am sure it will be valuable. 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 PDX still waiting for that first sub-60 day... Back to back days of that 60-61 not even showing up on those over the top 10 minute observation updates. The agony! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 I did not expect today to be so wet. 1.66" of rain so far today! 11.58" on the month. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted October 18, 2016 Report Share Posted October 18, 2016 I will be coming up with the best analogs based on the number of geese migrating over my house this season. Stay tuned for a deep analysis... I am sure it will be valuable.I have found that geese migrations are generally unreliable analogs. What I like to use is squirrel girth. The fatter they are, the colder the winter. They are some of the fattest I've seen this year. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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