Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Yeah, I became much more optimistic in this summer when the QBO failed to cycle negative. The Niña/+QBO combo rarely fails to deliver in the PNW. The Niña/-QBO combo, on the other hand, fails more often than not, except during deep solar minimums.Science 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Well while we wait for the models Question time: Why does Santa Claus have a big sack ? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Get those studs on now!Do that, and we can all expect windshield splat test only type of snow all winter unless you live in the higher hills. Standard procedure is to wait until there is some snow on the ground, then rush to get them changed at Les Schwab at the same time as everyone else. Count on a 4 hour wait. This is necessary unless you choose to go without studs or would just like to cancel winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Well while we wait for the models Question time: Why does Santa Claus have a big sack ?I'm not sure I want the answer to that question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Do that, and we can all expect windshield splat test only type of snow all winter unless you live in the higher hills.Standard procedure is to wait until there is some snow on the ground, then rush to get them changed at Les Schwab at the same time as everyone else. Count on a 4 hour wait. This is necessary unless you choose to go without studs or would just like to cancel winter.I'm at 423 feet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Anyone staying up for the 0z GFS run? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Anyone staying up for the 0z GFS run?Yup, Are you? Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Yup, Are you? We'll see! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I'm at 423 feetAre you sure you're not 420'? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 1 Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 My joke got deleted It wasn't even that bad... There's other places for the extreme OT stuff. This isn't an AOL chat room. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold front Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Why was Frosty the Snowman smiling?The snow blower was coming down the street. Ba dum pum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 There's other places for the extreme OT stuff. This isn't an AOL chat room.Oh no Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather101 Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Why was Frosty the Snowman smiling?The snow blower was coming down the street. Ba dum pum.LOL Quote 2013/2014 Winter season Coldest Low: 14 F December 7thColdest High: 27.3 F December 7thColdest Wind chill: 5 F December 7thLowest Dew Point: -2.2 F December 6thDays below freezing: 5Total Snowfall: 11 inchesMost snowfall in a Day: 8 inchesDays With Snow: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 00z GFSBegins in.... 3 minutes Let's continue the trend of the offshore ridge being suppressed, not pushing as far inland, and a strong ridge. We definitely want a good southeast US ridge. If I really wanted to be greedy around day 7 I'd really like seeing the offshore ridge merging with the Aleutian/western Alaska block. We just need the block to hold. Feel free to play along (You may need to refresh pages)Northwest view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=nwus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North America view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=namer&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197North Pacific view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=npac&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197Alaska view - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=ak&pkg=T850&runtime=2016112912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=197 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Block is much stronger on the 0z. You heard it here first! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 There could be a merge. You heard that here first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Another storm system will bring a chance of light snow to thearea Wednesday with snow showers persisting in the IdahoPanhandle through Thursday. Unsettled and breezy conditions returnfor the weekend. By the beginning of next week temperatures havethe potential to be the coldest we have seen so far this winter.&&.DISCUSSION......Another winter weather system is expected for later tonightthrough Thursday...Tonight through Thursday morning...Model solutions remain quiteconsistent on breaking down the shortwave ridge tonight andWednesday and replacing it with an upper level trough. Lightprecipitation is expected to begin late this evening as a weakwarm front develops per isentropic analysis. Although there isn`tmuch precipitation west of the Cascades currently, the echoes arebeginning to intensify as they track slowly eastward. Most of theprecipitation associated with this front will be confined to thefar northern portions of Washington and extreme northern Idaho asit tracks east of the Cascades. Precipitation will becoming muchmore widespread as the trailing cold front moves into the regionlater tonight and Wednesday. This has been trending slightlyslower with each successive model run. Now the front is expectedto arrive in the Cascades and Wenatchee area between 4-7am andinto the Spokane/CdA/Pullman area between 7am-10am. The front willthen move completely into the Idaho Panhandle between 10am andearly afternoon. Once it moves here its eastward push will beimpeded by a shortwave trough which will drop southeast viasouthern BC. 500 mb temperatures will plummet with the arrival ofthis feature and lapse rates through the dendritic layer willsteepen as well. This pattern persists through the entire nightand even into Thursday while the mean mid-level flow takes on anorth-northwest orientation. This is a favored setup for numerousshowers, mainly over the central Idaho Panhandle, Camas Prairie,and Blue Mountains. So what sort of weather will this bring?* Snow....We are quite confident that this event will begin assnow for almost all locations as the cold front approaches. Theonly exceptions would be over the southern Columbia Basin southof Highway 2 or so. By afternoon, snow levels will rise toaround 2000 feet in the north to around 3000 feet in the south,however based on the convective nature of the atmosphere, we`dexpect to see a mix of rain and snow showers, especially for theeastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Snowlevels will fall again to the valleys floors overnight and intoThursday. This is when we could see appreciable snowaccumulations for the central Panhandle.* Impacts...This is the hard part of the forecast. Although most ofwhat falls ahead of the cold front will be snow, roadtemperatures may not be all that conducive to accumulations asthey quickly rise above freezing. Confidence is good that itwill accumulate over the northern valleys and over westernportions of the forecast area, but as the front nears northIdaho those accumulations become a little less sure as roadtemps are expected to rise above freezing. Accumulations thenbecome much more likely overnight. So locations south of theSilver Valley such as Clarkia, Avery, and Bovill stand a goodchance of significant snows as the threat of showers continuesfrom late tomorrow afternoon through Thursday. We will issue awinter weather advisory for 4 to 8 inches of snow, with anywherefrom 2 to 4 inches in the Silver Valley. Snow accumulationswill also be possible on the Camas Prairie, mainly overnight andinto early Thursday above 2000 feet, but accumulations hereshould fall short of advisory criteria with about 1 to 3 inchespossible. Similar amounts are expected to occur over the BlueMountains. fxThursday through Sunday...The western edge of a trof containingconditionally unstable air lingers overhead of Eastern Washingtonand Northern Idaho Thursday but gets pushed quickly to the east byan incoming low amplitude, yet very broad, ridge of high pressureThursday night. The flow becomes more north to northeast Thursdaynight into early Friday. By late Friday a well maintained plume ofsubtropical moisture fluxing through the ridge sags southeast andover Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho. The flow is quite zonaland as a result the pops remain highest over the mountain locationswithin the close vicinity of the Cascade Crest, near the BritishColumbia Border and mountains of North Idaho with a discreterain/snow shadow encompassing the lowland (non mountain) locationsbetween the Cascade Crest and the North Idaho Mountains Friday Nightand Saturday. Once the moisture plume passes to the south a trofbehind it drops down and through as well allowing for robust/gustywest and northwest winds on Sunday along with colder temperaturesand dropping snow levels as the airmass behind the passing trof is acold conditionally unstable one. /Pelatti...Colder temperatures Sunday night through at least early next week...Sunday night through Tuesday: Models agree on the general upperlevel pattern of a trough exiting the region. There is still achance of precip...mainly across the mountains through Monday.Then a ridge will build across the west coast and shift inlandtowards Wednesday. Meanwhile at the surface...high pressure willmove south out of Canada and into western Montana. This is aclassic set up for a cold air intrusion into our region.Main changes to the forecast was to lower temperatures. Loweredtemperatures anywhere from 3 to 12 degrees...with the biggestchanges by next Tuesday and Tuesday Night. Temperatures will lowerabout 10 degrees from Sunday to Monday and about another 4-8 byTuesday. Average high temperatures by early next week are usuallyin the mid 30s to around 40...we instead will be seeing highs inthe mid 20s to mid 30s. East slope Cascades valleys and portionsof the western Columbia Basin will be the last to see the colderair reach them. Average low temperatures are usually in the mid toupper 20s...by next Tue morning we could see temps in the teens tolower 20s with Wednesday morning temperatures potentially gettingdown into the single digits to lower teens. /Nisbet TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS?????? D**n it boy! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 2 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016113000/048/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I've got a contest here if anyone is interested.Looks pretty fun...Nice prize too. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 3 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016113000/072/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 4 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016113000/096/500h_anom.na.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 4 looks amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Blocking is much stiffer, stinkier and subversive. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Block definitely looking blockier at hour 108. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 5 MUCH BETTER. Energy on northwest side of block much weaker this run http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016113000/120/500h_anom.na.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I'm starting to think we may be in for 500-1000 ft snow levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 00Z GFS is drier up here compared to the 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Well while we wait for the models Question time: Why does Santa Claus have a big sack ? 1x a year. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Day 5 MUCH BETTER. Energy on northwest side of block much weaker this run http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016113000/120/500h_anom.na.pngOfficially getting excited now! Oh the water pump on my wife's SUV just went out...the last time I had a water pump go out in one of our vehicles... December 2008. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Low sliding down the coast Sunday night is a couple mb stronger on the 00z. It'll be interesting to see how it handles moisture. EDIT: It slides further offshore though and ends up drier. Details details though. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Blocking is much stiffer, stinkier and subversive. Expect a Trump tweet about it shortly. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Officially getting excited now! Oh the water pump on my wife's SUV just went out...the last time I had a water pump go out in one of our vehicles... December 2008. Great sign! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 This run looks dangerous. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 00Z GFS is drier up here compared to the 12Z run.Not concerned about precip at all...we can start looking at that on Saturday. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 This run looks dangerous.Dangerous? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 I'm starting to think we may be in for 500-1000 ft snow levels.You think the swamp will freeze over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Might be an Oregon snow event when the air is cold enough for lowland snow on Sunday night and Monday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Not concerned about precip at all...we can start looking at that on Saturday. Bingo. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted November 30, 2016 Report Share Posted November 30, 2016 Might be an Oregon snow event when the air is cold enough for lowland snow on Sunday night and Monday. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016113000/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png Hard to imagine that being sea level snow in Oregon with the low still to their NW though. I'd feel pretty good if we can get a low that strong sliding down the coast. Easy to get some convergence in situations like that like the 12z showed. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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