December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

It'd be nice. The current trends are certainly encouraging. Dry or white, por favor.

 

Exactly. At this point, the way the trends are going is best case scenario. It's not wiping out the system, just slowing it down and weakening it enough have trouble clearing out the low level cold.

[Jesse]

PDX down to 35. Overachieving!!

[FroYoBro]

PDX down to 35. Overachieving!!

Might see flakes before even going to sleep!

[Deweydog]

Indeed.

 

Any updated thoughts on tomorrow morning? I'm glad to be at 300'.

Nah. If precip is heavy and organized, I can see the "plains" getting a quick inch but I still think the mesoscale stuff is overdoing it. I'd love to be wrong...

[BLI snowman]

Thursday trending nicely. Could be a lot of frozen precip that day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX down to 35. Overachieving!!

 

Clearing!

[Jesse]

Clearing!

 

Enough about us though. How are your snow prospects looking?

[stuffradio]

It's 35F currently. The precip might not arrive here until around 4 or 5 am tomorrow. On Tuesday the mets are saying I should have a low of 15 or so

[Geos]

Excited for the first low land snow event here. Down to 33 in Kirkland right now where I am at. Went up to Skykomish today which had about 2" of snow.

[Jesse]

Nah. If precip is heavy and organized, I can see the "plains" getting a quick inch but I still think the mesoscale stuff is overdoing it. I'd love to be wrong...

 

Are you foreseeing southerly flow or precip organization/intensity to be the biggest issue?

[Heavy Snow]

It looks like the models are starting to get the timing of the over-running event down. The updated run of the 00z GFS shows moisture starting in the Southern Willamette Valley around Wednesday 10pm, a few hours later than the NAM. By Thursday 4am, most if not all of PDX Metro should be seeing all snow. Then by 10am, the GFS has PDX Metro under freezing rain. It's definitely being too fast in rushing out the cold air. Should be all snow for most of PDX Metro on Thursday due to the strong cold Gorge East winds.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/078/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/084/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/090/prateptype_cat.us_nw.png

[HighlandExperience]

I'm rooting for a weaker low also. Less down sloping with a weaker low.

 

As long as we still get enough moisture I will be happy. Had enough of the dry shafting of the past two seasons. 

[Bryant]

When does WRF initialize?

[Deweydog]

Are you foreseeing southerly flow or precip organization/intensity to be the biggest issue?

The air mass itself is pretty borderline (at best) and there isn't any low level or wet bulb help to really speak of. So if we want to see any prolonged accumulations, more than an inch or so, it needs dynamic help dragging down mid level cold air (11-19-03). I really doubt we see that kind of intensity.

 

But, the models still see something so who knows...

[seattleweatherguy]

Weather.Com app says light snow shower I see nothing outside

[ShawniganLake]

It's 35F currently. The precip might not arrive here until around 4 or 5 am tomorrow. On Tuesday the mets are saying I should have a low of 15 or so

Down to 29F here now. "If we get any precip it will be snow.

[snow_wizard]

It already appears the GFS is on a good track for the second possible event.

 

it appears the cold in BC stays put all week. Even a less than impressive offshore ridge could easily drive it in.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Got to love the 00z. Might not get as big of snow thursday but might not warm up either.like the trend.

[HighlandExperience]

It already appears the GFS is on a good track for the second possible event.

 

it appears the cold in BC stays put all week. Even a less than impressive offshore ridge could easily drive it in.

 

This could be a December to remember. Just like the old days we dream about. 

[Heavy Snow]

For PDX, looks like around 4" of snow in addition to any ice from Wednesday 10pm to Thursday 10pm depending on which snow model you look at, the 10:1 ratio or Kuchera ratio. Even higher amounts up North.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/102/sn10_024h.us_nw.png

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/102/snku_024h.us_nw.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Enough about us though. How are your snow prospects looking?

 

Given I already have snow on the ground...Better than yours.

[crf450ish]

Whens DJ gonna drop in and give an analysis?

[snow_wizard]

Wow!!!

 

The blocking being shown by around day 6 is beyond ridiculous. Never seen the likes of it. Could be an epic run.

[Parksvillewx]

30F here. Cooled off quick with the clear skies. Hoping to wake up to at least some snow!

[Front Ranger]

0z looking much improved at day 7. Big -EPO ridge in Alaska is favorably tilted further east, setting up to deliver very cold air further west below it.

[Heavy Snow]

GFS ALERT!!

[Jesse]

34 here with a rain/snow mix falling. Some wet flakes mixed in.

 

I imagine that couldn't be a bad sign at this stage.

[Front Ranger]

[snow_wizard]

0z looking much improved at day 7. Big -EPO ridge in Alaska is favorably tilted further east, setting up to deliver very cold air further west below it.

I'm starting to get really excited about this. We are talking about some big players here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Whens DJ gonna drop in and give an analysis?

 

Live blogging frame by frame on facebook.

[Heavy Snow]

get_orig_img.gif

 

Arctic Blast on its way!

[snow_wizard]

get_orig_img.gif

Weather pornography!

[crf450ish]

Wow!!!

 

The blocking being shown by around day 6 is beyond ridiculous. Never seen the likes of it. Could be an epic run.

Post the map!!!!!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just hope this doesn't ruin January...

[crf450ish]

Live blogging frame by frame on facebook.

Oh.....well I dont have Fakebook. 

[EA_TTD]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120500/gfs_T850_nwus_33.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016120500/192/500h_anom.na.png

[Front Ranger]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HOLY FUCKKKKK

[snow_wizard]

34 here with a rain/snow mix falling. Some wet flakes mixed in.

 

I imagine that couldn't be a bad sign at this stage.

I sure wouldn't think so.

[snow_wizard]

HOLY FUCKKKKK

OMFG!!!

 

Wow!!