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November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest


Gradient Keeper

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All the composite analogs are, are the analogs for the modeled pattern, so if it doesn't verify than no goods. I think some people think it is some kind of forecast. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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4:01 PM [ Model Countdown ]

Next up....
*00z GFS in 3 hours 27 minutes
00z GEM in 4 hours 27 minutes
00z ECMWF in 5 hours 44 minutes
Colder runs ahead - MBG. Will that be tonight's 00s runs, or tomorrow. I have no idea. I literally don't have a clue what I'm doing or talking about. You keep your expectations of yourself super low and you'll surprise yourself sometimes.
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Snow has started here. It'll be a bit before it sticks on roads though.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 16
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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A part of me is excited for the PacNW and in turn for the forum. Another part of me wants Lucy to pull the football and for me to get dumped on with snow.

Time to move back!! You have 10 days!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Thanks all

Don't mention it. We saw it in the store and it just SCREAMED you. We included a gift receipt in case it doesn't fit and you need to exchange it, although it was the only XXXL we could find. You should probably lose a little weight.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Rain finally starting to fall. Temp down to 44 after a high of 51. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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If the analogs at day 8 are good and many of those years had major cold waves/snow a few days later then it kind of does mean something. The progression at day 8 is likely to lead to something similar to those years... so if we can just get to day 8...

 

Correct. Discounting the analogs as meaningless is essentially the same as completely discounting the models.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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He's right though. Those analogs are a snapshot of a specific pattern which may have progressed entirely different leading up to and following that narrow cross section. They really don't mean anything from a forecast perspective.

 

Then why does the CPC use them?

 

I think they are helpful in that you can see the different outcomes from similar patterns. If a large percentage of patterns led to similar progressions from that point, that's a meaningful forecast tool.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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He is right in that they aren't a forecasting tool, but you can get an idea of what is likely by using them if 8 out of 10 analogs are arctic blasts.

That's more about pattern recognition. Regardless of what analogs are shown, people know what an Arctic outbreak pattern signature is from a 500mb pattern standpoint. In other words, we know if the ensembles depict a meridional +PNA pattern, analogs aren't going to be Arctic. With a meridional -PNA pattern? Arctic analogs.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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That's more about pattern recognition. Regardless of what analogs are shown, people know what an Arctic outbreak pattern signature is from a 500mb pattern standpoint. In other words, we know if the ensembles depict a meridional +PNA pattern, analogs aren't going to be Arctic. With a meridional -PNA pattern? Arctic analogs.

I find comfort in that the anolog years being shown don't show years that shove a huge chunk of arctic air to our east and leave us under a death ridge.

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Then why does the CPC use them?

 

I think they are helpful in that you can see the different outcomes from similar patterns. If a large percentage of patterns led to similar progressions from that point, that's a meaningful forecast tool.

I dunno. Probably to give those who don't know much of anything about pattern recognition something to chew on. Otherwise it's just telling you that a cold pattern has verified with cold weather in the past.

 

Models after all are entirely about analogs. The only reason they have any chance in hell of predicting the future is because it's happened before.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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I find comfort in that the anolog years being shown don't show years that shove a huge chunk of arctic air to our east and leave us under a death ridge.

 

Then you don't really understand them. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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PDX down four degrees in the last hour.

 

Arctic air moving in earlier than expected???

 

PDX down four degrees in the last hour.

 

Arctic air moving in earlier than expected???

 

I have dropped 8 degrees in the past hour! Only 9 degrees away from my first freeze!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Clearing skies on a light north wind here. Today feels a lot different than most of this fall has.

Still pouring here but the north facing house windows are now wet so I must now have a north wind.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Temp has dropped from 55 to 44 at SLE in the past 2 hours. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18z Composite Analogs

This is by far the best we've seen yet. Also, for the first time the 6-10 Day improved dramatically. Yes, the correlation score needs work. However, the 8-14 Day is incredibly incredible. :o :D
 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs610.gif
 
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_18gfs814.gif

 

 

It's always great to see the analog of the 1968-69 Winter and Dec 2008 show up as the top correlations!

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f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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The updated run of the GFS is the best model run to date. It goes full blown Arctic mode. The trend is our friend and their all going in the right direction. The updated runs of the last GEM, EURO and GFS are now all the best runs to date in terms of how close the Arctic air is to us. Let's continue this trend for all the 00z runs tonight!  B)

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112618/240/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112618/288/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112618/384/500h_anom.na.png

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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Temp down to 39 now with heavy rain. To bad the airmass isn't just a touch cooler. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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You have your own forum, leave us be with your selfishness :)

We'll kick your a**es in the end, so it's all good. :P

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That's one monster anticyclonic breaker on the 12z EPS mean.

 

Will be hard to fail if that comes to fruition.

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