December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Making another run at 50 at SEA.

PDX making a run at 36!

[Front Ranger]

 

It is sort of interesting to say you so dearly miss a slightly lower sun angle.    Fred is more sensitive to sun angle than maybe anyone.   His own fetish in a forum full of fetishes.      

 

I'm with Fred. Lower sun angles make it feel just a bit more wintry.

[liquidsnow]

So I'm sensing that it would be preferred if the 12z Euro were to verify over the 18z GFS since the Euro is colder starting Friday late afternoon?

Hell yeah. I would rather have a frosty sunny weekend over a damp dreary weekend.

[luvssnow_spokane]

PDX making a run at 36!

52 in the swamp...

[TT-SEA]

I'm with Fred. Lower sun angles make it feel just a bit more wintry.

 

 

Of course.

[Phil]

Its that different between a 19 and 26 degree sun angle?

 

A 26-degree sun angle is not Cabo.

 

We are back to that level in a few weeks.

 

You talk about our low sun angle in October being so great and that is higher than 26 degrees.

I noticed the difference while up north a few years back. It is noticeable to most people I think.

 

I also notice the difference even more during summer, when our sun angle reaches 75 degrees. Doesn't take long for my skin to torch at that point.

[Jesse]

52 in the swamp...

Isn't Bonney Lake like 400'-500' in elevation?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Isn't Bonney Lake like 400'-500' in elevation?

Yes... 550 at my place...  Swamp Highlands. 

[HighlandExperience]

[Deweydog]

Models are gonna the bed for a few days with that cutoff low for later next week.  Good times.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Models are gonna s**t the bed for a few days with that cutoff low for later next week.  Good times.  

It is a thing of beauty! It's really going to do wonders for the spring flowers and cherry blossoms.. Specially with the sun angles improving. Good times. 

[Bryant]

I still like early-mid January

[Deweydog]

I still like early-mid January

 

Like Buzz says:  

 

To the 20th and beyond!!!

[Bryant]

Like Buzz says:

 

To the 20th and beyond!!!

Something like that

[luvssnow_spokane]

Like Buzz says:  

 

To the 20th and beyond!!!

Thank goodness because "infinity" seems so far away. 

[Deweydog]

Thank goodness because "infinity" seems so far away. 

 

30 days and counting.  You can go 30 days without eating and still live, theoretically.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Jim is going to shitt his pants if we see no snow at all with the tract of the low.

[Front Ranger]

Models are gonna s**t the bed for a few days with that cutoff low for later next week.  Good times.  

 

You mean, they're going to continue shitting the bed?

[Jesse]

Yes... 550 at my place... Swamp Highlands.

Probably higher in elevation than the majortity of the posters here.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Probably higher in elevation than the majortity of the posters here.

Except for Tim, he is at like 7500 ft in his snowy heaven.  

[ShawniganLake]

Probably higher in elevation than the majortity of the posters here.

Even higher in elevation than me.

 

42 snow melting degrees here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Probably higher in elevation than the majortity of the posters here.

True, Sadly due to our location it does not equate to more snow most of the time. Many factors for this ... But i'll will admit it is pretty up here.   Meaningless for getting the goods though in the 10 years I have lived here. 

[TT-SEA]

Even higher in elevation than me.

 

42 snow melting degrees here.

 

You still have snow?  

 

I was thinking of going out and mowing my grass shorter today so I have a better chance of a completely snow-covered ground for Christmas.  

 

I posted before/after pics a couple pages back.    You should post a pic.  

[Jesse]

True, Sadly due to our location it does not equate to more snow most of the time. Many factors for

this ... But i will admit it is pretty up here.

Yeah, I figure it isn't the precinct of hell you make it out to be.

[ShawniganLake]

You still have snow?

 

I was thinking of going out and mowing my grass shorter today so I have a better chance of a completely snow-covered ground for Christmas.

 

I posted before/after pics a couple pages back. You should post a pic.

2-4" depending on sun exposure. It was very dense so it held up through yesterday's raging SW wind. Might hold on for Christmas if it freezes solid again. Looks pretty old now, needs a freshening up. A few flurries would suffice.

[Timmy]

You still have snow?  

 

I was thinking of going out and mowing my grass shorter today so I have a better chance of a completely snow-covered ground for Christmas.  

 

I posted before/after pics a couple pages back.    You should post a pic.  

I have snow in the shade and plowed areas.

[Deweydog]

You mean, they're going to continue shitting the bed?

They've been okayish since they figured out how to kill off the blocking. The Friday surface low has just been entertainment.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Yeah, I figure it isn't the precinct of hell you make it out to be.

Yeah it is not that bad, It's just the snowless environment, swamp gas from the valley, and the Puyallup neighbors... PuyallupJohn is the one in the middle. He is a real blood sucker.

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

According the Portland AFD there is a fly in the ointment.

[ShawniganLake]

Some before pics from my neighbourhood. Not up for taking after pics as I just had hernia surgery this morning.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Some before pics from my neighbourhood. Not up for taking after pics as I just had hernia surgery this morning.

IMG_0427.JPGIMG_0428.JPGIMG_0429.JPG

"sit up" and take some more pictures damit!     Super pretty and I am totally jealous. I have not seen snow like that here since 2008.

[MossMan]

Just read a cool article about the "mother of all convergence zones" that occurred back on December 18, 1990 and dropped a foot of snow in Seattle, with thundersnow to boot.

 

That would have been fun! 

 

http://www.seattleweatherblog.com/snow/the-mother-of-all-convergence-zones/

That was something else for sure! I wish that I still had the local news coverage of that day and night...thousands of people parking their cars on I-5 and walking home...it was insanity! It mostly missed my house as it raged from south Snohomish Co thru Seattle...My area got nuked a few days later so I was okay with it. Mets still had great difficulty forecasting the PSCZ back then.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

PNW AFD....

 

The most difficult forecast period continues to be Friday through

Saturday. Model solutions are slowly converging, but still differ
enough with the precip coverage and amount, and how cold the low
level air mass ends up for very much confidence. The ECMWF and
Canadian seem to be in one camp and the GFS and NAM in another. The
GFS/NAM appear to scoop up the southern remnants of Thursdays weak
front and consolidate the moisture with a shortwave coming around
the base of the trough. The ECMWF/Canadian appear to keep the old
frontal moisture separate and don`t bring that much moisture
northward from Oregon. The lower air mass over W WA gets colder with
time as the large trough approaches and some cold air leaks
southward from the Fraser River Valley. 1000mb-850mb thicknesses get
below 1300 meters Friday night and early Saturday morning which is
one parameter that points to snow. Snow levels are expected to lower
to around 500 feet or lower Friday night so any light precipitation
that falls should be snow. Fortunately, there doesn`t appear to be
any good sources of lift over the area (yes we hate snow!). At this point the best guess
is that the most likely areas for snow accumulation will be over the
southwest interior and the lowlands east of Puget Sound possibly as
far north as Everett. Accumulations should be very light, ranging
from zero to about an inch. Confidence is still quite low.

The upper level trough axis will be over W WA Saturday morning and
will slowly shift to the east, enough to allow some drier northerly
flow from an offshore high amplitude upper level ridge to spread
over the coast. Kam

[The Swamp]

Yeah it is not that bad, It's just the snowless environment, swamp gas from the valley, and the Puyallup neighbors... PuyallupJohn is the one in the middle. He is a real blood sucker.

 

Hell_Forest.jpg

Part of our snowless existence could be blamed on my diet that leads to increased flatulance. Those gasses can really kill anything, including a good snow storm.

[Bryant]

PNW AFD....

 

 

I actually had to go and look to see if the bolded was written by them lol

[Bryant]

Some before pics from my neighbourhood. Not up for taking after pics as I just had hernia surgery this morning.

IMG_0427.JPG

Love the 1st picture. Very jealous

[Jesse]

9th sub-40 day at PDX this month so far. Nearly one whole round of warning shots.

[Bryant]

Right on time...

 

http://i.imgur.com/LSx8fJqh.jpg

[snow_wizard]

Not looking good for the snow threat late in the week. The low tracks less favorably to advect cold air before the precip really sets in. Just doesn't have the right look. There could be a little bit here and there, but anything great is looking doubtful.

 

The end of the month continues to have good potential according the ECMWF suite of models. The 12z GFs ensemble was good too.

[snow_wizard]

Some before pics from my neighbourhood. Not up for taking after pics as I just had hernia surgery this morning.

IMG_0427.JPGIMG_0428.JPGIMG_0429.JPG

That's not from today is it?

 

I had hernia surgery a few years ago. Not fun.