November 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Does have a November 2006 feel to it.

[snow_wizard]

Fabulous run so far for Seattle.  AT FACE VALUE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING.  The track of that low is perfect for cold backwash.

 

Clumsy fingers on the caps lock again.

[FroYoBro]

Fabulous run so far for Seattle.  AT FACE VALUE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING.  The track of that low is perfect for cold backwash.

 

Clumsy fingers on the caps lock again.

Lol. This caps lock persona is pretty good. 

[Brennan]

Fabulous run so far for Seattle. AT FACE VALUE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING. The track of that low is perfect for cold backwash.

 

Clumsy fingers on the caps lock again.

No just excited fingers

[TT-SEA]

Fabulous run so far for Seattle.  AT FACE VALUE WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY MORNING.  The track of that low is perfect for cold backwash.

 

Clumsy fingers on the caps lock again.

 

I am doubting your caps issue... seems like you wanted to highlight that part.

 

And you could have easily retyped that sentence in about the time it took you type the part explaining it.   

[TT-SEA]

Sunday keeps changing dramatically with each run.

 

Here is Sunday afternoon from 12Z run:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

And now the 00Z run for Sunday afternoon:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

[Bryant]

Shortwave going to dig and push that D**n block back out where we'd like it?

[luvssnow_spokane]

lots of -10 850mb temps in the puget sound. ANY moisture and it will be amazingly white.

[Bryant]

I am doubting your caps issue... seems like you wanted to highlight that part.

 

And you could have easily retyped that sentence in about the time it took you type the part explaining it.

What's wrong with highlighting the possibility of snow at a sooner time frame than previously shown? Tim getting upset at Jim's excitement? How cute

[snow_wizard]

Sunday keeps changing dramatically with each run.

 

Here is Sunday afternoon from 12Z run:

 

 

And now the 00Z run for Sunday afternoon:

 

 

The track of the low is much better to say the least.  If that were to verify there would easily be snow in the Seattle area...at least on the hills.

[Heavy Snow]

http://www.dcclubbing.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/winter-600x399.jpg

[snow_wizard]

I am doubting your caps issue... seems like you wanted to highlight that part.

 

And you could have easily retyped that sentence in about the time it took you type the part explaining it.   

 

I thought of that while I was typing the explanation.

[snow_wizard]

 

That picture looks totally real.

[TT-SEA]

I thought of that while I was typing the explanation.

 

 

I understand highlighting the part you did.   

 

Seems like a coincidence that it happened by accident perfectly on the most important part of your post.   

[Gradient Keeper]

Like I said last night with my bold prediction of models turning colder. The ridge is still over eastern Asia and won't move off Japan until Wednesday AM. Models do not have a handle on upper level pattern recognition. 12z runs proved that with the wild variability between the GEM, GFS, and ECMWF all showing different 500mb pattern evolution.

[van city]

http://www.dcclubbing.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/winter-600x399.jpg

LOL, did you get your shovel ready?

[Deweydog]

I understand highlighting the part you did.

 

Seems like a coincidence that it happened by accident perfectly on the most important part of your post.

The best part of comedy is when someone explains it in an extremely literal fashion.

[luvssnow_spokane]

can't wait to see how it looks at hour 240 and beyond!! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9-10 looks like the block is about to be pinched off.... RIP

[snow_wizard]

Looking at pivotal weather website for snowfall, 00z has considerably less snow around Western Washington than 18z run. Guessing that is due to Monday night/Tuesday being shown as completely dry now.

 

Although, at this point, it doesn't matter much I guess. If we get the temps good enough, hopefully moisture will work itself out in the NW flow.

 

I think Saturday night would have snow with the track of that low.  We'll see what the WRF thinks.

[Deweydog]

can't wait to see how it looks at hour 240 and beyond!!

Progressive!

 

Flo called and told me.

[snow_wizard]

Day 9-10 looks like the block is about to be pinched off.... RIP

 

This is probably just the appetizer anyway.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Progressive!

 

Flo called and told me.

 

I really like flo 

[Gradient Keeper]

or not? Day 10

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016112900/240/500h_anom.na.png

[Deweydog]

I really like flo

It's not lactose, it's milk!

[Heavy Snow]

LOL, did you get your shovel ready?

 

Yeah, I have a shovel and I bought a mini snow blower on Black Friday.

[MossMan]

Does have a November 2006 feel to it.

Perfection!!!

[seattleweatherguy]

I will take an inch sat into sun and wait for the big one

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Canadian looks pretty good IMO. 

[Heavy Snow]

Hopefully the models continue to trend colder as we get closer and closer. The trend is our friend again at the moment.

[Timmy]

I will take an inch sat into sun and wait for the big one

You would

[snow_wizard]

If one member logs on we will have a new record for number of members logged on in one day.

[Front Ranger]

Progressive!

 

Flo called and told me.

 

She probably has a better handle on things past 200 hours than the GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS and GEM a bit different with ridge placement and Aleutian energy

[van city]

Canadian looks pretty good IMO.

 

I was about to say the same?

 

DJ any thoughts?

[luvssnow_spokane]

If one member logs on we will have a new record for number of members logged on in one day.

More than 2008?  I remember the list below being like 4 rows deep and showing 100's logged in.

[Gradient Keeper]

I was about to say the same?

 

DJ any thoughts?

It looks like the arctic air might only get into northeast Washington.. Maybe Bellingham, but the bulk stays in BC. Not enough amplification with ridge at day 7.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like block tries to re-establish later in the run. go Flo!

[stuffradio]

Sunday keeps changing dramatically with each run.

 

Here is Sunday afternoon from 12Z run:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_26.png

 

And now the 00Z run for Sunday afternoon:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016112900/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

Great so now I get screwed and Seattle gets all the snow again

[Front Ranger]

Canadian looks pretty good IMO. 

 

Doesn't look as good as GFS...slower with cold air.