December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Randyc321]

My house is completely bare...throw that one out!!

Same here.  

[Bryant]

Not really seeing any CZ looks on any of the models this morning.......

Lol, that will not verify here. 6"+ at the whatcom/skagit border, I wish

[The Swamp]

For you guys in Puget Sound, KING EURO wants to give you a widespread 4"-6" for the over-running event.

Not in the swamp.

[Deweydog]

ECMWF says the overrunning event is a Thursday night deal for Seattle and places northward. Its dry up here almost all day. Probably better that way.

Yeah, it's markedly slower with the precip.

[MossMan]

ECMWF says the overrunning event is a Thursday night deal for Seattle and places northward. Its dry up here almost all day. Probably better that way.

I agree. Did I hear widespread 4-6"?

[luminen]

Snow changed to rain earlier today but it's snowing heavily now. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Have you considered moving closer to or actually to Enumclaw? 

Funny thing is I am only like 15min drive from there. I have actually but more expensive to live there and would be a killer for my already 1.5 drive to work. SO big determent but maybe some day.

[Front Ranger]

Man, the Euro is close. Still looks potentially snowy for those further north.

[Front Ranger]

Wonder if they actually measured accumulation at SEA? I'm sure they got some, it snowed pretty good there at 33 for a couple hours.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So did Sea-Tac record measurable snowfall today?

[Abbotsford_wx]

Pretty disappointing up here so far... maybe a quarter inch of slush, which has already mostly melted. Currently 34.5F, so it's pretty hard to build up a base. It also doesn't help that we're approaching midday... really need some outflow to drop the temp back down.

[crf450ish]

I'm incredibly happy for you all over there. Much deserved snow. Meanwhile I am sitting at 20 degrees with a dusting of graupel from yesterday afternoon. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wonder if they actually measured accumulation at SEA? I'm sure they got some, it snowed pretty good there at 33 for a couple hours.

 

We both randomly posted that at the exact same time...

[Gradient Keeper]

-Model Countdown-

Next up....

*18z NAM in 27 minutes

18z GFS in 2 hours 10 minutes

Later this evening....

00z NAM in 6 hours 27 minutes

00z GFS in 8 hours 10 minutes

00z GEM in 9 hours 10 minutes

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 27 minutes

[Front Ranger]

We both randomly posted that at the exact same time...

 

What are the odds? 

 

Definitely a good sign for something random and surprising happening tonight.

[MossMan]

Man, the Euro is close. Still looks potentially snowy for those further north.

So very slight tweakage and we could be golden?

[luvssnow_spokane]

12Z ECMWF looks awesome for King County tonight.... its going to be much more reliable with c-zone placement compared to WRF.

 

This is total snow from now through tomorrow morning.   Excluding any snow that has already fallen. 

 

Looking forward to adding a trace of snow to the zero snow I have now. Cant wait!

[MossMan]

Looking forward to adding a trace of snow the zero snow I have now. Cant wait!

We still have Thursday night to look forward to!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some wet flakes mixed in here on the river in Salem. 

[Front Ranger]

Latest HRRR has a bullseye tonight right over Vancouver.

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is the shop guard dog.

[Deweydog]

Latest HRRR has a bullseye tonight right over Vancouver.

 

hrrr.gif

It picked the wrong Vancouver.

 

F-

[North_County]

Anybody want to mention Whatcom County in their discussions? We've got Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Lower Mainland, Snohomish County south, Portland, Silver Falls all covered...

It's been snowing in Lynden (sometimes heavy) since at least 8am this morning. Accumulated to maybe 1/2 inch before briefly switching to cold rain and melting most of it away. Back to snow again as of 11:30am, but almost no accumulation.

[MossMan]

This is the shop guard dog.

Awesome!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

We still have Thursday night to look forward to!!

Yah! I Always enjoy seeing heavy rain coat the fresh fallen snow, nothing like it and beyond Wonderful -- warms my heart  

 

Seriously, I am am excited to see a little accumulation and will take what I can get with maybe a slower warm up. So Thursday is fine. I have hope in the longer range too. 

[MossMan]

FWIW, the 12z 1.33km WRF still shows a fair amount of snow through tomorrow morning. Even shows some lasting through tomorrow (highly doubt it though).

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d4/ww_msnow24.24.0000.gif

 

Tomorrow:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d4/ww_msnow24.36.0000.gif

Looks incredible over my house! One model shows me getting clobbered another one bone dry...it really will be a wait and see.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just noticed the mm5 has snow again for northern wa next week.

[Deweydog]

This is the shop guard dog.

Fierce!

[Parksvillewx]

Nothing really happened here. Some light snow but no accumulations. Sun trying to peak out now. 37F

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some wet flakes mixed in here on the river in Salem. 

 

Mostly very wet snow now.

[Front Ranger]

Looks incredible over my house! One model shows me getting clobbered another one bone dry...it really will be a wait and see.

 

I think most models are showing your area doing well. And you usually do in these situations.

 

You should be fine.

[Brennan]

What is with the huge discrepancies in forecast models for precip within 24 hours? Seems pretty ridiculous. 

 

Also, mid-long range pattern seems pretty fragile per models. Wouldn't take much for everything to slide east or for a huge GOA low to ruin everything. The low on Thursday reminds me of years past (1990's) when news stations would say SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FOR EVERYONE and Whatcom County would stay snow throughout. Even the weather channel would be wrong on the Local on the 8's.  Miss those days. Hoping we can be on the fringe and keep low level flow Northeasterly much longer than expected Friday. Of course that doesn't favor anyone else here so these comments will go unnoticed, unscrutinized, and maybe even unread! BELLINGHAM FOR THE WIN!

[MossMan]

[stuffradio]

It's been snowing/flurrying off and on all morning, but I haven't really had any changes in accumulations since this morning. It's too warm outside for additional accumulations.

[HighlandExperience]

FWIW, the 12z 1.33km WRF still shows a fair amount of snow through tomorrow morning. Even shows some lasting through tomorrow (highly doubt it though).

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d4/ww_msnow24.24.0000.gif

 

Tomorrow:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d4/ww_msnow24.36.0000.gif

Seems quite different from what the EURO is showing.

[luminen]

It's been snowing/flurrying off and on all morning, but I haven't really had any changes in accumulations since this morning. It's too warm outside for additional accumulations.

 

The temp is beginning to decrease gradually here. It was up to 35.6F around 9am and now it's down to 34.5F.

[Bryant]

What is with the huge discrepancies in forecast models for precip within 24 hours? Seems pretty ridiculous.

 

Also, mid-long range pattern seems pretty fragile per models. Wouldn't take much for everything to slide east or for a huge GOA low to ruin everything. The low on Thursday reminds me of years past (1990's) when news stations would say SNOW CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FOR EVERYONE and Whatcom County would stay snow throughout. Even the weather channel would be wrong on the Local on the 8's. Miss those days. Hoping we can be on the fringe and keep low level flow Northeasterly much longer than expected Friday. Of course that doesn't favor anyone else here so these comments will go unnoticed, unscrutinized, and maybe even unread! BELLINGHAM FOR THE WIN!

You crack me up

[Jesse]

It picked the wrong Vancouver.

 

F-

We were just up in the Hockinson vicinity. Took 139th east up the hill from 182nd. You hit a bunch of snow once you get a little elevation. But the whole area had a nice coating.

[Jesse]

We actually have a solid dusting on the grass, cars and rooftops back here at home. I hope that next blob of precip moving into Washington County drifts a little north.

[HighlandExperience]