October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[MossMan]

I remember our real estate agent back in 2003 describing November of 1985 to us like it just happened. It must have been memorable.

Even more memorable when you are just 9yrs old!! It was so great, so fun and lasted a long time! I remember one morning where the snow started early in the morning lightly but school was still on time so I waited at the bus stop as the snow started falling at a very heavy rate and we all ended up having snowball fights, etc while waiting for a bus that never came! Those were the days where info was slow to get out and you had to listen to the AM stations for school info, and we finally got word that school was cancelled and we spent the day sledding in heavy snow that fell the entire day! Also it was the earliest that I could ever remember the lake freezing solid! All so magical as a kid!!

[TT-SEA]

Even more memorable when you are just 9yrs old!! It was so great, so fun and lasted a long time! I remember one morning where the snow started early in the morning lightly but school was still on time so I waited at the bus stop as the snow started falling at a very heavy rate and we all ended up having snowball fights, etc while waiting for a bus that never came! Those were the days where info was slow to get out and you had to listen to the AM stations for school info, and we finally got word that school was cancelled and we spent the day sledding in heavy snow that fell the entire day! Also it was the earliest that I could ever remember the lake freezing solid! All so magical as a kid!!

 

Ahhhh yes... listening to AM radio for school closings or late starts.    You just took me back to sitting in the kitchen as a kid in the pre-dawn hours during a snowstorm.    Our school district started with a "B" and I remember many times tuning in when they were farther down the alphabet and having to wait until they came all the way around again.    

[MossMan]

Ahhhh yes... listening to AM radio for school closings or late starts. You just took me back to sitting in the kitchen as a kid in the pre-dawn hours during a snowstorm. Our school district started with a "B" and I remember many times tuning in when they were farther down the alphabet and having to wait until they came all the way around again.

My sister and I would sit at the dining room table early in the morning on those snowy days with the transistor radio just hoping and praying waiting for them to say those magical words! It was the best!

[snow_wizard]

Even more memorable when you are just 9yrs old!! It was so great, so fun and lasted a long time! I remember one morning where the snow started early in the morning lightly but school was still on time so I waited at the bus stop as the snow started falling at a very heavy rate and we all ended up having snowball fights, etc while waiting for a bus that never came! Those were the days where info was slow to get out and you had to listen to the AM stations for school info, and we finally got word that school was cancelled and we spent the day sledding in heavy snow that fell the entire day! Also it was the earliest that I could ever remember the lake freezing solid! All so magical as a kid!!

 

I was 21 and it was magical.  The best run of winter I can remember except maybe Jan  / Feb 1972.

[snow_wizard]

10 wettest non-Nino Octobers at SEA.

 

1950

1955

1956

1967

1975

1981

1985

1990

2003

2012

 

I'd take my chances with that group any day.  Going further back it's rather interesting to note 1924 is high on the list also.  Another winter with a mega blast.  Even 2012-13 featured the coldest Jan of this century so far.

[MossMan]

I was 21 and it was magical. The best run of winter I can remember except maybe Jan / Feb 1972.

I would love a repeat!! It would be just as magical even with me turning 40 next month!!!

[snow_wizard]

At SEA, Feb 1985 had one sub-freezing day. The coldest day was 32/19. Next coldest was 35/24.

 

In Jan 2007, SEA had three sub-freezing days. The coldest days were 29/21 and 31/19.

 

I was just giving my impression of both events.  To me they were both equally satisfying.  I went through both and clearly remember both.  Just my opinion.

[TT-SEA]

Split flow next week on the 00Z GFS...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102100/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_29.png

[Phil]

I'd take my chances with that group any day. Going further back it's rather interesting to note 1924 is high on the list also. Another winter with a mega blast. Even 2012-13 featured the coldest Jan of this century so far.

Probably best to avoid pre-1960 analogs, IMO.

[snow_wizard]

The recurring theme of the CFS is blocking this winter.  The location of the blocking jumps around, but most runs show us getting hit hard at least one of the three months Dec - Feb.  At this point strong blocking this winter is a well above average bet.  That is a good starting point at least.  I'm betting there will be a couple of periods this winter the atmosphere will become quite Ninaish again which would argue for some fun and games for us also.

[snow_wizard]

Probably best to avoid pre-1960 analogs, IMO.

 

I imagine so.  Just making the point extremely wet Octobers have a tendency to come in seasons that have top tier Arctic blasts.

[Phil]

The recurring theme of the CFS is blocking this winter. The location of the blocking jumps around, but most runs show us getting hit hard at least one of the three months Dec - Feb. At this point strong blocking this winter is a well above average bet. That is a good starting point at least. I'm betting there will be a couple of periods this winter the atmosphere will become quite Ninaish again which would argue for some fun and games for us also.

I agree 100%. This looks to be one of the most -AO Octobers on record. All -ENSO/+QBO Octobers that featured an AO below -0.3 were followed by coherent -AO winters, so this blocking is nice to see, IMO.

[TT-SEA]

I agree 100%. This looks to be one of the most -AO Octobers on record. All -ENSO/+QBO Octobers that featured an AO below -0.3 were followed by coherent -AO winters, so this blocking is nice to see, IMO.

 

 

I like this news!    I love blocky winters in general.   Even if we don't hit the jackpot.   

[Phil]

I like this news! I love blocky winters in general. Even if we don't hit the jackpot.

Same. I enjoy active, blocky patterns. I don't care if I end up on the mild side as long as someone in the country is getting hit.

[BLI snowman]

10 wettest non-Nino Octobers at SEA.

 

1950

1955

1956

1967

1975

1981

1985

1990

2003

2012

 

1947 wasn't a Nino.

 

That was the wettest October for our region. This year stands a good chance of catching it.

[stuffradio]

I got just under .9" of rain today. Thankfully the models are starting to become drier overall. I need to plant my Garlic before it's too late, and I need to get some drainage in in one spot as it was flooding already.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still holding out hope for a little cold snap somewhere in the 6 to 11 day period.  Models are showing some GOA ridging and a decent surface high over the NE Pacific, but the southern stream kind of wracks havoc.  The normal model trend the last several weeks has been to diminish the dominance of the southern brach of the jet as time frames narrow, so I like our chances of maybe seeing some frost to finish out the month.

[Phil]

Interesting graph by Anthony Masiello, depicting a correlation between the solar wind AP Index and the non-niño PDO,

 

Looks statistically significant to me on a modest lag, minus ENSO. Though the relationship appears to vary w/ time (as would be expected). Should this continue, one would expect a low frequency decline in the PDO to begin within the next ~ 4 years.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/625D9896-B4CB-48C8-AD22-C781AD884A86_zpsqscqj31h.jpg

[MossMan]

Split flow next week on the 00Z GFS...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016102100/gfs_z500_mslp_namer_29.png

Hate split flow, but if we must at least it's better to have it happen now and not in the heart of winter...those buggers can be so hard to get rid of!!

[snow_wizard]

Hate split flow, but if we must at least it's better to have it happen now and not in the heart of winter...those buggers can be so hard to get rid of!!

 

Not surprising to see after the ridiculous jet we've had the past couple of weeks.

[OKwx2k4]

Been out in Oklahoma the past few days. It was 85 yesterday and sunny and 70 today. Yesterday felt disgusting with the humidity, but today was amazing with a nice northerly breeze.

It definitely was a beautiful day here yesterday. (Today actually. Lol I haven't slept yet) Fixing to get into my favorite part of autumn in the next week or 2.

 

You brought up the incredible cold shot in 2011 the other day. I worked 6 solid hours outside at night during that. 'Only' hit -21 over here where I was. Lol. Got so cold working out there. My inside of my nose would freeze briefly if I forgot to breathe correctly and after that I had nosebleeds for 2 days because of it. Won't ever forget that night as long as I live.

[wx_statman]

Feb 85 was a really solid event.  We had decent snow cover for a week where I was living at the time.  That and Jan 2007 were pretty comparable weighing temperature and snowfall.  A number of locations didn't get much snow out of the Jan 2007 event.  I was lucky on that one.

 

Nothing in recent times tops November 1985.  That month was amazing.  Much prettier than Dec 2008 overall.  Dec 1983, Nov 1985, and Feb 1989 were epic cold waves.

 

Yeah it was. There's no reason to exclude it from any list of 1980's cold waves.

 

-28 at BNO

-12 at BOI

11 at SLE

15 at PDX

 

Pocatello, ID hit -33 which is their all-time record low. This is of course the same cold wave that brought state records of -69 to Peter Sinks, UT and -61 to Maybell, CO.

[Brennan]

I sure remember Nov. 1985 and Dec. 1990!

 

Speaking of memorable... 

 

Ok now I don’t know where this falls on the records list for BLI... But this has to be up there as one of the coldest snowfalls on record for them and it happened during the “Wet Snowmaggeddon of December 1996”.

 

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 9:55AM it was 14.0*F at BLI with HEAVY SNOW. Visibility 0.2 miles

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 2:58PM it was 12.2*F at BLI with SNOW. Visibility 0.2 miles

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 3:52PM it was 10.4*F at BLI with LIGHT SNOW. Visibility 5.5 miles. 

AFTERNOON HIGH OF 12.2*F???? WITH HEAVY SNOW??? ARE YOU KIDDING ME. 

 

I’m still feeling the pain of not being home during that event. 

 

1989-1996 was actually pretty top notch in Whatcom County. 

 

January/February/March 1989 had a sustained cold period with snow, a top tier arctic blast, and then a good snowstorm in early March. December/January 90-91 were amazing here. Nobody knows it anywhere else but it snowed like 20+ inches in Bellingham in early January 1991, and that was after the near 2 weeks of arctic blasts/snow the second half of December. Then there is December/January 92-93 with a 3 week period of generally below freezing temps and a fair amount of snow. January 1996 featured a 2 week blast with snow. November-December 1996 were top 3 on record for cold/snow combined. Week long blast in November 96, then 10 days of freezing temps and 4 feet of snow in December 96... Probably the best 6 to 8 year period since 1949-1957 or 1968-1973 here. It would seem we are due for another really good stretch. 2004-2009 was good here, but nothing in comparison to any of those runs. 

[Brennan]

I like this particular observation. 

 

Sunday, December 29th, 1996 @ 6:50AM... 14.0*F, SNOW, Visibility 0.2 miles. Sustained NE wind at 38 Gusting to 48mph. 

 

Still waiting to see conditions like that again... It will be 20 years this December. I wait. and I wait. and I wait. 

My guess is that out by Lake Whatcom it was probably about 17*F, Heavy Snow, Sustained wind ZERO MPH. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Jim mentioned the CFS. The run I looked at this morning has a great December. A wet and overall mild November, though after about the 15th there are solid shots of mountain snow. It is splitty through about the first week of November then the jet consolidates and things get very soggy. 

[Tundra]

After a period of split flow pattern the rest of the month, the newest edition of the 12z GFS wants to develop a ridge over the PNW the first week of November. The weather looks to be boring the next few weeks.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016102112/360/500h_anom.na.png

[stuffradio]

I could be bone dry the rest of the month and it wouldn't matter, I'm already above normal for the month in rain. Average is just over 8", and I have more than that.

[Geos]

Been a soggy month. Coming in with 6.79" of rain so far. Not too bad today. Got some filtered sun right now; 52°.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Recorded 8.85 rain so far

[PacNW44]

Speaking of memorable... 

 

Ok now I don’t know where this falls on the records list for BLI... But this has to be up there as one of the coldest snowfalls on record for them and it happened during the “Wet Snowmaggeddon of December 1996”.

 

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 9:55AM it was 14.0*F at BLI with HEAVY SNOW. Visibility 0.2 miles

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 2:58PM it was 12.2*F at BLI with SNOW. Visibility 0.2 miles

Saturday, December 28th, 1996 @ 3:52PM it was 10.4*F at BLI with LIGHT SNOW. Visibility 5.5 miles. 

AFTERNOON HIGH OF 12.2*F???? WITH HEAVY SNOW??? ARE YOU KIDDING ME. 

 

I’m still feeling the pain of not being home during that event. 

 

1989-1996 was actually pretty top notch in Whatcom County. 

 

January/February/March 1989 had a sustained cold period with snow, a top tier arctic blast, and then a good snowstorm in early March. December/January 90-91 were amazing here. Nobody knows it anywhere else but it snowed like 20+ inches in Bellingham in early January 1991, and that was after the near 2 weeks of arctic blasts/snow the second half of December. Then there is December/January 92-93 with a 3 week period of generally below freezing temps and a fair amount of snow. January 1996 featured a 2 week blast with snow. November-December 1996 were top 3 on record for cold/snow combined. Week long blast in November 96, then 10 days of freezing temps and 4 feet of snow in December 96... Probably the best 6 to 8 year period since 1949-1957 or 1968-1973 here. It would seem we are due for another really good stretch. 2004-2009 was good here, but nothing in comparison to any of those runs. 

 

I attended WWU in the early 90's, wish I had taken some snow pics back then.  Early 93 was epic with a big snowfall the night before winter term started, northerly winds 50 mph+ and we were walking across Lake Padden later in the month.  There was snow on the ground all month.

[Brennan]

I attended WWU in the early 90's, wish I had taken some snow pics back then.  Early 93 was epic with a big snowfall the night before winter term started, northerly winds 50 mph+ and we were walking across Lake Padden later in the month.  There was snow on the ground all month.

 

Tell more stories!

[Farmboy]

It's been sad (and pathetic) watching the cooler air shown on previous model runs continue to get watered down on following runs...  Lets hope things don't go like this in December...  

[Geos]

Some rain this weekend, but not as much as we've been getting.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

KRTX is back up and running! 

 

It's a good thing nothing overly exciting happened during the outage.

[Phil]

After a period of split flow pattern the rest of the month, the newest edition of the 12z GFS wants to develop a ridge over the PNW the first week of November. The weather looks to be boring the next few weeks.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016102112/360/500h_anom.na.png

Boy does that look familiar..+PNA/+NAO/Hudson Bay death vortex has been incredibly persistent since 2014.

[Phil]

Wow..

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

[Phil]

Graph by Sam Lillo, for climatological reference. Lowest values obtained in October are the darkest blue, stronger PV years in lighter green.

 

Looks like 2003/04 and 2006/07 are the closest stratospheric matches within the satellite era. Also, years 1980/81, 1984/85, 1992/93, 2005/06, and 2013/14 has somewhat lower values, but only 1980/81, 1992/93, 2006/07, and 2013/14 were +QBO, and only 1980/81 and 2013/14 were -ENSO/+QBO, and only 2013/14 was a decent(ish) solar match.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62648E9E-6EED-4CE6-8174-8A39319E0864_zps0bxxzzck.jpg

[Geos]

Up to 57. Line of moderate to heavy rain moving into the Puget Sound region.

 

[crf450ish]

Geez, I miss a few days and the discussion has gone from wind storm mania to the paradox of nothing.

And so it continues....

[MossMan]

Exciting night on the forum!! Highlights of today's weather, mostly sunny and pleasant early afternoon, 3 minutes of heavy rain around 4ish.