October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

Give 2006-14 a little credit. That was eight whole years.

 

Helluva lot better than the last couple!

[bainbridgekid]

47 degrees at 2:30 in the afternoon here.

[TT-SEA]

47 degrees at 2:30 in the afternoon here.

 

 

Wow... 57 and partly sunny with an east wind.   Had just a few sprinkles about an hour ago.

 

Just touched 60 down in Snoqualmie.

[Jesse]

47 degrees at 2:30 in the afternoon here.

Only 50 here. Definitely the coolest afternoon of the season so far.

[Deweydog]

47 degrees at 2:30 in the afternoon here.

Good thing it's happening now and not 48 hours from now.

[TT-SEA]

Considering us lucky here then... we have had filtered sun for most of the day.   Even when it was sprinkling for 30 minutes you could still see the sun through the clouds.  

 

Just a little offshore flow can make a world of difference here.

[James Jones]

12Z ECMWF has backed off as well with the rain for this week.   Shows a little rain on Tuesday and nothing much at all from Wednesday - Friday.  

 

Should be warm those days with southerly flow as well.  

What are the ECMWF surface maps showing for the upcoming warm period in the Portland area?

[ShawniganLake]

Considering us lucky here then... we have had filtered sun for most of the day. Even when it was sprinkling for 30 minutes you could still see the sun through the clouds.

 

Just a little offshore flow can make a world of difference here.

Been nice up here. Partly sunny and 52F after a low of 42F. Too bad I spent the last 3 hours replacing our old washer and dryer.

[TT-SEA]

What are the ECMWF surface maps showing for the upcoming warm period in the Portland area?

Mid 60s for both SEA and PDX.

[MossMan]

Wow... 57 and partly sunny with an east wind. Had just a few sprinkles about an hour ago.

 

Just touched 60 down in Snoqualmie.

51 and sprinkles here.

[TT-SEA]

51 and sprinkles here.

 

 

Clouds lowering here now... still got the lawn mowed and a bike ride with my daughter in today.   Thankful for the dry hours and pleasant temp during the day.  

[wx_statman]

I know you joke, but that actually used to be a somewhat common progression around here.

 

We also used to see N/NW Arctic blasts more frequently here in Portland. Major CAA on N/NW winds used to be somewhat common around here (relatively speaking, of course) but its an aspect of our climate that has almost completely disappeared in recent decades. November 2010 is the only recent example. 

[crf450ish]

Where is richard_mann at these days? Have been looking forward to his near nats a** spot on cold air movement projections and forecasts. 

[crf450ish]

We also used to see N/NW Arctic blasts more frequently here in Portland. Major CAA on N/NW winds used to be somewhat common around here (relatively speaking, of course) but its an aspect of our climate that has almost completely disappeared in recent decades. November 2010 is the only recent example. 

I sure would like to go back to the 50's 60's & 70's PNW winter weather regime. I have seen pictures, heard stories, seen vehicles that lived thru it etc. etc. etc.  from friends and family. 3 feet of snow in the front yard of the house my father in law grew up in in on 80th street and waller road in Tacoma....happened in the 70's. They say rapid climate shift happens in a humans lifetime. SO maybe the humans that remembered the good ol' days are nearing their time, and us younglings are witnessing it shifting back to what they remember? Kind of Philosophic, no?

[wx_statman]

I sure would like to go back to the 50's 60's & 70's PNW winter weather regime. I have seen pictures, heard stories, seen vehicles that lived thru it etc. etc. etc.  from friends and family. 3 feet of snow in the front yard of the house my father in law grew up in in on 80th street and waller road in Tacoma....happened in the 70's. They say rapid climate shift happens in a humans lifetime. SO maybe the humans that remembered the good ol' days are nearing their time, and us younglings are witnessing it shifting back to what they remember? Kind of Philosophic, no?

 

I don't think we'll be shifting back to a 1950's or 1960's-type climate anytime soon...

[snow_wizard]

SEA managed to eek out a -1 departure today.  Ironically it happened with warmer 850s than we have had for a good part of the month.  goes to show the little details make the big difference in a lot of cases.

 

I'll be interested to see if it actually ends up a -1 with the NWS math system.  All I know is a -3 max and a +1 min = -1 on the average.

[snow_wizard]

I don't think we'll be shifting back to a 1950's or 1960's-type climate anytime soon...

 

I could maybe see the 60s, but the 50s are a lot less likely.

[snow_wizard]

I sure would like to go back to the 50's 60's & 70's PNW winter weather regime. I have seen pictures, heard stories, seen vehicles that lived thru it etc. etc. etc.  from friends and family. 3 feet of snow in the front yard of the house my father in law grew up in in on 80th street and waller road in Tacoma....happened in the 70's. They say rapid climate shift happens in a humans lifetime. SO maybe the humans that remembered the good ol' days are nearing their time, and us younglings are witnessing it shifting back to what they remember? Kind of Philosophic, no?

 

All I can say was Jan 1972 was incredible.  Something like 16 inches of snow at my place followed by a long period of dry/cold weather.  I faintly remember Jan 1969, but not as clearly as 1972, because I was too young in 69.

 

The 3 feet you refer to was probably 69.

[Timmy Supercell]

T'storm outbreak in NE Oregon apparently....

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/zwjh1f.jpg

[Chewbacca Defense]

And will be for awhile...

 

0503 UTC ON 30 OCTOBER (10:03 PM PDT 29 OCTOBER). DUE TO MAJOR MECHANICAL ISSU

E...PORTLAND OREGON WSR RADAR (KRTX) WILL BE DOWN. NO ESTIMATE ON WHEN WILL RET

URN TO SERVICE...BUT LIKELY WILL BE SEVERAL DAYS.

 

 

Probably ran out of green and yellow ink for the radar display. 

[Phil]

I don't think we'll be shifting back to a 1950's or 1960's-type climate anytime soon...

To play devil's advocate, over here we've indeed flipped into a 1960s winter regime in recent years. All time record lows set in March w/ numerous daily record lows in J/F/M/A, all-time snow records broken repeatedly, and now three consecutive snowier than average winters for the first time in 30+ years. If we finish with above normal snowfall this winter, it'll be the first time we've accomplished that feat since the 1960s.

 

So, if it can happen here, why can't it happen out there?

[snow_wizard]

One of my favorite posters on another site posted this really terrifically detailed forecast for the upcoming winter: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49132-my-2016-17-winter-forecast/

 

It's pretty long but if you have the time, it's worth a read.

 

Very impressive write up.  Doesn't look too bad for us.

[Phil]

Holy fooking smokes, greatest SOI drop from September to October in recorded history, all the way back to 1876!

 

ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html

[Deweydog]

Holy fooking smokes, greatest SOI drop from September to October in recorded history, all the way back to 1876!

 

ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html

Wacky! This nino is DEFINITELY not going to act like your typical nino!!!

[Phil]

Wacky! This nino is DEFINITELY not going to act like your typical nino!!!

I agree with Jim on the "craziness" aspect(s) here. I don't think the system has any idea what it's doing right now.

[Timmy Supercell]

Super El Nino 2 winters in a row?? I guess Crater Lake is going to have another 200 inches in Dec. 

[Phil]

FWIW, here's the latest NPAC subsurface analysis @ 45N.

 

This reveals the shallow nature of "the blob" over the central NPAC. However, the warm subsurface waters are quite deep near/along west coast, and the cold pool still exists in the central NPAC subsurface, as a result of the low frequency deep ocean circulations driven by the persistent +PNA circulation over the last several years.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/517EEEC0-FCAC-4F86-AA92-FA6A9656A245_zpsehw5ld70.png

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, here's the latest NPAC subsurface analysis @ 45N.

 

This reveals the shallow nature of "the blob" over the central NPAC. However, the warm subsurface waters are quite deep near/along west coast, and the cold pool still exists in the central NPAC subsurface, as a result of the low frequency deep ocean circulations driven by the persistent +PNA circulation over the last several years.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/517EEEC0-FCAC-4F86-AA92-FA6A9656A245_zpsehw5ld70.png

 

 

+PDO

[IbrChris]

One of my favorite posters on another site posted this really terrifically detailed forecast for the upcoming winter: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49132-my-2016-17-winter-forecast/

 

It's pretty long but if you have the time, it's worth a read.

Enjoyed that write-up. Some of the analogs seem decent for the PNW like 1954-55, 1983-84 and 2013-14. I tend to agree that the N-central US stands the best chance of below normals when averaged over DJF and the interior W/DSW and potentially the deep SE have the best shot of above normal. It's important not to read too much into an analog/teleconnection monthly/seasonal forecast...quick-hitting arctic events can affect pretty much anywhere in between warm episodes. We will be looking for the usual AK ridge amplification and digging shortwaves through W Canada to deliver any goods to the PNW like usual.

[Phil]

+PDO

FWIW, these are anomalies, not actual temperatures. That subsurface profile can reverse fairly quickly I suspect, though obviously the ongoing pattern isn't going to help if you're rooting for a -PDO.

 

Oh, and the all-mighty blob is just 70-80ft deep.

[Deweydog]

FWIW, these are anomalies, not actual temperatures. That subsurface profile can reverse fairly quickly I suspect, though obviously the ongoing pattern isn't going to help if you're rooting for a -PDO.

 

Oh, and the all-mighty blob is just 70-80ft deep.

70-80 feet is plenty to capture the imagination of weather geeks from coast to coast!

[Bryant]

SEA managed to eek out a -1 departure today. Ironically it happened with warmer 850s than we have had for a good part of the month. goes to show the little details make the big difference in a lot of cases.

 

I'll be interested to see if it actually ends up a -1 with the NWS math system. All I know is a -3 max and a +1 min = -1 on the average.

I wondered why there wasn't hour by hour updates on here today

[westcoastexpat]

Enjoyed that write-up. Some of the analogs seem decent for the PNW like 1954-55, 1983-84 and 2013-14. I tend to agree that the N-central US stands the best chance of below normals when averaged over DJF and the interior W/DSW and potentially the deep SE have the best shot of above normal. It's important not to read too much into an analog/teleconnection monthly/seasonal forecast...quick-hitting arctic events can affect pretty much anywhere in between warm episodes. We will be looking for the usual AK ridge amplification and digging shortwaves through W Canada to deliver any goods to the PNW like usual.

 

Agreed! I do think that the trough position may be a bit further west than depicted in the outlook:

 

 

I'd say that the PNW will probably be more near normal in January, but there do seem to be a lot of forecasts expecting a blocky, GoA ridge & Greenland block this winter. All depends on where everything positions (if at all). But I do have my doubts of another 2013-2014 repeat.

[MossMan]

It's raining!!!

[IbrChris]

Agreed! I do think that the trough position may be a bit further west than depicted in the outlook:

 

Screen Shot 2016-10-30 at 11.16.25 PM.png

 

I'd say that the PNW will probably be more near normal in January, but there do seem to be a lot of forecasts expecting a blocky, GoA ridge & Greenland block this winter. All depends on where everything positions (if at all). But I do have my doubts of another 2013-2014 repeat.

Yes I could see that occurring...seems like east coast folks see an AK ridge as a green-light for the arctic train to pummel the eastern US but it depends a lot as well on high-latitude blocking and hemispheric wavenumber. A SE ridge, even fairly flat, is often the main indicator that a period of AK ridging may deliver the goods mainly across the interior west and central US versus the eastern third...there are quite a few instances where such a configuration has resulted in arctic blasts becoming entrenched over the Plains and Great Lakes while having less impacts along the I-95.

[TT-SEA]

It's raining!!!

 

 

I was thinking of taking the day off tomorrow just to watch the rain.    Radar watching tonight!    Looks like another 1-2 hours of steady rain but hoping it can hang on longer.  

[westcoastexpat]

Yes I could see that occurring...seems like east coast folks see an AK ridge as a green-light for the arctic train to pummel the eastern US but it depends a lot as well on high-latitude blocking and hemispheric wavenumber. A SE ridge, even fairly flat, is often the main indicator that a period of AK ridging may deliver the goods mainly across the interior west and central US versus the eastern third...there are quite a few instances where such a configuration has resulted in arctic blasts becoming entrenched over the Plains and Great Lakes while having less impacts along the I-95.

 

I also think that 2013-2014 was a winter where there were no major signals except for the very warm N. Pacific waters (i.e. "the blob"), and the result was a persistently ridgy west coast winter and east coast deep freeze, so I think a lot of outlooks are looking at this winter and seeing a weak ENSO signal and warm N. Pacific and, given 2013-2014 was pretty recent, it's fresh in their minds. I think it's a mistake and would not be surprised to the SE ridge continue its persistence.

 

And I try to take winter forecasts with a grain of salt because you can have an overall above normal winter with drier precip and still end up with some memorable snowstorms.

[snow_wizard]

Super El Nino 2 winters in a row?? I guess Crater Lake is going to have another 200 inches in Dec. 

 

Not sure what you mean here...it's a La Nina now.

[IbrChris]

I also think that 2013-2014 was a winter where there were no major signals except for the very warm N. Pacific waters (i.e. "the blob"), and the result was a persistently ridgy west coast winter and east coast deep freeze, so I think a lot of outlooks are looking at this winter and seeing a weak ENSO signal and warm N. Pacific and, given 2013-2014 was pretty recent, it's fresh in their minds. I think it's a mistake and would not be surprised to the SE ridge continue its persistence.

 

And I try to take winter forecasts with a grain of salt because you can have an overall above normal winter with drier precip and still end up with some memorable snowstorms.

Lol yep...and show me who predicted Dec 2013 arctic blast more than about 10-12 days prior. -10 at EUG.

 

I developed a non-rigorous "arctic blast" teleconnection index using 500 mb height vs climatology at Anchorage and Salem which did indicate a higher likelihood of an arctic event in the PNW roughly 12 days before the actual event. I mentioned it in last month's thread when I dug around on Facebook and found the original posts, I'll try and dig it up and post the link.

[snow_wizard]

I also think that 2013-2014 was a winter where there were no major signals except for the very warm N. Pacific waters (i.e. "the blob"), and the result was a persistently ridgy west coast winter and east coast deep freeze, so I think a lot of outlooks are looking at this winter and seeing a weak ENSO signal and warm N. Pacific and, given 2013-2014 was pretty recent, it's fresh in their minds. I think it's a mistake and would not be surprised to the SE ridge continue its persistence.

 

And I try to take winter forecasts with a grain of salt because you can have an overall above normal winter with drier precip and still end up with some memorable snowstorms.

 

Let's not forget 2013-14 had a couple of really impressive cold waves in the NW also.