December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[kokaneekidz]

Prediction: Model camps in coming days are going to swing to two different solutions.

1) Blocking sets up more favorably 160 W, multiple blasts

2) Blocking sets up 160-165 W, base pinched off/undercut, southern stream moisture blasts in.

That was evident in the 00z gfs out 10 days. There is a struggle brewing and the sweet spot will need a yard stick to measure the goods.

[pscz1140]

Seems pretty boring to have Tim and Andrew sitting with solid snow cover for 10 days with highs in the 20s across the entire region for several of those days. 

 

Not the outcome I want.     True lowland snow is much more fun.  

 

So you're referring to yourself in the third person now? This place has gone full loco tonight.

[BLI snowman]

Nice battle set up looming for next weekend and beyond on the Euro. 

 

Lots of car abandonment potential!

[Gradient Keeper]

Euro says PDX doesn't get out of the 20's after Monday through the end of the run. Capped off by a nice little 2-4" snow event at day 8 then followed by a big snowstorm at the end of the run. 

Hell Yeah. Day 10 renewed backdoor blast too. Nice 991mb low off the southern Oregon Coast. This is setting up perfect IF this solution plays out. One thing seems a bit more certain to me. This may be quickly turning into a much longer prolonged cold spell.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016123000/ecmwf_T850_nwus_11.png

[BLI snowman]

So you're referring to yourself in the third person now? This place has gone full loco tonight.

 

To be fair there are at least three Tims on this forum that we know of.

 

And they all get more snow than the average poster.

 

I think I'm going to change my name!

[Deweydog]

Warm nose bleeding all over my location.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice battle set up looming for next weekend and beyond on the Euro. 

 

Lots of car abandonment potential!

Yep. Incredible potential ahead

[Heavy Snow]

http://www.totalprosports.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/b5CMYo.gif

[Jesse]

Somebody pinch me.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Wonder if this will help:http://www.spellsofmagic.com/spells/weather_spells/snow_storm_spells/page.html

[Gradient Keeper]

Somebody pinch me.

We could be below 30 degrees at PDX for 7-10 days. Seems possible.

[kokaneekidz]

Wonder if this will help:http://www.spellsofmagic.com/spells/weather_spells/snow_storm_spells/page.html

Thanks Harry Potter, say hi to Hermione for me. Thx

[MossMan]

Where the hell is Jim?

[GHweatherChris]

Nice snow event next weekend per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

I don't live in Oregon, next....

[TT-SEA]

To be fair there are at least three Tims on this forum that we know of.

 

And they all get more snow than the average poster.

 

I think I'm going to change my name!

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. Day 10 Euro 850mb -14c The Dalles. We're not thawing for 7+ days period.

[Deweydog]

Think about this...

 

A week from now no one will remember or care what tonight's 00z models showed.

[kokaneekidz]

Slight improvement on 00z GEFS plumes for KSEA.

They all show something, which is nice. Also a small spread which is odd but hey maybe they all drank the same koolaid.

[Gradient Keeper]

This is exciting stuff, the fact

1) We're ACTUALLY seeing an Arctic Blast in January

2) We have very REAL/Likely potential at serious Winter weather ahead

 

3) Where the hell is Jim !

[van city]

http://www.totalprosports.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/b5CMYo.gif

[snow_wizard]

My thoughts for the night.

 

1. Central Puget Sound sees widespread 1 to 3 inch accumulations New Year's Eve with some place getting 4 or 5 inches. I think the operational model has a better handle on the precip than the WRF.

 

2. Temperature forecasts for early next week will need to be pruned by about 5 degrees. A couple of days should fail to reach 30...especially if there is snow on the ground.

 

3. The ensembles continue to look outstanding deep into week 2. This is especially true on the latest GEM ensemble which is incredible tonight.

 

4. Still a high chance of a major snow event in the 10 to 15 day period.

[Gradient Keeper]

My thoughts for the night.

 

1. Central Puget Sound sees widespread 1 to 3 inch accumulations New Year's Eve with some place getting 4 or 5 inches. I think the operational model has a better handle on the precip than the WRF.

 

2. Temperature forecasts for early next week will need to be pruned by about 5 degrees. A couple of days should fail to reach 30...especially if there is snow on the ground.

 

3. The ensembles continue to look outstanding deep into week 2. This is especially true on the latest GEM ensemble which is incredible tonight.

 

4. Still a high chance of a major snow event in the 10 to 15 day period.

Nice to see you around from your hibernation earlier. Yeah phenomenal potential ahead.

[Jesse]

We could be below 30 degrees at PDX for 7-10 days. Seems possible.

If that happens I swear to god I will never ***** about a long heatwave ever again.

[snow_wizard]

I like seeing the second dip showing up on the GFS ensemble again. That one takes us back down to -10 or -11. Going to be a ridiculously cold first week of January.

[Gradient Keeper]

If that happens I swear to god I will never ***** about a long heatwave ever again.

I would say we have a 85% chance of that occurring.

[BLI snowman]

If that happens I swear to god I will never ***** about a long heatwave ever again.

 

I will hold you to that next September.

[Jesse]

I would say we have a 85% chance of that occurring.

Me keeping my word or the actual stretch of 20s?

[Perturbed Member]

I don't live in Oregon, next....

 

Vancouver, WA isn't in Oregon. 

[ShawniganLake]

If that happens I swear to god I will never ***** about a long heatwave ever again.

I am going to hold you to this.

 

I noticed earlier today that some of the smaller lakes are still frozen here but with lots of rain water sitting on top. They should freeze pretty solidly next week.

[snow_wizard]

To me it almost looks like the ECMWF is back to it's old trick of putting too much emphasis on the southern branch / cutoff low again in the day 9 to day 10 period. As you will remember it (and to a lesser extent the GFS) showed that about a week ago for New Years / early next week also. Ensembles are the way to go right now beyond day 7.

[MossMan]

If that happens I swear to god I will never ***** about a long heatwave ever again.

WOW this is huge!!

[GHweatherChris]

Vancouver, WA isn't in Oregon.

May as well be, my backyard is nowhere near there, and they are forecasted by the Portland NWS to top it off.

[Heavy Snow]

[Timmy Supercell]

this feels more Dec 13' than November 2010

 

So, historic Winter temperatures down here 2 times within 3 years? Sounds good!

[MossMan]

Perfect!!

[Dave]

Nice snow event next weekend per the 00Z ECMWF...

 

LOL at that tiny white hole that is probably right over my house.  Awesome!

[Front Ranger]

My thoughts for the night.

 

1. Central Puget Sound sees widespread 1 to 3 inch accumulations New Year's Eve with some place getting 4 or 5 inches. I think the operational model has a better handle on the precip than the WRF.

 

2. Temperature forecasts for early next week will need to be pruned by about 5 degrees. A couple of days should fail to reach 30...especially if there is snow on the ground.

 

3. The ensembles continue to look outstanding deep into week 2. This is especially true on the latest GEM ensemble which is incredible tonight.

 

4. Still a high chance of a major snow event in the 10 to 15 day period.

4. Good chance a major snow event occurs within 10 days.

[snow_wizard]

Probably true. Seattle is not a good spot for cold. PDX and the Willamette Valley probably remain below freezing. We don't sit next to a warm body of water.

SEA was colder than those places in January 1950. Later on this event could take on a pretty strong N to S temperature gradient.

[Gradient Keeper]

Me keeping my word or the actual stretch of 20s?

Hmmm, Lol. The stretch of sub 30 degree temps.

[stuffradio]

If that happens I swear to god I will never ***** about a long heatwave ever again.

 

I'm taking a screenshot. No take backs!