December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Weather101]

Anyone who had a problem with what I said last night #1 I was drunk and #2 it wasn't even about 99% of the members on here since most our good. It's the 0.1% who complain a lot when the models still look good.. Maybe I have lower standards then the rest of you guys.

[Jesse]

Very heavy snowfall here.

It seems like it has been snowing somewhere in the western lowlands more often than not the last three weeks. I love it!

[van city]

I have a solid snow cover since the beginning of December.

[Jesse]

Anyone who had a problem with what I said last night #1 I was drunk and #2 it wasn't even about 99% of the members on here since most our good. It's the 0.1% who complain a lot when the models still look good.. Maybe I have lower standards then the rest of you guys.

These inflammatory posts are worse than the ones you are complaining about.

[Guest Sounder]

I have noticed a higher percentage of people with an unusually high interest in weather are also baseball fans. I think because statistics are such a big part of both, at least that is what has driven the interest for me since I was six years old.

Autism is why.

[Heavy Snow]

12z EURO is cold to start the New Year. Temps for the first 4 days: Models starting to come into an agreement of a possible Arctic Blast.

 

Vancouver BC: 38/36 - 30/25 - 27/23 - 26/18

Spokane: 24/17 - 12/4 - 9/2 - -6/-13

Yakima: 28/15 - 17/0 - 16/-4 - 10/-7

Seattle: 35/33 - 31/21 - 30/17 - 28/15

Pendleton: 32/26 - 19/17 - 12/2 - 8/-5

The Dalles: 31-23 - 21/16 - 15/5 - 10/2

Portland: 40/28 - 32/26 - 28/18 - 26/15

Salem: 42/30 - 33/25 - 29/16 - 28/14

Eugene: 42/35 - 33/27 - 30/16 - 27/12

Bend: 29/14 - 14/11 - 4/-5 - 2/-11

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like I am in for another afternoon of 33-34F rain. I cannot remember the last winter when parts of metro Vancouver have consistently owned my location in the snowfall department.

[IbrChris]

Autism is why.

Yeah Einstein probably was autistic as well. Couldn't figure out how to dress or groom himself yet he discovered the theory of relativity and basically single-handedly developed the quantum branch of physics.

[snow_wizard]

The Euro ensemble is much colder on this run. It also shows a low dropping down with the initial invasion of cold air on New Years. Exciting times right now!

[snow_wizard]

Looks like I am in for another afternoon of 33-34F rain. I cannot remember the last winter when parts of metro Vancouver have consistently owned my location in the snowfall department.

It has to be seepage form the Fraser that is helping Vancouver.

[Weather101]

Snow here. Couple inches.

[van city]

Looks like I am in for another afternoon of 33-34F rain. I cannot remember the last winter when parts of metro Vancouver have consistently owned my location in the snowfall department.

I have had a solid 8 inches with all the melting in between since the beginning of December and it's dumping again.

[Weather101]

[snow_wizard]

It still amazes me how many of our best winters really get going within a few days of New Years. Just uncanny.

 

1889-90

1906-07

1908-09

1915-16

1936-37

1948-49

1949-50

1968-69

1971-72 (mainly an Olympia north winter)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I have no idea what happened last night so its all good playa.

[snow_wizard]

I have had a solid 8 inches with all the melting in between since the beginning of December and it's dumping again.

That stuff makes a good hard to melt base. You could have snow on the ground for a long time in spite of some inevitable rain coming up.

[Weather101]

That stuff makes a good hard to melt base. You could have snow on the ground for a long time in spite of some inevitable rain coming up.

Have you seen any snow yet this year? You should within the next week

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It still amazes me how many of our best winters really get going within a few days of New Years. Just uncanny.

 

1889-90

1906-07

1908-09

1915-16

1936-37

1948-49

1949-50

1968-69

1971-72 (mainly an Olympia north winter)

 

Well it is the heart of winter so it really isn't that surprising. 

[snow_wizard]

Have you seen any snow yet this year? You should within the next week

It has snowed on about 8 different days and amounted to a grand total of an inch. Also had 0.2" of ice one day. Arctic fronts usually treat this area well so I'm hopeful for New Years.

[snow_wizard]

Well it is the heart of winter so it really isn't that surprising.

It's just the biggest ones normally start so close to that specific day and in many cases right on it. You can also add 2003-04 for that matter.

[MossMan]

Pattern sets up upstream over the GOA/AK in just 72-84 hours. That's not far away

NAM territory! 

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!

 

The ECMWF ensemble is solidly cold for the entire run...right through day 15. Looks like things get more favorable for moisture and cold together later in the run.

[WinterWx]

It has snowed on about 8 different days and amounted to a grand total of an inch. Also had 0.2" of ice one day. Arctic fronts usually treat this area well so I'm hopeful for New Years.

I feel your pain.  My location (west seattle) has received about 1/2 inch of slushy snow.  Hope the models keep trending in the right direction.

[snow_wizard]

I am just dying to see what the numbers are going to be with this. Some chance of the coldest month in about 50 years. Still a lot that could prevent that, but the chance is there at this point. January is historically the month that can deliver LONG cold waves.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's just the biggest ones normally start so close to that specific day and in many cases right on it. You can also add 2003-04 for that matter.

 

We are pulling off about as cold as a December as could be expected without any kind of major regional blast. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am just dying to see what the numbers are going to be with this. Some chance of the coldest month in about 50 years. Still a lot that could prevent that, but the chance is there at this point. January is historically the month that can deliver LONG cold waves.

 

There are a couple months in the past 50 years that would be hard to beat. 

[snow_wizard]

I feel your pain.  My location (west seattle) has received about 1/2 inch of slushy snow.  Hope the models keep trending in the right direction.

One thing about this area is it can do well when it really counts...going into deep Arctic cold and long cold periods. We have done horribly so far this winter, but that could easily change.

[Heavy Snow]

Holy crap!

 

The ECMWF ensemble is solidly cold for the entire run...right through day 15. Looks like things get more favorable for moisture and cold together later in the run.

 

[snow_wizard]

We are pulling off about as cold as a December as could be expected without any kind of major regional blast.

Yeah....this is an oddball. Kind of a 1971 or 1889 type December. Really hard to compare it to many.

[snow_wizard]

There are a couple months in the past 50 years that would be hard to beat.

I'm just talking monthly averages. I think the lowest SEA has had since Jan 1969 was 34 point something in January 1980. There are many Januaries that beat any cold December average.

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm just talking monthly averages. I think the lowest SEA has had since Jan 1969 was 34 point something in January 1980. There are many Januaries that beat any cold December average.

 

That is pretty sad, I think the mean at SLE in January 1979 was around 31. I think something like that would be tough to beat. 

[HighlandExperience]

It has snowed on about 8 different days and amounted to a grand total of an inch. Also had 0.2" of ice one day. Arctic fronts usually treat this area well so I'm hopeful for New Years.

Considering how cold December has been our snow totals are pathetic on the east side. The past three weeks makes it feel like everyone is going to keep scoring except for us.

[Phil]

What's crazy is, not only does the d10-15 EPS have the entire North American continent below average, but there's another huge area of below average temperatures across Eurasia.

 

Blue everywhere.

[MossMan]

One thing about this area is it can do well when it really counts...going into deep Arctic cold and long cold periods. We have done horribly so far this winter, but that could easily change.

I have a feeling we are about to embark on a Jimtasktic January...one that will meet your seal of approval! This is truly shaping up like an old fashioned winter....like the 80's (since I wasn't alive pre 1976) 

[HighlandExperience]

[BLI snowman]

There are a couple months in the past 50 years that would be hard to beat. 

 

Another sub-32 monthy mean would be a nice accomplishment for my area and many others. We've come close a number of times (Vancouver had 32.2 in December 1985) but still have not seen a true subfreezing month since January 1979.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another sub-32 monthy mean would be a nice accomplishment for my area and many others. We've come close a number of times (Vancouver had 32.2 in December 1985) but still have not seen a true subfreezing month since January 1979.

 

I agree. I just think it will be hard to pull off and unlikely even given the current modeled pattern. 

[Weather101]

I have no idea what happened last night so its all good playa.

Thanks bro.

[Deweydog]

Thoughts on February given the model trends?