December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

Always have January

It is officially snowing now!!

[HighlandExperience]

It will be fine later. It's taking the moisture a while to overcome the dry air.

 

Interestingly the Euro shows it freezing or below tomorrow morning, but no new snow after 12z in spite of plenty of moisture. Could end up freezing rain I suppose. On the other hand snow through early tomorrow morning wouldn't shock me either. The numbers aren't terrible if east winds continue.

Yup this east wind is killing us.

[snow_wizard]

Utterly ridiculous cold on most model runs for the 4 to 10 period and beyond.  Could be lots of fun coming up.

[snow_wizard]

Yup this east wind is killing us.

 

It could actually help us late tonight.  The thickness numbers along with east winds could keep snow going longer than anticipated.  I hate these situations because you never know what is going to happen until it actually happens.

[westcoastexpat]

Maybe my luck or bad radar detector

 

It's the Bothell effect... latest radar:

 

[Geos]

It's the Bothell effect... latest radar:

 

RadarBothell.png

 

What the heck... lol

[Kayla]

My 2-4" forecast definitely busted   So props to Dewey and Andrew on that one! Experience pays off!

 

I did get 3" up here with nearly foot deep drifts in spots so I can't complain. Had a high of 29º in the late morning and was 25º most of the day. Everything is pretty glazed and iced up now. Probably 0.2" of a glaze on top of the snow so far and still getting a mix bag of sleet and ZR falling now.

[Cold front]

The east wind is still srong here in the PDX but still switched to freezing rain after a couple or three hours.

[TT-SEA]

Snowing at Snoqualmie Pass... good sign that the dry air is shallow.  

 

It should start snowing here soon.

[westcoastexpat]

Man, that band is breaking apart at the seams. Kind of unfortunate.

 

Dry air playing a role, but don't worry too much about it.

[Front Ranger]

That's not very nice...

 

[Weather101]

It is officially snowing now!!

You lost out on January

[Weather101]

It could actually help us late tonight. The thickness numbers along with east winds could keep snow going longer than anticipated. I hate these situations because you never know what is going to happen until it actually happens.

Kind of nice having surprises tho

[Front Ranger]

My 2-4" forecast definitely busted   So props to Dewey and Andrew on that one! Experience pays off!

 

I did get 3" up here with nearly foot deep drifts in spots so I can't complain. Had a high of 29º in the late morning and was 25º most of the day. Everything is pretty glazed and iced up now. Probably 0.2" of a glaze on top of the snow so far and still getting a mix bag of sleet and ZR falling now.

 

Hey, where's my props? I want props, too! I worked hard for those props!

[BLI snowman]

Nice sleet/snow combo here again.

[Fircrest]

Here in Fircrest (West of Tacoma) it appears that a hole is opening up in the radar.  I am going nuts watching what should be snow on the radar end up being nothing!  Is this because of the dry air?  Where is the band of snow that is supposed to be coming later tonight?  It sure doesn't seem to be obvious on the satellite.

[Kayla]

Hey, where's my props? I want props, too! I worked hard for those props!

 

Haha how could I forget!!

[Front Ranger]

Man, that band is breaking apart at the seams. Kind of unfortunate.

 

Just setting the stage for the next band. Would have been way earlier than expected originally, anyway.

 

Besides, it's snowing in Puyallup. This event has already WAY overperformed.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hey Fred thanks for fixing the site could not even log in eailier

[Front Ranger]

Here in Fircrest (West of Tacoma) it appears that a hole is opening up in the radar.  I am going nuts watching what should be snow on the radar end up being nothing!  Is this because of the dry air?  Where is the band of snow that is supposed to be coming later tonight?  It sure doesn't seem to be obvious on the satellite.

 

You should see snow very soon.

[HighlandExperience]

Just setting the stage for the next band. Would have been way earlier than expected originally, anyway.

 

Besides, it's snowing in Puyallup. This event has already WAY overperformed.

 

Snow only falls in Puyallup once every 299 years. This is historic. 

[MossMan]

So much for my two years of uptime.

Yeah I started having withdrawals quickly when I couldn't get on!!

[TT-SEA]

Snow has started falling here precisely as the radar returns reached my area.   I was expecting an hour or two of total dry with radar echoes over me. 

[Fircrest]

You should see snow very soon.

Yeah, its gone from 36° to 34° so hopefully the snow will start falling soon!

[HighlandExperience]

Snow has started falling here precisely as the radar returns reached my area.   I was expecting an hour or two of total dry with radar echoes over me. 

 

light snow here

[luminen]

Dry air playing a role, but don't worry too much about it.

 

Do you still think Vancouver and Bellingham will do well with this? Bellingham still has a strong NE wind and single digit DPs.

[Front Ranger]

Snow only falls in Puyallup once every 299 years. This is historic. 

 

About the same as snow falling in Honolulu.

[MossMan]

Currently 29F! Waiting impatiently for the moisture to arrive.

[Geos]

Snow has started falling here precisely as the radar returns reached my area.   I was expecting an hour or two of total dry with radar echoes over me. 

 

Good to hear.

 

Looks like the snow has reached West Seattle now.

 

[Heavy Snow]

It looks like the new version of the GFS run in parallel is available now on Tropical Tidbits. Right now there's a big difference between it and the regular GFS on the same run. The GFS-Para seems to be slower with the system next week, about a day later but stronger and farther North. 

 

12z Regular GFS: Thursday 4am and 10am:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

 

 

 

12z GFS-Para: Friday 4am and 10am:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thanks for the props on the forecast. I know sometimes I come across as "negative," but I'm really not. I am pretty happy most people scored some snow today.

[Front Ranger]

OLM back to reporting moderate snow. .07" in the last hour, their wettest yet.

[HighlandExperience]

OLM back to reporting moderate snow. .07" in the last hour, their wettest yet.

 

Olympia will do well tonight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It looks like the new version of the GFS run in parallel is available now on Tropical Tidbits. Right now there's a big difference between it and the regular GFS on the same run. The GFS-Para seems to be slower with the system next week, about a day later but stronger and farther North. 

 

12z Regular GFS: Thursday 4am and 10am:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016120812/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

 

 

 

12z GFS-Para: Friday 4am and 10am:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_32.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2016120812/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png

 

 

 

Its colder for early next week though.

[snow_wizard]

That next band looks like a winner to me. It has already managed to snow lightly here so I think that will rock.

[CTA]

About 3" at my house (about 2 miles from OLM). Temp 30.1, DP 29.

[luminen]

Pics plz

[seattleweatherguy]

Olympia reports 3.8. No snow here yet

[Front Ranger]

0z hi-res NAM keeps Seattle area snow until around 5 am. Probably a switchover to freezing rain/sleet a couple hours earlier in the swamp.

[bainbridgekid]

About 3" at my house (about 2 miles from OLM). Temp 30.1, DP 29.

You could easily end up with 5-6" in my opinion.

 

Olympia is extremely underrated when it comes to snow.