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December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

stuffradio

By stuffradio
in West of the Rockies

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MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Been a emotional day.. First time in 27 years i went and picked a Christmas tree without my woman but me and my son made the best of it and had a good time. Its been a real test as a father dealing wi

jaya
jaya

Well, I don't have access to everything that I'd like to look at. With that said, tonight will be tricky with the strong offshore flow. I've seen it go both ways. In one case in 2014 I believe, models

Gradient Keeper
Gradient Keeper

I wish you all a Merry Christmas. I hope you can find joy and happiness. Appreciate the ones you have with you during this Holiday season.   http://i.imgur.com/fhWgu21.jpg

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snow drift Grand Master

snow drift

Posted
Posted

I know. I just want my D**n negative numbers for low temps. If I have to drive to Sherman pass or Republic to get my -20F fix, I will. I want my kids to see hot water turn to snow :lol: .

I've experienced lows less than -20f a few times. The last time was in Jan 04. I was near Deer Park when they notched a low of -28f. Some cities nearby like Springdale were unofficialy less than -30f. Spokane had a low that morning of -22f, which was not a record for the date. In Dec 08 Spokane dropped to -18f.

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SilverFallsAndrew Grand Master

SilverFallsAndrew

Posted
Posted

Mark Nelsen says he thinks East Valley and Cascade foothill locations could do pretty well with snow Sunday morning because of strong orographic lift and westerly flow ahead of the arctic front. 

 

Notice how far west the snow is pushed down into the foothills and even far eastern Willamette Valley!  That’s due to the strong westerly flow pushing up against the west slopes of the Cascades.  It’s only noticeable if you regularly look at these maps.  This says significant snow could fall even down to or below 1,000′ on the east side of the Willamette Valley.  For sure the hills will get a dusting, but in this pattern I think significant snow down on the valley floor is unlikely.  But if you live in Sandy, Estacada, Sublimity, Mill City, Sweet Home etc…?  You could see a few inches of snow on the ground by Sunday AM or midday.  After that ALL models agree we dry out quickly as a the dry arctic airmass moves in.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

Holy frozen polar bear ,,,,  COLDEST RUN YET!!!

 

Tuesday afternoon

 

attachicon.gifgfs_T850_nwus_21.png

FYI 00z Tuesday is 4 PM Monday.

 

Definitely noticeably colder than previous runs the first half of next week.

Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

For PDX, looks like -14c at 850mb at hour 120 compared to -12c on the 18z. Definitely chillier.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Kayla Grand Master

Kayla

Posted
Posted

Mark Nelsen says he thinks East Valley and Cascade foothill locations could do pretty well with snow Sunday morning because of strong orographic lift and westerly flow ahead of the arctic front. 

 

I think you'll do well on Sunday. Timmy and I not so much. 

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Yep... This run looks promising for the swamp.   :D  :)  :wub:

 

Dream scenario for us with an Arctic front.  Love seeing that surface low center over the southern half of Eastern WA.  I also like seeing how squashed the area of low pressure is.   We do well in cases like this.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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bainbridgekid Veteran

bainbridgekid

Posted
Posted

***SLIGHT*** differences on this run compared to last night's 00z.

850's of -14 on Monday compared to about -7 on last night's. Practically the same.  :lol:

 

Definitely nice to see.

 

It's probably mostly in comparison to the raging cold bias it used to have, but there does seem like there may be something to the GFS warm bias around days 4-5.

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

Dream scenario for us with an Arctic front.  Love seeing that surface low center over the southern half of Eastern WA.  I also like seeing how squashed the area of low pressure is.   We do well in cases like this.

100% agree! those are dream scenarios for us. :)

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

100% agree! those are dream scenarios for us. :)

 

I can't believe we can actually have fair confidence we will have snow going into this event.  If tonight's Euro is the same I will be pretty confident.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

850's are only about 6 degrees colder on Monday.  :lol:

 

Definitely nice to see.

 

It's probably mostly in comparison to the raging cold bias it used to have, but there does seem like there may be something to the GFS warm bias around days 4-5.

 

Yup.  I think the crucial moment in the evolution of this was right in  the warm bias window last night.  It just threw the whole run off.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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luvssnow_spokane Community Regular

luvssnow_spokane

Posted
Posted

I can't believe we can actually have fair confidence we will have snow going into this event.  If tonight's Euro is the same I will be pretty confident.

I am ACTUALLY about 75% confident now... the most I have been in a very, very long time. I just wanna hug someone... JESSE?!

My Weather Station

https://tempestwx.com/station/61434

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

That little guy? Don't worry about that little guy...

 

I'm lost. :o

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

I am ACTUALLY about 75% confident now... the most I have been in a very, very long time. I just wanna hug someone... JESSE?!

 

This might call for champagne and a nice Cuban cigar.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Timmy Supercell Grand Master

Timmy Supercell

Posted
Posted

Dewey and everyone else over 40 might get it...

 

Fantasy island? lol

 

I'm only turning 24 but I still was exposed to many things.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17
Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 21
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7
5/8, 

Severe storms: 2

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

About the most beautiful and stable block you can ever hope for around day 8.

 

 

post-222-0-70087200-1482986530_thumb.png

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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snow_wizard Grand Master

snow_wizard

Posted
Posted

Block destroyer?

 

 

I think the block is almost like a black hole.  It just sucks everything into it and adds to its size.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 50

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Heavy Snow Newbie

Heavy Snow

Posted
Posted

Mark Nelsen says he thinks East Valley and Cascade foothill locations could do pretty well with snow Sunday morning because of strong orographic lift and westerly flow ahead of the arctic front. 

 

Notice how far west the snow is pushed down into the foothills and even far eastern Willamette Valley!  That’s due to the strong westerly flow pushing up against the west slopes of the Cascades.  It’s only noticeable if you regularly look at these maps.  This says significant snow could fall even down to or below 1,000′ on the east side of the Willamette Valley.  For sure the hills will get a dusting, but in this pattern I think significant snow down on the valley floor is unlikely.  But if you live in Sandy, Estacada, Sublimity, Mill City, Sweet Home etc…?  You could see a few inches of snow on the ground by Sunday AM or midday.  After that ALL models agree we dry out quickly as a the dry arctic airmass moves in.

 

Yeah I've noticed this on the maps as well. I live at 500 feet in Gresham, so maybe I can get some good accumulations.

f3e7e3bf2f29b1e9cdb92d7e39e709f1.jpg

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