December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[luvssnow_spokane]

After 9 rounds of appetizers, then the main course, I would hope everyone's snow/cold appetite is fully sated.

Well lets get to the main course then! So far the appetizers have been mainly cold and wet and just taste like .

[MossMan]

Just arrived at the lake house to watch the game...still sitting at 32 degrees.

[Heavy Snow]

A lot of us have been pretty good with this stuff lately. I'm the one who predicted lowland snow (and or snow on the ground) for New Years at least two weeks ago.

Yeah you did well in this time period too and this should qualify as a modified Arctic Blast.

[Phil]

I thought you called for an ice age starting in 2017

The start of a multidecadal cooling.

[snow_wizard]

My thoughts from mid-December. The polar domain is fighting a bit harder than I thought it would, but it should give in eventually.

I would say the EPO drop has been more like off a cliff instead of gradual, but you have been pretty accurate for the most part.

[Kayla]

Portland NWS really missed an opportunity here.

 

Oh don't worry, they were all over it this morning in the AFD.

 

"Light rain ahead of the front will reach the SW WA coast early this

afternoon and slowly move SW across the forecast area, reaching the

Portland metro area around 4PM, Salem around 8 PM, and Eugene around

10 pm. The 12z model soundings show an interesting temperature and

moisture profile mainly to the north when the precipitation first

arrives. The surface is forecasted to be above warming, but the layer

just above the surface is projected to be below freezing. This

suggests that some snow could be mixed in with the rain initially.

The precipitation will be light during this time, and do not expect

any accumulations, but have updated this evening`s forecast to have a

few hours of a rain/snow mix for parts of the Willamette Valley, the

Columbia River Gorge, and the lower Columbia River Valley."

[Deweydog]

A lot of us have been pretty good with this stuff lately. I'm the one who predicted lowland snow (and or snow on the ground) for New Years at least two weeks ago.

That was an outstanding call.

[snow_wizard]

What has broken our way??  lol... I have seen nothing break our way up here yet. Was it in December? Because I missed it. Oh yeah I got a trace of snow when many models at time showed more. Or was it when this weekend showed 3 inches of snow here tonight through tomorrow. Maybe that's it. OH yeah it has not happened yet but I am sure it will ... that's it.

The general cold pattern and lowland snow in places. I'm not talking about fine details.

 

Relax...you will have snow tonight. You trust the models way too much. In fact even they are insistent we will have some. This is a good scenario for this area to over perform.

[Phil]

I would say the EPO drop has been more like off a cliff instead of gradual, but you have been pretty accurate for the most part.

Thanks. It's very difficult to forecast specifics 3-4+ weeks in advance, so I'm okay with it (so far). Could blow up in my face eventually, though.

 

I know that I wasn't bullish on early January because I remember that heated debate I got into with Flatiron over it.

[Kayla]

PDX NWS fully believes the roads will be bad Monday from the packed snow from the 1-3 inches they think Portland/North valley could magically get.

 

"Temperatures will drop below freezing early Sunday evening, and stay

there through Monday for most areas. So, roads likely to stay slick

and icy/snowpacked during that time, making for hazardous driving

conditions."

 

 

Getting real hard to take these guys seriously. I'm not sure any model supports the outcome they are going with.

 

They are either going to come out of tomorrow looking like geniuses or complete amateurs. Tough to see more than 1" of accumulations for anyone below 1,000'.

[Front Ranger]

Oh don't worry, they were all over it this morning in the AFD.

 

"Light rain ahead of the front will reach the SW WA coast early this

afternoon and slowly move SW across the forecast area, reaching the

Portland metro area around 4PM, Salem around 8 PM, and Eugene around

10 pm. The 12z model soundings show an interesting temperature and

moisture profile mainly to the north when the precipitation first

arrives. The surface is forecasted to be above warming, but the layer

just above the surface is projected to be below freezing. This

suggests that some snow could be mixed in with the rain initially.

The precipitation will be light during this time, and do not expect

any accumulations, but have updated this evening`s forecast to have a

few hours of a rain/snow mix for parts of the Willamette Valley, the

Columbia River Gorge, and the lower Columbia River Valley."

 

But they forgot to issue the customary WSW.

[Front Ranger]

Thanks. It's very difficult to forecast specifics 3-4+ weeks in advance, so I'm okay with it (so far). Could blow up in my face eventually, though.

 

I know that I wasn't bullish on early January because I remember that heated debate I got into with Flatiron over it.

 

 

The debate was about the mid December/holiday period, goofus. And we're not reliving that.

[jakeinthevalley]

As for the mid Willamette Valley it will be interesting to see what happens later as I see no way we reach the forecast high of around 40f. I imagine a southerly breeze could bump the lower levels, but for now, we are all in the lower 30's.

[Phil]

 

The debate was about the mid December/holiday period, goofus. And we're not reliving that.

Lol, you referenced mid-December to chastise my New Years thoughts. Can't deny it because I have the screenshots.

[Deweydog]

Another outlander pissing match incoming!!!

[ShawniganLake]

Thanks. It's very difficult to forecast specifics 3-4+ weeks in advance, so I'm okay with it (so far). Could blow up in my face eventually, though.

 

I know that I wasn't bullish on early January because I remember that heated debate I got into with Flatiron over it.

Are the latest euro weeklies not showing a +Pna after mid-month. And if so, you think they are off?

[Kayla]

But they forgot to issue the customary WSW.

 

That's coming in the afternoon package.

[Front Ranger]

Another outlander pissing match incoming!!!

 

He has the screenshots. I have no chance.

 

Piss away, Phil.

[Phil]

Another outlander pissing match incoming!!!

Que the theme song from "Saw".

[Front Ranger]

That's coming in the afternoon package.

 

Ah. Retroactive.

[Perturbed Member]

They are either going to come out of tomorrow looking like geniuses or complete amateurs. Tough to see more than 1" of accumulations for anyone below 1,000'.

 

Yeah I'm still thinking T-1 inch and probably the trace will be a lot more common for most. Its not like we've never seen these kind of setups before. The precip will run out just as it gets cold enough, we've seen it all the time. I think some random places could get lucky and get some isolated post frontal showers that might dump higher amounts in isolation but I don't see how this can give a widespread 1-2 or 3 inches.

 

More likely than not they will look pretty silly by this time tomorrow. 

[Deweydog]

At least the urine might freeze in the next 36 hours or so...

[Phil]

Are the latest euro weeklies not showing a +Pna after mid-month. And if so, you think they are off?

Not until week four, but I don't agree with their current depiction either..I think they're mishandling the tropical convection.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty impressive how cold it is everywhere right now. I'm still at 32 here and it sounds like a lot of places are in that area. Not bad considering we are ahead of the Arctic front.

[Front Ranger]

Pretty impressive how cold it is everywhere right now. I'm still at 32 here and it sounds like a lot of places are in that area. Not bad considering we are ahead of the Arctic front.

 

Tim will have you know...

[Perturbed Member]

Given the recent model trends for the "arctic" event, time to break out this video:

 

 

 

[Phil]

At least the urine might freeze in the next 36 hours or so...

I'm stuck in a tiny Miami apartment with four people and a broken AC unit. No chance.

 

Don't piss me off.

[Front Ranger]

At least the urine might freeze in the next 36 hours or so...

 

Don't piss facing north. Or east in Portland.

[Timmy]

When do the euro ensembles come out?

[snow_wizard]

I'm still forecasting we will all have a lot of fun this month. It's easy to forget we always deal with these glitches going into a good period of weather.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I miss the hot dog symbol for the weenie people.

[Front Ranger]

Given the recent model trends for the "arctic" event, time to break out this video:

 

I mean, PDX will probably still see at least a few days below freezing...

[snow_wizard]

When do the euro ensembles comie out?

The Euro's are commies?

[Jesse]

That was an outstanding call.

I predicted early January being a thing earlier than that.

[TT-SEA]

Tim will have you know...

 

 

The arctic front will scour out the trapped low level cold and warm us up tomorrow.

 

That is a 100% accurate statement BTW.  

[Deweydog]

The Euro's are commies?

I figured Comey had a hand in this model disaster.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

30 with dense fog! SCORE!

[Jesse]

When do the euro ensembles come out?

They're usually out by 12:30.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Sitting at 36.5F here in Victoria with light rain and the occasional snowflake mixing in. The timing of this has been pretty good so far with cloud cover moving into the region just as it was getting light out; it's hard to see it warming up much today before the real cold stuff starts filtering in tonight. There's a lot of excitement/anxiety for the stuff shown late next week, but we may be underestimating what's coming tonight into tomorrow. This is still a pretty dynamic situation by our standards, it's been a long while since a short wave with 850mb temperatures below -10C has rolled through the PNW in early January. Maybe it's a good thing expectations have been held in check for this one, though I'm fully expecting there will be surprises and favorable model busts in the snowfall department over the next 2 days.

[Perturbed Member]

I mean, PDX will probably still see at least a few days below freezing...

 

 

Agreed, was just looking for an excuse to post that haha.