snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Well you might as well go through February while your at it. '89? For Feb I'd probably go with 1893 or 1916...at least up here. A most epic winter would be Nov 1985 Dec 1884 Jan 1862 (even better would be a combo of Jan 1862 and Jan 1950) Feb 1893 (colder than 1916) March 1951 That would be a solid winter for pretty much anywhere in the country. If I was limited to 1950 and later I would go with. Nov 1985 Dec 1968 Jan 1950 Feb 1989 March 1951 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 For Feb I'd probably go with 1893 or 1916...at least up here. A most epic winter would be Nov 1985Dec 1884Jan 1862 (even better would be a combo of Jan 1862 and Jan 1950)Feb 1893 (colder than 1916)March 1951 That would be a solid winter for pretty much anywhere in the country. If I was limited to 1950 and later I would go with. Nov 1985Dec 1968Jan 1950Feb 1989March 1951January 1862 was better than 1916? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 For Feb I'd probably go with 1893 or 1916...at least up here. A most epic winter would be Nov 1985Dec 1884Jan 1862 (even better would be a combo of Jan 1862 and Jan 1950)Feb 1893 (colder than 1916)March 1951 That would be a solid winter for pretty much anywhere in the country. If I was limited to 1950 and later I would go with. Nov 1985Dec 1968Jan 1950Feb 1989March 1951In Feb 1989, I dug a snow cave on a local hill here just south of Eugene (Spencer Butte). I'd estimate the snow depth was about 3' with 6' foot drifts. Fond memories. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 January 1862 was better than 1916?Definitely was colder. 1916 had extreme snowfall but that was focused in early February. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Today's high of 51 at PDX was the coolest since March 15th. Over eight months. Seems like the coolest weather of the year is probably focused in the November - March period? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 In Feb 1989, I dug a snow cave on a local hill here just south of Eugene (Spencer Butte). I'd estimate the snow depth was about 3' with 6' foot drifts. Fond memories. We got snow here, but not that much. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 29 degrees at my house at the moment. Just ran out to my shop to grab something and man its friggin cold. Haven't felt temps this chilly in months on end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Is this possibly lowland snow next Friday in a deformation band on the north side of the low?? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Is this possibly lowland snow next Friday in a deformation band on the north side of the low?? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.pngHappy Black Friday! Or should I say White Friday! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 We got snow here, but not that much.I lived at 1000' elevation and got about 16". The snow cave was at 2000'. It was quite a hike in the deep snow. I'd probably have a heart attack if I tried that now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Welp...according to Cliff Mass and his latest blog we are doomed...the next several weeks...doomed. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Welp...according to Cliff Mass and his latest blog we are doomed...the next several weeks...doomed. That's probably good news in reality. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 00z GFS Kind of ugly after day 8-10.... Aleutian/GOA vortex might be reforming. Only one run though.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Is this possibly lowland snow next Friday in a deformation band on the north side of the low?? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016111700/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_37.pngI'm a genius! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 00z GFS Kind of ugly after day 8-10.... Aleutian/GOA vortex might be reforming. Only one run though....A swing back around to a +pna? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 00z GFS Kind of ugly after day 8-10.... Aleutian/GOA vortex might be reforming. Only one run though....Seems like things might head that direction. Then we get to wait and hopefully everything retrogrades come early-mid December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Gonna be a long ugly winter fellas. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 A swing back around to a +pna?Maybe. Hopefully only briefly. PNA fairly neutral, AO, NAO sure forecast to tank nowhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://i.imgur.com/nm8maGg.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Gonna be a long ugly winter fellas. Dusting off the fork as we speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 For Feb I'd probably go with 1893 or 1916...at least up here. A most epic winter would be Nov 1985Dec 1884Jan 1862 (even better would be a combo of Jan 1862 and Jan 1950)Feb 1893 (colder than 1916)March 1951 That would be a solid winter for pretty much anywhere in the country. If I was limited to 1950 and later I would go with. Nov 1985Dec 1968Jan 1950Feb 1989March 1951. It would be interesting to see a similar list for warmth and see how the last few years looked against it. Looking at your list above at first glance seems absurd to think something like that would ever happen but what we are going through now is somewhat similar but in the opposite direction so to speak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Seems like the coolest weather of the year is probably focused in the November - March period? It's pretty unusual to go that long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 That's probably good news in reality. That just means December will be even more amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Gonna be a long ugly winter fellas. Oh brother. One not as good run and it's over? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Oh brother. One not as good run and it's over? CFS must not be looking good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Oh brother. One not as good run and it's over? Definitely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Welp...according to Cliff Mass and his latest blog we are doomed...the next several weeks...doomed. But the blob is gone! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 CFS must not be looking goodLet me check later. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 CFS must not be looking good That must be it. It will probably be two or three runs before another great one. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 . It would be interesting to see a similar list for warmth and see how the last few years looked against it. Looking at your list above at first glance seems absurd to think something like that would ever happen but what we are going through now is somewhat similar but in the opposite direction so to speak. There was a really putrid period in the late 30s / early 40s also. We all know what came after that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 I'm not so sure.Have we abandoned the 10-11 analog? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 At least 00z ECMWF was cooler with a TON of mountain snow. Best EURO run yet. 00z GFS wasn't exactly warm with plenty of mountain snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 So you saying we have to wait till the 2020s No. We had 1942-43 right after the horrible run and that was a good winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 At least 00z ECMWF was cooler with a TON of mountain snow. Best EURO run yet. 00z GFS wasn't exactly warm with plenty of mountain snow. Also kind of interesting the 0z GFS ensemble was better than previous runs. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 17, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Also kind of interesting the 0z GFS ensemble was better than previous runs.Some improvement yeah. Onto 6z! Begins in 2 hours 17 minutes !!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Have we abandoned the 10-11 analog?Not looking as pretty, especially with the +PNA likely returning to start December (though the NPAC low is likely to be located farther west, towards the Aleutians instead of the eastern GOA). There are some 1959/60 vibes to the upcoming pattern. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 At least 00z ECMWF was cooler with a TON of mountain snow. Best EURO run yet. 00z GFS wasn't exactly warm with plenty of mountain snow.The way Cliff Mass was blogging you would think this was going to be a terrible winter. Seems a bit premature 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 Yuck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 However, watch early/mid December for a potential EPO tank following the next +WPO burst. Might benefit the Midwest/East more than the west, though, so it's not a given. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 17, 2016 Report Share Posted November 17, 2016 However, watch early/mid December for a potential EPO tank following the next +WPO burst. Might benefit the Midwest/East more than the west, though, so it's not a given.Seems like that's the time to watch for a possible retrograde of the main players. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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