snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 This place is comedy I think everyone on here needs medication to tell you the truth. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I am not saying this won't happen, just saying that we can't just discount models because we don't like what they say.Yes we can...and we will! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFS It mostly around day 4 or 5 when we are dealing with offshore ridging. It usually sees it well beyond that and before that, but anything that happens in that time frame is often warm biased. I've mentioned it many times on here. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Cle Elum looks cool 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I think everyone on here needs medication to tell you the truth. 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 If I remember right the models had a general handle on the pattern in the short range, but ended up with horrible consistency and continuity issues along with large differences when the 'event' got within 24-72 hours. Thogh I think that was mainly due to such marginal conditions, for the most part.Details are almost always impossible to pinpoint. General ideas are a given. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFSTell yourself the GFS is cold biased... does that help? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFSYeah, this has been a talking point the last few years but I've never really seen it worth being called out as an Achilles heel. The biggest difference with the GFS to me has been with regard to terrain. It's no longer completely off the mark 3-7 days out with continental air advancement south and west. It's less erratic, so maybe people were just used to what was an inevitable slowing/warming within 72 hours or so. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I hope to God it isn't another January with a ridge parked over us. That does seems to be a very stable pattern though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFS ensemble mean has everything shifted west of the operational in the 6 to 10 day period. No real shock there. We're going to be fine. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yeah, this has been a talking point the last few years but I've never really seen it worth being called out as an Achilles heel. The biggest difference with the GFS to me has been with regard to terrain. It's no longer completely off the mark 3-7 days out with continental air advancement south and west. It's less erratic, so maybe people were just used to what was an inevitable slowing/warming within 72 hours or so.Yeah I have heard the chatter just haven't noticed it myself. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Cle Elum looks cool I figured they would have a nice bunch of snow there. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I find it interesting people, not just on here, that tend to be optimistic to a fault are the ones telling everyone to calm down. Then again I guess it makes sense... I would just have to believe they are sitting at thier computers sweating bullets until the next positive (or something they can spin positive) data comes out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I find it interesting people, not just on here, that tend to be optimistic to a fault are the ones telling everyone to calm down. Then again I guess it makes sense... I would just have to believe they are sitting at thier computers sweating bullets until the next positive (or something they can spin positive) data comes out.Nah, you're just being extra negative 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I have never noticed a warm bias on the GFSThat warm bias has become a buzzword like "polar vortex" did a couple years ago (to the mainstream though). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Nah, you're just being extra negative hey I would gladly admit that if it turns out to be true. But currently, the trend is not our friend if you like highs below freezing, and copious amounts of snow potential. Still time for things to turn around, or get worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The WRF is showing snow for the East Puget Sound Lowlands on Sunday. 1 to 2 inches for most. It usually underdoes precip in these cases. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFS ensemble mean has everything shifted west of the operational in the 6 to 10 day period. No real shock there. We're going to be fine.May come down to 100 miles or so of longitude which could determine whether we have a great event or merely a run-of-the-mill thing. It wouldn't take a huge shift on the GFS to see the former, but the larger scale trend is concerning at this point. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFS ensemble mean has everything shifted west of the operational in the 6 to 10 day period. No real shock there. We're going to be fine.Yeah, GEFS Surface Temp/850mb anomaly day 6-11 certainly colder than 18z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 hey I would gladly admit that if it turns out to be true. But currently, the trend is not our friend if you like highs below freezing, and copious amounts of snow potential. Still time for things to turn around, or get worse. You're only basing this on one model. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Yeah, GEFS Surface Temp/850mb anomaly day 6-11 certainly colder than 18z. That combined with the rock solid Euro ensemble...I'm good. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 That warm bias has become a buzzword like "polar vortex" did a couple years ago (to the mainstream though).I would love to see the Polar Vortex perched over the PNW one of these days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 hey I would gladly admit that if it turns out to be true. But currently, the trend is not our friend if you like highs below freezing, and copious amounts of snow potential. Still time for things to turn around, or get worse.Earlier your main focus was on the worse though. Felt like you and Andrew were texting each other the next negative thing you were going to say 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Earlier your main focus was on the worse though. Felt like you and Andrew were texting each other the next negative thing you were going to say It makes zero sense. Usually everyone is so quick to point out what an awful model the GFS is when it shows something good. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I don't know what would be more beneficial at this point, better model runs or better dominion and control over how people feel about model runs? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Earlier your main focus was on the worse though. Felt like you and Andrew were texting each other the next negative thing you were going to say I guess it's my tendency to play devils advocate when people are being overly optimistic or unrealistic. I like to bring people down to earth, sorry if that comes off as negative but it is a part of opinionated discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 It makes zero sense. Usually everyone is so quick to point out what an awful model the GFS is when it shows something good. it makes complete sense when the same people eager to throw out the gfs are the ones eager to hold on to it when it is the only model showing something good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I don't know what would be more beneficial at this point, better model runs or better dominion and control over how people feel about model runs?If the former comes together, then the latter should as well. At least you'd hope. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Due to the waffling GFS runs I've had to post this in my FB group. Lol If for some unforeseen reason the next 2 days the models turn unfavorable, it is what it is. It happens. Don't let it get to you or your emotions. Model riding is one thing, and most of us are doing it, but the constant weenie fests, freaking out, being negative, it's all so very annoying and not enjoyable. Of course we all want Cold/Snow and it would be a bummer if this did not pan out. If you get upset or emotionally distressed over model riding I suggest you go hug a loved one, even if it's a stuffed animal. It'll be okay, or just simply take a break. Thank you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I guess it's my tendency to play devils advocate when people are being overly optimistic or unrealistic. I like to bring people down to earth, sorry if that comes off as negative but it is a part of opinionated discussion. You have to keep in mind the CPC just today made about the coldest 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks I've ever seen for this area. They aren't wish casting. If you'll recall I made the call for a New Years cold wave days ago. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 The GFS isn't even bad. EDIT: At least in the believable range. I'm really not worried about it.There is a pattern with three runs in a row now of shoving that ridge to close. It is something that historically happens more than the epic event you want. People have a right to be concerned. Not saying it will happen but I get it. Trending the wrong way feels ominous because history shows us that often those little incremental runs we call outliers or waffling end up being the trend setters we try to ignore. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chopper 918 Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Rob, what's your FB group called and is it open? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Ensemble looks okay, slightly improved. Crisis averted. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 I find it interesting people, not just on here, that tend to be optimistic to a fault are the ones telling everyone to calm down. Then again I guess it makes sense... I would just have to believe they are sitting at thier computers sweating bullets until the next positive (or something they can spin positive) data comes out.And the ones who have had legendary meltdowns. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Rob, what's your FB group called and is it open?Pdx wx analysis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Rob, what's your FB group called and is it open?PDX WX Analysis https://www.facebook.com/groups/pdx.wx.analysis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 There is a pattern with three runs in a row now of shoving that ridge to close. It is something that historically happens more than the epic event you want. People have a right to be concerned. Not saying it will happen but I get it. Trending the wrong way. On one model. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Jim will decide when/if it's okay to freak the **** out. Until then take it out on your spouse/significant other/dog. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 28, 2016 Report Share Posted December 28, 2016 Pdx wx analysisAH my bad, I hadn't seen you already posted it. Thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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