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Winter 2016 Medium to Long Range Discussion; 5+ days out

hlcater

By hlcater
in East of the Rockies

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Jaycee
Jaycee

I want it to snow as much as any of you, but this is ridiculous. Think about it, there are 3 low pressure systems at play, and we're still way out. Let alone the fact the GFS showed 40" yesterday, are

Money
Money

3rd and 15 with jay cutler as qb

OKwx2k4
OKwx2k4

At a quick glance, the weeklies looked like the analog 1978. Big pretty Aleutian low, -EPO lors of blocking in the sweet spot and weekly snowstorms from January 23 to the end of the run. The run of th

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

Posted
Posted

Call it what you want, last year we reached seasonal average snowfall here. That's 3 times the amount we have had this year!

I went back and looked at Lincoln's season snow totals. I looked at the years with single digit snow totals and compared it to the next year, here is what I got.....

 

67-68: 7.2" of snow, the next snow season brought 40"

 

65-66: 9" fell, the next year 22.8"

 

53-54: 9.8" of snow, the next year 23.6" 

 

Here is my favorite, 63-64 had 13", the next year 42.1" of snow, 26" of it fell in February! 

 

Needless to say, I'm thinking we finish in single digit snow totals; next year we will see at least double. Never has there been back to back single digit snow totals. 

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Andrew NE Newbie

Andrew NE

Posted
Posted

No bueno on that Euro map. After upper 50s to near 60 this weekend into early next week I'm calling it quits on winter.

You actually have a good chance compared to most of the sub forum in getting at least something out of a Dakota special, but I know where your coming from! End the misery already!

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

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Hope we can make this up with some semi decent severe action in the spring, been awhile since we've had a really good event here in E IA, but maybe my expectations are too high

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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Surprising model agreement to end Feb and open March.  GEFS/EPS/CFSv2/JMA Weeklies all pretty much agree that March will open like a Lion...but for how long???

 

Both CFSv2/JMA Weeklies see the end to Winter's last assault just after the 15th or so of March.  Before that happens, it may be a pretty crazy ride.

 

I'm seeing some shades of March '14 during the 1st week of March.  After the torch this coming weekend into next week, temps in the 20's are going to be a shocker to the system.  I have a string of 5 days in the 60's in the forecast.  I'm sure the daffodils will start popping up through the ground. 

 

 

 

C4yoh0kUcAIOH6g.jpg

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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00z EPS likes MSP/Northwoods region...maybe parts of NE this far out???  Hope this time models to crap this storm out.  Would like to track a juiced up storm that can benefit this sub forum.  

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2017021600/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_10.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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We'll have to see how strong the Hudson Bay ridge ends up being to see how strong the storm cuts.  We don't have a raging positive NAO which may help steer this storm in the right direction.  

 

Near neutral NAO is being forecast...unfortunately, the AO is forecast to be positive....

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

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Jaycee Explorer

Jaycee

Posted
Posted

I am confident I will see nothing from this storm, but man, that thing is a monster, so I'm going to track it because this year has been awful that I don't care if it hits us or not!

 

Additionally, I know our winter has sucked, but has anyone seen the drought relief in California this year? My gosh is that good for them. I didn't think I'd ever see the day where they come out of it, a lake I used to visit out there was turned into a puddle, but it looks like things are finally coming back around!

 

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

 

They are about to get pummeled again this upcoming week. Looks like almost the whole state will be out of the drought, almost entirely!! Awesome for them.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

I'll gladly take 2 inches just to end the futility streak

 

Look what CALI endured, how do you know it's not a multi-year streak?? ;) :wacko:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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