December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[GHweatherChris]

Got my new weather station set up tonight, glad I found time before next week.

[snow_wizard]

Almost down to freezing already tonight. Looks like I'll end up with 20 lows of 32 or lower this month.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, it did horrible for the "events" this month. 95% of the time it didn't show anything for anyone.

 

 

No looking at snow maps at all... just precip and 925 temps and drawing my own conclusions for my area.     

[Bryant]

FWIW, it did horrible for the "events" this month. 95% of the time it didn't show anything for anyone.

He's just being typical Tim. According to him, he's just reporting what the models show

[snow_wizard]

Got my new weather station set up tonight, glad I found time before next week.

No biggy even if you didn't. According to some on here it won't even get cold enough to keep snow on the ground anyway.

[Bryant]

Got my new weather station set up tonight, glad I found time before next week.

Got mine setup and uploading to wunderground last night!

[snow_wizard]

He's just being typical Tim. According to him, he's just reporting what the models show

I've sure never heard of snow melting behind an Arctic front. I can't understand why the NWS is so mild on Sunday. They were getting close this morning and then they raised the temps again. If 510 heights and 850s of -14 can't deliver a high colder than 32 in Seattle something is VERY wrong.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Almost down to freezing already tonight. Looks like I'll end up with 20 lows of 32 or lower this month.

 

Looks like I'll likely end up with 23 sub-freezing lows. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guys get ready for highs 35-50 with lows 25-35...Chance of mixed precipitation.

 

And any snow that falls will melt before you can look out your front window to see it fall. 

[Bryant]

I've sure never heard of snow melting behind an Arctic front. I can't understand why the NWS is so mild on Sunday. They were getting close this morning and then they raised the temps again. If 510 heights and 850s of -14 can't deliver a high colder than 32 in Seattle something is VERY wrong.

Agreed. Day time heating won't do much with those dew points.

[Goducks09]

I'm cautiously optimistic right now. I'm hoping for a good set of 00z model runs tonight. I can't think of a better way to end the year than an incredible set of 00z model runs tomorrow night as we watch snow and fireworks light up the sky tomorrow at midnight. Let's ring in the New Year with snow!

 

Your mood certainly has changed from at this time last night!

[TT-SEA]

He's just being typical Tim. According to him, he's just reporting what the models show

 

 

The ECMWF and GFS MOS are not showing mid to upper 30s on Sunday?   

 

 

[Weather101]

Your mood certainly has changed from at this time last night!

Wasn't he the one crying? lol can't remember

[Jesse]

Wow oh wow. I go sledding all day and come back to model pandemonium.

 

12z Euro ensemble (first thing I check) looks absolutely amazing out to day ten. The 18z ensembles were very good as well. More cold members beyond day 7 than the last few ensemble charts.

 

And of course, the 18z GFS op was orgasmic.

[TT-SEA]

Wow oh wow. I go sledding all day and come back to model pandemonium.

 

12z Euro ensemble (first thing I check) looks absolutely amazing out to day ten. The 18z ensembles were very good as well. More cold members beyond day 7 than the last few ensemble charts.

 

And of course, the 18z GFS op was orgasmic.

 

 

Potential is huge for later next week.   Dream scenario with cold air in place and lots of moisture.

[Jesse]

Looking over everything this feels pretty surreal. Could be our longest and coldest stretch of wintery January weather since the early 80s or even before.

[Heavy Snow]

Your mood certainly has changed from at this time last night!

 

It sure has, I'm on cloud 9 right now!

[The Swamp]

Tim, tell us about when the pattern is going to break down and rain and 55 degrees will be back, please.

[Bryant]

Wasn't he the one crying? lol can't remember

That wasn't needed

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Got mine setup and uploading to wunderground last night!

 

Nice, I managed to get mine up and uploading before the last cold snap. There were a few interesting days but nothing compared to what's coming up.

[umadbro]

I'm sticking with its all to good to be true for next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

He's just being typical Tim. According to him, he's just reporting what the models show

 

 

Sort of ironic... I was very positive multiple times in the last month for your backyard.   Way more positive than you were being.   And I was wrong to be so positive.   

 

I go with what the models show.   You will ignore that when its good news... and crucify me if its not news you like to hear.   No win situation with you.   So I will just keep doing models updates and let you slam me for every post.   

 

I also posted snowfall maps today that were orgasmic for everyone.   Typical Tim?    Your goal is to attack and mock me at every turn so it loses all meaning when you do it.  

[Heavy Snow]

Wasn't he the one crying? lol can't remember

That wasn't needed

 

If the models keep showing what their showing, I'll be crying tears of joy.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, tell us about when the pattern is going to break down and rain and 55 degrees will be back, please.

 

 

 

No idea Jon.   

[The Swamp]

No idea Jon.   

 

You know me, I don't have any use for cold weather with out snow.

 

I'd rather have 55 and warm rain than cold and dry.  

[TT-SEA]

You know me, I don't have any use for cold weather with out snow.

 

I'd rather have 55 and warm rain than cold and dry.  

 

Snow makes all the difference for me too.   

 

Just annoying without it.  

[Goducks09]

Wasn't he the one crying? lol can't remember

 

I dunno, but he did specifically say that he would never post anything about weather ever again. Lol.  Good to see he stepped back from the edge.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Low further west

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like a slightly favorable last minute trend...

[Jbolin]

Posted by a friend of mine. 

Keep in mind seven day deterministic forecasts are subject to change.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like a slightly favorable last minute trend...

 

00z is a touch milder so far for sure, maybe a little more moisture though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold air a little slower to move in...Or it just doesn't get quite as cold, we'll see...

[Bryant]

Sort of ironic... I was very positive multiple times in the last month for your backyard. Way more positive than you were being. And I was wrong to be so positive.

 

I go with what the models show. You will ignore that when its good news... and crucify me if its not news you like to hear. No win situation with you. So I will just keep doing models updates and let you slam me for every post.

 

I also posted snowfall maps today that were orgasmic for everyone. Typical Tim? Your goal is to attack and mock me at every turn so it loses all meaning when you do it.

Yes you were positive for my backyard, most of which didn't work out in the end. I appreciate the positivity.

 

It's your approach that I mainly dislike to be honest. You seem to focus on picking apart anything positive currently floating around the forum. Yeah, for some reason or another I feel the need to say something when I don't always need to, but it would be out of character to stop now!

[Guest Sounder]

Sort of ironic... I was very positive multiple times in the last month for your backyard.   Way more positive than you were being.   And I was wrong to be so positive.   

 

I go with what the models show.   You will ignore that when its good news... and crucify me if its not news you like to hear.   No win situation with you.   So I will just keep doing models updates and let you slam me for every post.   

 

I also posted snowfall maps today that were orgasmic for everyone.   Typical Tim?    Your goal is to attack and mock me at every turn so it loses all meaning when you do it.  

Is this really that confusing for you? You really can't understand, after all these years, why people might not respond well to you?

 

It's not that you're wrong about what those models are showing, it's just your attitude about it. You seem to take particular enjoyment in being negative, and are often silent for long periods when there isn't anything to be negative about. You place a needless emphasis on anything bad, any often gloss over all the positive things to talk about. It just gets exhausting.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looking like an epic trace in the swamp. Glad to see things improving in the near term. Always encouraging. 

[FroYoBro]

A new development is a weak low kind of sits at the southern Oregon coast for a while. Southern Oregon coast snowstorm????

[Bryant]

Is this really that confusing for you? You really can't understand, after all these years, why people might not respond well to you?

 

It's not that you're wrong about what those models are showing, it's just your attitude about it. You seem to take particular enjoyment in being negative, and are often silent for long periods when there isn't anything to be negative about. You place a needless emphasis on anything bad, any often gloss over all the positive things to talk about. It just gets exhausting.

Very good way to put it

[FroYoBro]

A new development is a weak low kind of sits at the southern Oregon coast for a while. Southern Oregon coast snowstorm????

 

I guess it was shown before. Just a little stronger this run. 

[overcast]

What impact does snow cover typically have on nighttime radiative cooling - couple degrees, or a lot more? Is the small amount of snow accumulation being shown already baked into the temps models are showing for next week?

[TT-SEA]

Is this really that confusing for you? You really can't understand, after all these years, why people might not respond well to you?

 

It's not that you're wrong about what those models are showing, it's just your attitude about it. You seem to take particular enjoyment in being negative, and are often silent for long periods when there isn't anything to be negative about. You place a needless emphasis on anything bad, any often gloss over all the positive things to talk about. It just gets exhausting.

 

 

Not true at all... there have been numerous times in the last month when I was leading the charge.     I jump in feet first when it looks great... as I will likely do later this coming week.   

 

This weekend looks a little marginal with precip and cold air timing and highs on Sunday.     

 

I remember this scenario in the past.