Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Constantly at day 10 it seems...Tonight it'll be at day 9 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The 12Z NCEP control on December 10 to 11 is insane. Almost 500 thickness and temps below -15C for Vancouver BC. Precipitation too. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Constantly at day 10 it seems... Typical timing adjustments with things like this. If it happens I'm guessing day 9 or so. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The 12Z NCEP control on December 10 to 11 is insane. Almost 500 thickness and temps below -15C for Vancouver BC. Precipitation too.That works for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 That works for me.And those are surface temps, not 850 temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 A number of really cold ensemble members on the 12z GFS. The control model is quite insane alright. Nearly drops to -20 for Seattle. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 What was that someone said several pages back about how when timing gets pushed back, it could be indicitive of colder air incoming than what was previously shown..? Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 18z in 2 hours 10 minutes!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 And those are surface temps, not 850 temps.5 degrees sounds glorious Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 [ Model Countdown ]Next up....*18z GFS in 2 hours 7 minutes00z GFS in 8 hours 7 minutes00z GEM in 9 hours 7 minutes00z ECMWF in 10 hours 24 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 5 degrees sounds gloriousCan you guess the last time I had temps like that? It starts with 200 and ends with 8. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Number one analog today at day 11 is 1964. Another huge cold snap. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Can you guess the last time I had temps like that? It starts with 200 and ends with 8.Yes, I'm ready to order. I'll take a combo package of 2008 and 1950. To go. Yes, I want napkins, and throw in some gloves and a snow shovel. Thanks. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yes, I'm ready to order. I'll take a combo package of 2008 and 1950. To go. Yes, I want napkins, and throw in some gloves and a snow shovel. Thanks.That will be $35/month. If you pay an extra $99 for insurance I will throw in an extra snow storm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Yes, I'm ready to order. I'll take a combo package of 2008 and 1950. To go. Yes, I want napkins, and throw in some gloves and a snow shovel. Thanks.LOL... you are funny, it's a pleasure reading your posts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 That will be $35/month. If you pay an extra $99 for insurance I will throw in an extra snow storm.That would be cool. If we could control the weather, and at times we could pay to have extreme weather events like snow storms/bitter cold.... We'd have snow in July if I had it my way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Where's Tim? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 LOL... you are funny, it's a pleasure reading your posts.Thanks. Lol I do what I can, when I can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Where's Tim?Outside playing with Moss. Even making a Moss figurine/action hero that looks like Jim. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Thanks. Lol I do what I can, when I can.Much appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 10. Nothing is getting closer. I've been hearing the same exact thing for almost a week now. Typical winter models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 We can track the dome of high pressure(that becomes our Aleutian Ridge) in real-time I believe it's over eastern Mongolia. Will have to look at a map..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 What was that someone said several pages back about how when timing gets pushed back, it could be indicitive of colder air incoming than what was previously shown..?That was me. When we first started to get a tease of a pattern change, there was no cold air to work with on this side of the globe. It essentially would have been a waste of a beautiful upper level pattern. I just mentioned that a delay at the time wouldn't be a bad thing because it could allow time for the bitter air to shift around a bit 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 10. Nothing is getting closer. I've been hearing the same exact thing for almost a week now. Typical winter models. The really good stuff has only been in sight for a few days. Before we were talking about just going a little below normal which will happen over the next few days. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Outside playing with Moss. Even making a Moss figurine/action hero that looks like Jim. I should feel honored! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 FWIW, the CPC update from yesterday for the experimental 3-4 week period gives the PNW a chance at a white Christmas with a close to 50% chance of below normal temps! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 FWIW, the CPC update from yesterday for the experimental 3-4 week period gives the PNW a chance at a white Christmas with a close to 50% chance of below normal temps! I never knew they had that product. Interesting! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 The updated run of the 12z EURO is progressing nicely. At Day 10 the Arctic Front is right at the Canada-US border. Notice the true Arctic air basically engulfing all of British Columbia. The Arctic air is hugging the coastline as well. None of it is trending east. The over water trajectory of the L will be good to increase moisture chances. Everything is coming together, we are well on our way to the Promised Land. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112612/240/850t.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112612/240/850tw.conus.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016112612/240/sfcmslp.na.png 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Kinda nice out. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I just asked Mark to chime in and give his thoughts. We all know we want to hear his over anyone's on here lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Day 10. Nothing is getting closer. I've been hearing the same exact thing for almost a week now. Typical winter models.Yeah. A few things I liked and disliked about today's 12z ECMWF run. - LikedExtremely amplified blockMuch colder into southwestern BC rather than confined to along/east of Canadian RockiesStrong cross polar flow - DislikedShortwave digs south off Alaska soonerTiming slowed downArctic air/trough digs off BC too soon. That delays the cold airs push southward and often cuts it off right at the Canadian border.Offshore ridge before day 8 a tad less suppressed It's possible though with the block holding where it is that the arctic air would continue to spill southward. We never want to see models slow down or move things back as that has always led to a complete model collapse. This could just be one "hiccup" so to speak. The GEM however did not delay things instead timing moved ahead. Ensembles as well. We sure do not want to see 00z runs tonight trend that way though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Through day 9 the ECMWF ensemble is faster and further east with the trough than the operational. The control is about the same speed as the operational, but further east. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Through day 9 the ECMWF ensemble is faster and further east with the trough than the operational. The control is about the same speed as the operational, but further east.Sounds promising. Is it digging southward ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's crazy, I probably have between 1.5 to 2 inches of rain now today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 I know we have all been waiting for an update from the Japanese. Looks good at day 9, similar to the Canadian. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/jma_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_216_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Sounds promising. Is it digging southward ??? It's up to day 11 now and it looks good on both. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 12z EPS 500mb anomaly digs the arctic trough right down the BC coast not way offshore. Good sign. I can't tell how far south or other finer details. Yukon/BC look bitterly cold. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 It's up to day 11 now and it looks good on both.Arctic front through SEA/PDX ???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 Arctic front through SEA/PDX ???? 12z EPS ensemble and control run show that the arctic front stalls and doesn't push into the lower 48. All the real cold stuff stays up in the territories. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted November 26, 2016 Report Share Posted November 26, 2016 12z EPS ensemble and control run show that the arctic front stalls and doesn't push into the lower 48. Stalls right over Western WA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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