December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[westcoastexpat]

-30C into southern BC at day 10.  Hey, 10 days away again!

 

-17C for metro Vancouver

[ShawniganLake]

-17C for metro Vancouver

Yea, much colder in the southern interior.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This month is going to get good. We are due!!

[Perturbed Member]

850mb temps of -15c at SEA and -12c at PDX on day 10 of the Euro. Awesome progression.

 

The good stuff is always just around the corner isn't it? Hopefully the king follows through.

[Jesse]

Ain't that the truth.

 

It's very, very easy to be wrong in this business. That's part of what makes it fun and interesting.

The thing is, your analysis almost always tends to skew negative for us lately, even when things are looking good. It is pretty transparent.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I want to see some 1989 cold to show some of these kids on here how cold it really can get in these parts.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen posted his usual ultra conservative stuff about this week: 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

 

 

Here are the essentials for PDX Monday:

 

"SUNDAY-MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS

• Rainy start Sunday, then dry and partly cloudy, no sticking snow below 1,500
• During Monday AM commute, EVERYONE WILL SEE SNOW IN THE AIRas snow showers arrive before sunrise
• If you live ABOVE 1,000′, expect 1-2″ snow on the ground by mid-morning
• If you live in the higher hills around town (West Hills/Mt. Scott/Sylvan) near 1,000′, expect a trace to 1″
• At the surface (where most of us live) a dusting is possible, maybe even up to 1″ on the lawns/barkdust
• I DON’T EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE A.M. COMMUTE ON HIGHWAYS/FREEWAYS, but probably very slow as we all gawk at the snow
• SOME SNOW WILL GET ON ROADS HIGHER UP IN HILLS (for sure above 1,000′)
• Monday afternoon commute will be uneventful with temperatures in the upper 30s and scattered light showers"

[Phil]

The thing is, your analysis almost always tends to skew negative for us lately, even when things are looking good. It is pretty transparent.

There you go with the paranoia again. Not true at all. When I something I believe to be negative, that's what I convey. Visa versa when I see something positive.

[Jesse]

There you go with the paranoia again. Not true at all.

It's pretty obvious to anyone who has been following your posting patterns the last several days. Whenever we get a good run you pop in to say how it's flawed and won't verify because of improper initiation of anticyclonic wavbreakers or if not that then how the CFS is showing a January toaster bath for the west.

 

You can post whatever you want and we appreciate your input, but you must be able to understand how many of us may be perceiving your tone to be rather negative.

[Kayla]

The good stuff is always just around the corner isn't it? Hopefully the king follows through.

 

Not really. Models have actually been doing great with progressing things, even this upcoming week cool airmass never got pushed back. And the EPS ensembles have been picking up on something arctic in the 13-14th for several days now.

 

I think it's more of peoples anxiousness and lack of patience while in reality the models have been performing pretty darn well considering the complexity of the pattern.

[The Swamp]

Also, that stuff at d10 looks suspiciously like the classic ECMWF bias of digging troughs too far SW over mountainous terrain.

 

The ECMWF has never handled North American mountain torquing well, for whatever reason.

This is what a lot of people miss. Those big mountains and the models not accounting for them. If the topography was just flat as my high school girlfriends chest we'd have snowstorms every winter.

 

For a certain poster on this site to say something at day 9 of the models is "almost certain to happen" is ridiculous.

[The Swamp]

It's pretty obvious to anyone who has been following your posting patterns the last several days. Whenever we get a good run you pop in to say how it's flawed and won't verify because of improper initiation of anticyclonic wavbreakers or if not that then how the CFS is showing a January toaster bath for the west.

 

You can post whatever you want and we appreciate your input, but you must be able to understand how many of us may be perceiving your tone to be rather negative.

Or it's just a dose of reality?

 

You think the cascades and Rockies don't impede the progress of that cold air?

[Kayla]

Ain't that the truth.

 

It's very, very easy to be wrong in this business. That's part of what makes it fun and interesting.

 

Haven't you been forecasting something around mid month? Is that not the case now?

[Phil]

Yes, Jesse, I was being "negative" all summer long with my forecasts for a troughy background state. Also my forecast for a colder than average PNW winter..so negative, right? How about my forecast for a possible Holiday season Arctic blast and a significant blast and/or solid pattern in February as well? Talk about being a debbie downer.

 

You're completely delusional and unhinged if you think I'm trolling and/or secretly biased against a certain outcome. Why would I work so hard on my winter forecast only to waste days trying to prove myself wrong? Lol.

[luminen]

Yeah I realized that, hence my deletion of that line from the post.

 

It was only up there for 10 seconds.

 

A lot can happen in 10 seconds. 

[Heavy Snow]

So far so good with my free trial of WeatherBell. I'm going to make a promise to WeatherBell right now that if the models, most importantly KING EURO keep showing what it shows at Day 10 or something close to it, that I will subscribe to the monthly plan. It's all up to them, if you want my money, show me an Arctic Blast! For that matter, give me somewhat close to what your showing for PDX on Thursday and I might even subscribe then! 

[FroYoBro]

 

Mark Nelsen posted his usual ultra conservative stuff about this week: 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

 

 

Here are the essentials for PDX Monday:

 

"SUNDAY-MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS

• Rainy start Sunday, then dry and partly cloudy, no sticking snow below 1,500
• During Monday AM commute, EVERYONE WILL SEE SNOW IN THE AIRas snow showers arrive before sunrise
• If you live ABOVE 1,000′, expect 1-2″ snow on the ground by mid-morning
• If you live in the higher hills around town (West Hills/Mt. Scott/Sylvan) near 1,000′, expect a trace to 1″
• At the surface (where most of us live) a dusting is possible, maybe even up to 1″ on the lawns/barkdust
• I DON’T EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE A.M. COMMUTE ON HIGHWAYS/FREEWAYS, but probably very slow as we all gawk at the snow
• SOME SNOW WILL GET ON ROADS HIGHER UP IN HILLS (for sure above 1,000′)
• Monday afternoon commute will be uneventful with temperatures in the upper 30s and scattered light showers"

 

 

More like he posted accurate stuff. 

[Jesse]

More like he posted accurate stuff.

I guess we can't really judge its accuracy until it happens.

[bainbridgekid]

Yes, Jesse, I was being "negative" all summer long with my forecasts for a troughy background state. Also my forecast for a colder than average PNW winter..so negative, right? How about my forecast for a possible Holiday season Arctic blast and a significant blast and/or solid pattern in February as well? Talk about being a debbie downer.

 

You're completely delusional and unhinged if you think I'm trolling and/or secretly biased against a certain outcome. Why would I work so hard on my winter forecast only to waste days trying to prove myself wrong? Lol.

Bingo.

 

It isn't that you are biased negative, but that you are biased toward believing patterns that support your Winter forecast verifying.

[Perturbed Member]

Not really. Models have actually been doing great with progressing things, even this upcoming week cool airmass never got pushed back. And the EPS ensembles have been picking up on something arctic in the 13-14th for several days now.

 

I think it's more of peoples anxiousness and lack of patience while in reality the models have been performing pretty darn well considering the complexity of the pattern.

 

 

Agree that they have been more consistent than I expected with this. Especially the Euro and GEM. I will be super impressed with the Euro if the 13-14th really ends up being something. I think like 1 week ago those euro weeklies had every member showing an event on the 13th-14th and it is still hanging on to the idea.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS thinking maybe an inch?

 

Drying overnight
Sunday night behind the cold frontal passage of Sunday will lead to a
wet bulb cooling situation over our forecast area that could drop
snow levels close to the valley floor by early Monday. NAM and GFS
model soundings still support this possibility. At this point expect
a rain or snow mix to develop after midnight Sunday night that could
change to mainly snow through a good part of the morning Monday.
Roads will be warm so the snow may take a while to stick and
accumulate, but close to an inch is within the range of
possibilities. The best chance of accumulations will be from around
Salem northward as the precipitation will be starting later in the
south and mix over to rain a bit faster. A light low level southerly
flow should eventually lift the snow level above the valley floors in
the afternoon but it may still hover in that 1000 foot range. These
exact details are still not certain, it just looks as though this is
the most likely scenario at this point. Tolleson

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Day 9 on the Euro is true Vodka cold. Wow!

 

Looks almost certain to hit WA by day 10 given the strong surface high off the West Coast to keep it from sliding east or stalling. Always nice to see that "anchor" out there.

Putin would be proud!

[Deweydog]

 

 

Mark Nelsen posted his usual ultra conservative stuff about this week:

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/

 

 

Here are the essentials for PDX Monday:

 

"SUNDAY-MONDAY HIGHLIGHTS

• Rainy start Sunday, then dry and partly cloudy, no sticking snow below 1,500
• During Monday AM commute, EVERYONE WILL SEE SNOW IN THE AIRas snow showers arrive before sunrise
• If you live ABOVE 1,000′, expect 1-2″ snow on the ground by mid-morning
• If you live in the higher hills around town (West Hills/Mt. Scott/Sylvan) near 1,000′, expect a trace to 1″
• At the surface (where most of us live) a dusting is possible, maybe even up to 1″ on the lawns/barkdust
• I DON’T EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS TO THE A.M. COMMUTE ON HIGHWAYS/FREEWAYS, but probably very slow as we all gawk at the snow
• SOME SNOW WILL GET ON ROADS HIGHER UP IN HILLS (for sure above 1,000′)
• Monday afternoon commute will be uneventful with temperatures in the upper 30s and scattered light showers"

Transparent bias!!!

[Phil]

It's pretty obvious to anyone who has been following your posting patterns the last several days. Whenever we get a good run you pop in to say how it's flawed and won't verify because of improper initiation of anticyclonic wavbreakers or if not that then how the CFS is showing a January toaster bath for the west.

 

You can post whatever you want and we appreciate your input, but you must be able to understand how many of us may be perceiving your tone to be rather negative.

Wow, you're truly unhinged. First, I've never once mentioned the CFS here, and second, I've been quite positive when I see runs/trends that I like. I don't know what planet you're living in but it can't be this one.

 

Sorry, but I'm not going to go about wishcasting 24/7. That's a recipe for a lot of busts.

[FroYoBro]

I guess we can't really judge its accuracy until it happens.

True, but I think that is a pretty good forecast to make for a tv met at this stage in the game. 

[Phil]

Bingo.

 

It isn't that you are biased negative, but that you are biased toward believing patterns that support your Winter forecast verifying.

Maybe so, but since I confidently forecasted a colder than average December and February in the PNW, why would I want to prove myself wrong? That just doesn't make any sense.

 

This whole thing sounds like a big conspiracy theory to me.

[Phil]

For a certain poster on this site to say something at day 9 of the models is "almost certain to happen" is ridiculous.

Haha. If I were to say something like that, I'd be laughed off the forum in disgrace.

[Phil]

Haven't you been forecasting something around mid month? Is that not the case now?

Yes, I still like the second half of December and/or early January.

 

Then another solid pattern towards the end of January, into February.

[bainbridgekid]

This is what a lot of people miss. Those big mountains and the models not accounting for them. If the topography was just flat as my high school girlfriends chest we'd have snowstorms every winter.

 

For a certain poster on this site to say something at day 9 of the models is "almost certain to happen" is ridiculous.

You misread Jim's post.

 

When the Euro was only out through day 9, he posted that based on day 9 of the Euro, day 10 would be almost certainly be arctic for us. He wasn't saying day 9 would verify.

[westcoastexpat]

Yea, much colder in the southern interior.

But topographically makes sense. - 17 C is very impressive for metro Van

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

With a little luck we can help it out

We can make this whole D**n thing work out

[westcoastexpat]

The models do consider mountainous terrain. The resolution is just crummier in the long range. But it doesn't treat the west as flat, c'mon.

[Timmy]

The hires wrf still shows an inch as least for pdx

[Deweydog]

NAM is running!!!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The models do consider mountainous terrain. The resolution is just crummier in the long range. But it doesn't treat the west as flat, c'mon.

Exactly. This gets old on here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If we all get along a sing a song i think we can make this happen.

[Phil]

Exactly. This s**t gets old on here.

I don't think anyone is denying the modeling "incorporates" topography. It's more complicated than that, on a number of levels.

[Deweydog]

Angry pre-cold snap Saturday in progress!

[Weather101]

Loooool what a forum

[Weather101]

Warning shot!!!!!!