December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Day 10.

 

ps2png-atls00-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-sXn5u2.png

COLD.

[Phil]

Some strange model analysis in here today. By d9, the 12Z ECMWF has a higher wavenumber than the GFS, and a much deeper trough in the NPAC.

 

How is this beneficial? Looks more like a typical ECMWF bias in digging shortwaves too far S/SW.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/001545A5-28EA-4F04-8B41-6B7ECFDB1729_zpstib5re6c.png

[van city]

Day 10!!! Boom!!!

[snow_wizard]

-30C into southern BC at day 10.  Hey, 10 days away again!

Don't forget there is plenty of cold way before that. Amazing how people always manage to belittle positive trends.

[seattleweatherguy]

So chances it snows monday and we'd to thurs still there?

[ShawniganLake]

Good grief. It's only early Dec.

What?  I have high expectations for next week.  8" here seems reasonable. 

[snow_wizard]

Some strange model analysis in here today. By d9, the 12Z ECMWF has a higher wavenumber than the GFS, and a much deeper trough in the NPAC.

 

How is this beneficial? Looks more like a typical ECMWF bias in digging shortwaves too far S/SW

 

Are you serious?

 

There is decent ensemble support on the GFS for a colder week two as well.

[snow_wizard]

So chances it snows monday and we'd to thurs still there?

Of course.

[FroYoBro]

WARNING SHOT CONFIRMED!

[Phil]

Don't forget there is plenty of cold way before that. Amazing how people always manage to belittle positive trends.

I feel like I'm on another planet here. All I see is another wave complex bound to slide east of the Rockies following an EAMT surge and corresponding height falls over/south of the Aleutians.

[bainbridgekid]

Some strange model analysis in here today. By d9, the 12Z ECMWF has a higher wavenumber than the GFS, and a much deeper trough in the NPAC.

 

How is this beneficial? Looks more like a typical ECMWF bias in digging shortwaves too far S/SW.

Doesn't look particularly believable based on the less than stellar blocking upstream, but it shows a major arctic blast at day 10. That's always going to get some people fired up.

[Front Ranger]

So chances it snows monday and we'd to thurs still there?

 

Yes. However, Monday/Monday night is looking borderline for temps (at least if you're near sea level), and Wed night/Thursday is just a question of how long the cold air sticks around and how fast the precip moves in.

[Heavy Snow]

The updated run of the 12z KING EURO looks MAJESTIC! It looks nice during the short, medium and long range!

 

For PDX, it looks like 0.5" to 2" possible thru Tuesday. Then a big over-running event on Thursday with a widespread 5" to 8" snow then ice for PDX Metro. Then a true Arctic Blast comes at Day 10!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120312/240/500h_anom.na.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf/2016120312/240/850t.na.png

[Kayla]

850mb temps of -15c at SEA and -12c at PDX on day 10 of the Euro. Awesome progression.

[Front Ranger]

I feel like I'm on another planet here. All I see is another wave complex bound to slide east of the Rockies following an EAMT surge and corresponding height falls over/south of the Aleutians.

 

The models have been all over the place with the pattern in week 2. No need to over-analyze any given run in that period at this point.

[dairyd]

Looks like Fraser outflow kicks up Sunday night and peaking Tuesday. Maybe down to a low of 20 with that wind.  Ugh.

 

[Phil]

Are you serious?

 

There is decent ensemble support on the GFS for a colder week two as well.

Yep. I like the GFS more because it's slower with the EAMT cycle hence would delay the onset of the NPAC jet extension. The ECMWF solution would devolve into that sort of pattern fairly quickly. Not trying to crash the party, just pointing out what I think needs to be pointed out.

[Front Ranger]

850mb temps of -15c at SEA and -12c at PDX on day 10 of the Euro. Awesome progression.

 

-18C at Vancouver.

[stuffradio]

Crazy Euros. I won't post about it on Facebook until Day 7.

[snow_wizard]

I feel like I'm on another planet here. All I see is another wave complex bound to slide east of the Rockies following an EAMT surge and corresponding height falls over/south of the Aleutians.

OK...

 

You always seem to manage to ruin people's hopes when we have great model runs.

[Sometimesdylan]

We're gonna be cooking up (or down...) a cold one. Wonder who we're gonna pass it off to.

 

[Front Ranger]

Doesn't look particularly believable based on the less than stellar blocking upstream, but it shows a major arctic blast at day 10. That's always going to get some people fired up.

 

Yeah, the blocking in the Pacific isn't inspiring, but the Alaskan block is something to behold. That would almost certainly lead to somewhere in the lower 48 getting quite cold. 

[Phil]

The models have been all over the place with the pattern in week 2. No need to over-analyze any given run in that period at this point.

The large scale pattern/forcing progression (regardless of minute details) is something that can be analyzed. I'm not even looking at the smaller scale stuff.

[snow_wizard]

If the ECMWF were to verify we would be looking at 850s down to -20 the next day. Keep in mind the 0z ECMWF control model was similar to this. Keep in mind I'm not saying it will happen...just repeating what the models are showing.

[Front Ranger]

This Euro run would result in a tanked PNA throughout.

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

The large scale pattern/forcing progression (regardless of minute details) is something that can be analyzed. I'm not even looking at the smaller scale stuff.

Probably why you feel like you are on another planet sometimes. 

[stuffradio]

Coldest December since 2008 confirmed.

[Phil]

Also, that stuff at d10 looks suspiciously like the classic ECMWF bias of digging troughs too far SW over mountainous terrain.

 

The ECMWF has never handled North American mountain torquing well, for whatever reason.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, the blocking in the Pacific isn't inspiring, but the Alaskan block is something to behold. That would almost certainly lead to somewhere in the lower 48 getting quite cold.

For sure. Having that kind of height anomalies floating around up there always keeps the door open. All I can say is the trends are good today.

[Front Ranger]

The large scale pattern/forcing progression (regardless of minute details) is something that can be analyzed. I'm not even looking at the smaller scale stuff.

 

Ok. There seem to be some pretty large scale differences past day 5 to me.

[snow_wizard]

Also, that stuff at d10 looks suspiciously like the classic ECMWF bias of digging troughs too far SW over mountainous terrain.

 

The ECMWF has never handled North American mountain torquing well, for whatever reason.

Uh huh.

[Front Ranger]

Some strange model analysis in here today. By d9, the 12Z ECMWF has a higher wavenumber than the GFS, and a much deeper trough in the NPAC.

 

How is this beneficial? Looks more like a typical ECMWF bias in digging shortwaves too far S/SW.

 

 

 

Also, that stuff at d10 looks suspiciously like the classic ECMWF bias of digging troughs too far SW over mountainous terrain. The recent pattern evolution speaks to that as well, seeing its NE shift in the trough axis by 300+ miles over the last three days,

 

The ECMWF has never handled North American mountain torquing well, for whatever reason.

 

You're repeating yourself.

[Phil]

Ok. There seem to be some pretty large scale differences past day 5 to me.

There are..the ECMWF has a huge east-Asian mountain torque cycle beginning, and is much more aggressive w/ it than the GFS/GEFS. In the end that usually bodes poorly for NPAC blocking.

[Sometimesdylan]

With a high pressure this long and sustained, I'm wondering how long we'll be under high winds. We could probably have a good 3 week stretch of winds >30mph in some locations. Freezing spray... Shallow bays will start icing up.... and my truck does not have a working heater core...

[Phil]

You're repeating yourself.

Yeah I realized that, hence my deletion of that line from the post.

 

It was only up there for 10 seconds.

[snow_wizard]

With a high pressure this long and sustained, I'm wondering how long we'll be under high winds. We could probably have a good 3 week stretch of winds >30mph in some locations. Freezing spray... Shallow bays will start icing up.... and my truck does not have a working heater core...

I can't imagine not having a heater up there. My heater was out during one of our bigger cold waves here in the 1980s and it was a pain in the arse. The windows were continually getting frosty on the inside.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That is some seriously cold stuff on the euro.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah I realized that, hence my deletion of that line from the post.

 

It was only up there for 10 seconds.

BTW...I'm not saying your are wrong, but it is possible you are.

[snow_wizard]

That is some seriously cold stuff on the euro.

Epic if it were to verify.

[Phil]

BTW...I'm not saying your are wrong, but it is possible you are.

Ain't that the truth.

 

It's very, very easy to be wrong in this business. That's part of what makes it fun and interesting.