October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[HighlandExperience]

Blame china and their non existent air quality laws....1.3 billion people to provide power for and they'll do it without any air scrubbers on their boiler exhaust systems etc....

They are only doing what we did. But yes it is problematic. Our only hope is solar forces now.

[Sometimesdylan]

or a nuclear winter...

[Weather101]

Not sure. I feel like just a shell of a human being.

What phone do you have?

[Tundra]

The newest editions of the 12z models are in. The EURO is much more aggressive with a Split Flow/Cut-Off Low pattern than both the GFS and GEM.

[Phil]

This is nonsense.

 

First of all, we've been pumping out greenhouse gases since the 19th century. And second, nobody in the scientific community denies the existence of natural climate change. That would be absurd. The issue is with GHG's, especially CO2, reflecting longwave radiation back towards the planet and adding an unnatural amount of warming to the system, regardless of background state.

This is both wrong and a misinterpretation of my post regarding attribution ratios. It's also a mischaracterization of the workings of the greenhouse effect itself.

 

1) Simple radiative transfer physics dictate the radiative forcing per doubling of CO^2 is ~ 3.7W/m^2 which is analogous to ~1.2C of surface warming. Up until 1950, the CO^2 content increased by less than 40ppm. So given the relative content fractal at the time, that's around 0.57W/m^2, or a statistically insignificant amount of surface warming.

 

2) I never said scientists denied natural climate change. How exactly you could derive that from my post is a mystery to me. I stated, clearly and concisely, that many scientists deny significant natural climate change (within the resolution in question), despite evidence to the contrary throughout the proxy records.

[Phil]

Also, the mechanism through which CO^2 warms the planetary temperature isn't via a direct backradiative conduit, as was suggested. The whole "reflecting radiation back to earth" thing is nothing more than a gross oversimplification.

 

What happens is the molecule (tri-atomic) absorbs IR within particular frequencies not fully saturated within the AW. Upon absorption, the molecule enters an excited state and transfers some of this kinetic energy to non-homogeneously emitting bi-atomic N^2/O^2 molecules in the upper troposphere, where it can be thermalized directly and diffused through the column given the molecular collisional frequency in that domain is higher than CO^2's emissive frequency. This process raises the emissive-equilibrium altitude across the globe (where radiative exchange ratios are analogous to the planetary greybody temperature derived via the Stefan-Boltzmann equations).

 

In reality, the IR portion in reference within the AW is saturated no more than 2 meters off the ground. The changes to radiative balance are rooted aloft, not at the surface.

[Phil]

All of the ensemble suites (EPS, GEFS, CMC, etc) made a jump towards a high octane +EPO type pattern in the medium/long range, with a weaker -NAM component.

 

End result is a wetter/warmer week 2 locally (and nationally).

[BLI snowman]

What phone do you have?

 

Motorola Moto X. 

[TT-SEA]

All of the ensemble suites (EPS, GEFS, CMC, etc) made a jump towards a high octane +EPO type pattern in the medium/long range, with a weaker -NAM component.

 

End result is a wetter/warmer week 2 locally (and nationally).

 

Good news... we certainly need the rain here.   Its tinder dry out there!  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good news... we certainly need the rain here.   Its tinder dry out there!  

 

I am looking forward to sunny skies and highs 70-75 for the next several days out in Tulsa. 

[TT-SEA]

I am looking forward to sunny skies and highs 70-75 for the next several days out in Tulsa. 

 

So jealous.

[Brennan]

Amazingly mankind survived without them for the first one million years of walking the Earth.

Christianity hasn't been a discussion for a long time on here but i remembered you being a believer in Christ. Do you believe in Old Earth or New Earth?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

All of the ensemble suites (EPS, GEFS, CMC, etc) made a jump towards a high octane +EPO type pattern in the medium/long range, with a weaker -NAM component.

 

End result is a wetter/warmer week 2 locally (and nationally).

 

Locally as in PNW or Maryland?

[Phil]

Locally as in PNW or Maryland?

Referring to the PNW.

 

My stuff is in the eastern forum.

[OKwx2k4]

I am looking forward to sunny skies and highs 70-75 for the next several days out in Tulsa.

It's not that enjoyable when you live down here. Trust me. I'm so very ready for winter.

[FroYoBro]

Christianity hasn't been a discussion for a long time on here but i remembered you being a believer in Christ. Do you believe in Old Earth or New Earth?

Let's not start a religious conversation in here...

[Bryant]

Let's not start a religious conversation in here...

It was a harmless question

[Deweydog]

It was a harmless question

Jesus is dead, just like George Washington and Osama Bin Laden.

 

And the earth has been around four and a half billion years, give or take.

 

Good we got all that straight before winter!

[Deweydog]

58 at 4pm. I think they're gonna do it!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's not that enjoyable when you live down here. Trust me. I'm so very ready for winter.

 

Where in Oklahoma are you from? I saw it was what about 90 on Saturday? The winter of 2009-10 was really nice. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

52/41 here today with a paltry 0.19" of rain. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

*yawn* I need some Gorton the fisherman entertainment...

[MossMan]

*yawn* I need some Gorton the fisherman entertainment...

Yes!! Beyond boring right now.

[FroYoBro]

How is this for exciting?!?!?!?! 

 

I think my chest hair has been growing in thicker for the last few weeks. Snowy winter? 

[MossMan]

How is this for exciting?!?!?!?!

 

I think my chest hair has been growing in thicker for the last few weeks. Snowy winter?

It's a lock!

[snow_wizard]

Christianity hasn't been a discussion for a long time on here but i remembered you being a believer in Christ. Do you believe in Old Earth or New Earth?

 

You can be a Christian and also believe in an old Earth.  I've seen too many things just in the geology around Liberty alone to not believe the Earth is very old.

[snow_wizard]

Let's not start a religious conversation in here...

 

I hardly think mentioning it one time in passing is any big deal.  Political correctness is totally out of control these days.

[snow_wizard]

Yes!! Beyond boring right now.

 

Not totally.  We just went through one of the most active periods ever recorded in the first half of October.  Legitimate high winds in many places, ridiculous amounts of rain, a couple of tornados, and a lot of lightning in some parts of Western WA last Friday.

[snow_wizard]

At least at the present time the CFS is jumping all over a really cold February for us.  It's showing a progression very much like 1989.  January is showing up as being chilly with a few runs being really cold.

[OKwx2k4]

Where in Oklahoma are you from? I saw it was what about 90 on Saturday? The winter of 2009-10 was really nice.

I live in Adair county. Right on the state line. About 110 east of Tulsa.

 

2009-10 and 10-11 were pretty epic down here. I enjoy lurking and reading the conversation in your region here.

 

Yeah, it's been a hot stretch here. Close to 1963 down here. Hoping for a big flip soon.

[snow_wizard]

You don't have a cellphone?

 

Of course I do.

[Farmboy]

Let's not start a religious conversation in here...

 

Pretty incredible how sensitive people can be and how you have to walk on eggshells most of the time these days...

[crf450ish]

Pretty incredible how sensitive people can be and how you have to walk on eggshells most of the time these days...

I dont walk on eggshells. I just keep my opinions to myself. Sure shot way to avoid any drama.

[Farmboy]

I dont walk on eggshells. I just keep my opinions to myself. Sure shot way to avoid any drama.

Sounds a little Orwellian, whatever, just sayin'...

[luvssnow_spokane]

At least at the present time the CFS is jumping all over a really cold February for us.  It's showing a progression very much like 1989.  January is showing up as being chilly with a few runs being really cold.

I am curious... Since when has the CFS "ever" been a reliable model? You are looking at stuff in February???!!  lala-land (fantasy) ....  In the last 6 years I have never seen it even come close to accurately verifying anything within 4 weeks, let alone 2 or 3 months. So, just curious why you would put any stock in it?

[Trainwreck]

CFS is a joke. It's almost as bad as the old farmers you know what if not as bad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I live in Adair county. Right on the state line. About 110 east of Tulsa.

 

2009-10 and 10-11 were pretty epic down here. I enjoy lurking and reading the conversation in your region here.

 

Yeah, it's been a hot stretch here. Close to 1963 down here. Hoping for a big flip soon.

 

Nice. I was living in Bartlesville north of Tulsa during the winter of 2009-10. It was pretty incredible with the Christmas eve blizzard and then bookended by a major snow event in late March. Early January was very cold too. I remember a couple storms in February that went mainly south and east so your area probably did well. Bville hit -28 the following winter and they had some major storms, but I was back in Oregon then. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS is obviously the gold standard. 

[crf450ish]

Sounds a little Orwellian, whatever, just sayin'...

Be that as it may, I have found that openly giving my opinion has frequently led to negative consequences. The only reason I am discussing it here, with you, on this forum, is simply because this place has proven to me that the folks on here maintain a generally higher IQ than the norm. Quite intriguing, actually, to be able to merely read ideas and thoughts from intellectual individuals. Yeah, I have been surrounded by idiots most of my life, hence the reason why I moved out to middle of B.F.E. ......

[snow_wizard]

I am curious... Since when has the CFS "ever" been a reliable model? You are looking at stuff in February???!!  lala-land (fantasy) ....  In the last 6 years I have never seen it even come close to accurately verifying anything within 4 weeks, let alone 2 or 3 months. So, just curious why you would put any stock in it?

 

There are many ways to use the CFS.   They run it 4 times a day and then take a long running average of all the runs.  All I can say is I've never seen it spit out the kind of monthly numbers that it has been lately on some of the individual runs.  Many incredible runs for both Jan and Feb in recent weeks.  It shows Nov and Dec being mild which kind of seems like 1988.  In short it can be useful, but has to be used cautiously.  Obviously I'm not saying it will verify but I think extreme solutions are worth mentioning if they are coming up frequently.