November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

MNel does not consider 08-09' a Nina, though I know that has been debated on here.

No doubt it was a Nina. The atmosphere was raging La Nina in fact. Ed Berry stated on his blog that winter was unquestionably a Nina. 2013-14 nearly was also. Portland did very well both of those winters.

[wx_statman]

That's literally all you do with me.

 

Show me a 30 year period where Nov/Dec outperformed 1985-2015. Or 40 years compared to Nov/Dec 1975-2015.

 

No reason to deny the trend. January has gone to s**t, Feb/Mar have been mediocre, and Nov/Dec have been above normal.

 

Agreed. And its because I feel that, too often, you make definitive statements without doing adequate research. 

 

Instead of me showing you anything, I invite you to do the research yourself. All of the information is publicly available, for free. I can PM you a list of useful links if you would like. 

[BLI snowman]

But are you really saying anything?

 

If we're to look at individual, successive 30 year periods counting backward from 2015, then 1895-1925 and 1955-85 are pretty similar to 1985-2015 with regard to November performance. That's 90 out of 165 years (55% of all years) since 1850.

 

It's obviously more a manner of cherry-picking in this instance. You can selectively look at any other 30 year combination just to compare, and I think it would be safe to say that the 1985-2015 period does more than hold its own for the most part. Not saying it's worth much, given the confirmation bias involved in the sample size determination.

 

It is interesting to note the dearth of impressive November arctic events in our area's climate record prior to 1896. You have the sizable arctic events in 1859 and then modified (but snowy) events in 1871, 1872, and 1875. But nothing too earth-shattering at all.

[wx_statman]

But for some reason you were only looking at Portland when discussing March earlier?

 

There was a reason. Its because I was looking at Portland. 

[snow_wizard]

Well, well, well...the October PNA using the old formula came in at -0.18. I like the old formula and not only because of that BTW.

[wx_statman]

It's obviously more a manner of cherry-picking in this instance. You can selectively look at any other 30 year combination just to compare, and I think it would be safe to say that the 1985-2015 period does more than hold its own for the most part. Not saying it's worth much, given the confirmation bias involved in the sample size determination.

 

It is interesting to note the dearth of impressive November arctic events in our area's climate record prior to 1896. You have the sizable arctic events in 1859 and then modified (but snowy) events in 1871, 1872, and 1875. But nothing too earth-shattering at all.

 

I've noticed that too. I actually purchased the Fort Vancouver dataset from the MRCC not too long ago. Surprising lack of November cold waves in that era. Our thermal profile during NDJFM looked more like the East Coast does today. 

[snow_wizard]

It is interesting to note the dearth of impressive November arctic events in our area's climate record prior to 1896. You have the sizable arctic events in 1859 and then modified (but snowy) events in 1871, 1872, and 1875. But nothing too earth-shattering at all.

That is indeed true. Something I meant to bring up on here. No doubt the huge Decembers, Januaries, and Februaries more than made up for it.

[Phil]

Well, well, well...the October PNA using the old formula came in at -0.18. I like the old formula and not only because of that BTW.

Please stop denying what was clearly a +PNA in synchronicity with a stout +AAM integral. It's irritating.

 

There's a reason we changed the calculations. The new formula is more domainal my consistent w/ regards to the NPAC itself, with less emphasis on peripherals.

[snow_wizard]

I've noticed that too. I actually purchased the Fort Vancouver dataset from the MRCC not too long ago. Surprising lack of November cold waves in that era. Our thermal profile during NDJFM looked more like the East Coast does today.

I guess the million dollar question is could we trend back to that type of profile. This is another reason I've been saying we don't really want to be wishing for winter in November. Even the huge winters in the 20th century with the exception of 1955-56 had mild to balmy Novembers.

[snow_wizard]

Please stop denying what was clearly a +PNA in synchronicity with a stout +AAM integral. It's irritating.

 

There's a reason we changed the calculations. The new formula is more domainal my consistent w/ regards to the NPAC itself, with less emphasis on peripherals.

I've felt all along there were some aspects of October that weren't typical of positive PNA (such as below normal 850mb temps over the NW). It was a bastardized positive PNA at best. You also have the fact there were some areas of the GOA that had above normal heights in October...

 

I hope we can respectfully disagree on this.

[Phil]

Interesting convective state upcoming. Not a classic Niña look.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DEB176E9-F331-46F0-ADBE-FBD811E6921C_zpseytaa24b.png

[Phil]

I've felt all along there were some aspects of October that weren't typical of positive PNA (such as below normal 850mb temps over the NW). It was a bastardized positive PNA at best. You also have the fact there were some areas of the GOA that had above normal heights in October...

 

I hope we can respectfully disagree on this.

I respect your opinion and digress. It's straightforward in my opinion, but that doesn't mean I'm right.

[crf450ish]

Hmmmm..........

http://i.imgur.com/poVcPgR.png

 

Elaborate please.

[BLI snowman]

[Deweydog]

Interesting convective state upcoming. Not a classic Niña look.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DEB176E9-F331-46F0-ADBE-FBD811E6921C_zpseytaa24b.png

Only ninos acting out of character are allowed on this block.

[Phil]

00z GFS is about to develop a healthy EPO block I think. No coincidence we lose the GOA vortex right as we lose the stagnant Maritime forcing, IMO.

[Front Ranger]

Agreed. And its because I feel that, too often, you make definitive statements without doing adequate research.

 

Instead of me showing you anything, I invite you to do the research yourself. All of the information is publicly available, for free. I can PM you a list of useful links if you would like.

I have shown many times that I've done a lot of research. I don't need to prove anything to you.

 

It wouldn't matter...you make up your mind and that's that. You refuse to respond to my questions and points, don't expect me to do anything for you.

[Phil]

00z GFS follows the 2010/11 progression beautifully.

 

La la lock it up.

[wx_statman]

Definitely true. Probably as snowy here as modern day Philadelphia, too.

 

And I could have sent you that data for free

 

Yeah, I remember you got the data for free!

 

I paid $25 for 21 stations in OR-WA-ID-MT. That's not much, and it supports the MRCC's efforts. They actually cancelled the Forts project in 2012 because of a lack of funding. But they can still show my receipt (among hopefully others) to show that there's interest in their products, if the question of funding comes up again. That's the least I can do!

[Front Ranger]

There was a reason. Its because I was looking at Portland.

Yes, subjective. Ironic because you called my evaluations of early season events subjective.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have to say. I'm with Snow Wiz on the October PNA, there is no way that was a +PNA month.

[Deweydog]

00z might be too much too soon!!!

 

It needs to start thinking about baseball or dead puppies or something.

[wx_statman]

I have shown many times that I've done a lot of research. I don't need to prove anything to you.

 

It wouldn't matter...you make up your mind and that's that.

 

Sure, Jared.

[Phil]

I have to say. I'm with Snow Wiz on the October PNA, there is no way that was a +PNA month.

It was absolutely a +PNA month. Classic waveguide, and the integration of AAM across the NH was in perfect synchronicity with the expected loading pattern.

 

Please let it go.

[wx_statman]

Yes, subjective. Ironic because you called my evaluations of early season events subjective.

 

Literally every "analysis" we do here is subjective. Nothing we say here is vetted through rigorous parameters (quantitative and spatial), or peer review. 

 

Its all talk. 

[Front Ranger]

Sure, Jared.

You've demonstrated it repeatedly. You refuse to answer my questions and respond to my points. There's no point in trying to engage someone incapable of true discussion.

[Front Ranger]

I have to say. I'm with Snow Wiz on the October PNA, there is no way that was a +PNA month.

Pretty neutralish overall. Definitely not a classic +PNA month.

[wx_statman]

You've demonstrated it repeatedly. You refuse to answer my questions and respond to my points. There's no point in trying to engage someone incapable of true discussion.

 

Words.

[Phil]

Where's Rob?? He's usually all over GFS runs like this.

[Front Ranger]

Literally every "analysis" we do here is subjective. Nothing we say here is vetted through rigorous parameters (quantitative and spatial), or peer review.

 

Its all talk.

Then it's pretty silly for anyone on here to throw out the "subjective" or "cherry picking" statements, I guess?

[Front Ranger]

Words.

They're pretty common around here. More than snow, for sure.

[ShawniganLake]

Where's Rob?? He's usually all over GFS runs like this.

It was okay but it wasn't that great.

[Bryant]

From a tropical forcing standpoint, without putting much thought into it, I'd say things begin to line up near the end of the month/beginning of December

[Gradient Keeper]

Now we're talking!

 

Ooooo 00z 500mb Composite analog Day 8-14. MUCH improved and shows real potential.

November 1985 analog popped up!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

[Phil]

It was okay but it wasn't that great.

The overall setup is great, in my opinion. Just need to build up some cold air on our side of the pole.

[Bryant]

http://i.imgur.com/XfWdJSs.jpg

 

The above image depicts temperatures in the troposphere and stratosphere over the equitorial region (10S-10N). As mentioned previously, the strat warm event in the NH and SH have worked together to cool the equitoral upper levels, which creates a more convective/supportive regime for the MJO to thrive in. Notice in the image the warmer temps which up until now, have dominated the upper trop/lower strat, hence no coherent MJO. With cooling underway and more to follow, my assumption would be we shift out of background forcing dominance and shift to a propagatory/variable pattern. To take this assumption further, the current cooler than normal SST's over the ENSO regions aren't supportive of a healthy MJO wave, which will most likely result in a much quicker traveling wave. The IO/MC region are warmer, and would indicate a possible slower/more coherent MJO, which is good for us as this location and downstream implications target the West Coast for troughing. Will this work out in the end? Who knows

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF in 3 minutes....

[ShawniganLake]

Not surprised but the 0z was a pretty big outlier.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not surprised but the 0z was a pretty big outlier.

Yeah, for now ....

[MossMan]

Now we're talking!

 

Ooooo 00z 500mb Composite analog Day 8-14. MUCH improved and shows real potential.

November 1985 analog popped up!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

I like that image!