December 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

The arctic front will scour out the trapped low level cold and warm us up tomorrow.

 

That is a 100% accurate statement BTW.  

 

The warmest temps in the next 36 hours should come today for most.

[Deweydog]

I predicted early January being a thing earlier than that.

So many pats on the back to hand out!

 

I'm gonna be exhausted and have no energy for shoveling snow.

[GHweatherChris]

hmmm...

  

[snow_wizard]

Given the recent model trends for the "arctic" event, time to break out this video:

OMG that is funny! I literally can't breath I'm laughing so hard. I have tears in my eyes.

[Deweydog]

hmmm...

Indeed.

 

VERY interesting...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The arctic front will scour out the trapped low level cold and warm us up tomorrow.

 

That is a 100% accurate statement BTW.  

 

Perhaps to a limited extent in a narrow stretch of downslope locations, but this does not look like a scouring pattern to me, quite the opposite:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016123112/gfs_T850_nwus_7.png

[Jesse]

OMG that is funny! I literally can't breath I'm laughing so hard. I have tears in my eyes.

Is this your first time seeing this one? It's hilarious!

[snow_wizard]

The warmest temps in the next 36 hours should come today for most.

I think he's forgetting Arctic fronts have cold continental air behind them. The temp / dp combo tomorrow will not be favorable for snow melt. The pressure gradients will be favorable to force Fraser River air down to Seattle quite quickly tomorrow.

[Deweydog]

The NAM stopped the bleeding for now. Does NOT appear warmer than the 12z so far.

[snow_wizard]

Is this your first time seeing this one? It's hilarious!

The funny thing is I've seen it before and I still laughed that hard. Any idea who made it?

[Brennan]

Snowing here lightly at 35*... ready for this winterwonderland

[Jesse]

I still think 1992-93 is looking a better analog thus far than 1948-49.

[snow_wizard]

The NAM stopped the bleeding for now. Does NOT appear warmer than the 12z so far.

Praise God. We can put the razor blades way.

[Deweydog]

I still think 1992-93 is looking a better analog thus far than 1948-49.

Definitely.

[Jesse]

The NAM stopped the bleeding for now. Does NOT appear warmer than the 12z so far.

The Euro seemed about the same as last night's too. Maybe even a tad cooler through midweek but that could be the result of the intervals being off by 12 hours compared to the 00z.

[snow_wizard]

I still think 1992-93 is looking a better analog thus far than 1948-49.

At least up here 1992-93 never got as cold as it's going to in the next few days. It certainly does have the recurring cold theme though. Almost a 1971-72 flavor up this way.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just looked and i have only seen a over 40 degree day here 5 times this entire month.This will be the coldest average month here in a long time. Holding on to the snow good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Given the recent model trends for the "arctic" event, time to break out this video:

LOL or call me. Hilarious

[TT-SEA]

Take a break from weather and watch the UW Huskies play in the College Football Playoffs.   

 

Hope they can at least keep it close.  

[Deweydog]

Take a break from weather and watch the UW Huskies play in the College Football Playoffs.

 

Hope they can at least keep it close.

We ate at Chick-fill-A last night. It's a good sign!

[FroYoBro]

Take a break from weather and watch the UW Huskies play in the College Football Playoffs.   

 

Hope they can at least keep it close.  

 

I hope they get demolished. 

[TT-SEA]

I hope they get demolished. 

 

 

Likely to get your wish... Alabama beat Michigan 38-0 last year in this round.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still 34 at seatac doubt they see mid 40's today.

[Kayla]

The Euro seemed about the same as last night's too. Maybe even a tad cooler through midweek but that could be the result of the intervals being off by 12 hours compared to the 00z.

 

12z low levels were definitely a lot colder than the 00z last night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope they get demolished.

I hope it's 50 to 0.

[ShawniganLake]

Sitting at 36.5F here in Victoria with light rain and the occasional snowflake mixing in. The timing of this has been pretty good so far with cloud cover moving into the region just as it was getting light out; it's hard to see it warming up much today before the real cold stuff starts filtering in tonight. There's a lot of excitement/anxiety for the stuff shown late next week, but we may be underestimating what's coming tonight into tomorrow. This is still a pretty dynamic situation by our standards, it's been a long while since a short wave with 850mb temperatures below -10C has rolled through the PNW in early January. Maybe it's a good thing expectations have been held in check for this one, though I'm fully expecting there will be surprises and favorable model busts in the snowfall department over the next 2 days.

Seems like the favourable dynamics for southern Vancouver island are fleeting and push south rather quickly this evening. The last few model runs have given me some hope for a burst of flurries south of Nanaimo overnight tonight as the outflow kicks in. Localized trace-2" seems possible. But it also seems just as likely many of us see nothing.

[Jesse]

We ate at Chick-fill-A last night. It's a good sign!

The new one on 164th? I could have almost thrown a rock and hit you.

[FroYoBro]

I hope it's 50 to 0.

At least we get along when it comes to college sports! 

[HighlandExperience]

Still 34 at seatac doubt they see mid 40's today.

31 here in issaquah

[Deweydog]

Likely to get your wish... Alabama beat Michigan 38-0 last year in this round.

I bet it gets up to 45 tomorrow at UW.

[Deweydog]

The new one on 164th? I could have almost thrown a rock and hit you.

Yep. I was wondering who was throwing those.

[Front Ranger]

NAM looks nice and juicy with the Arctic front. And pretty fast...again, nothing like the fronts seen to this point.

[Deweydog]

There goes the shutout...

[Front Ranger]

I hope it's 50 to 0.

 

That would be better than the Ducks fared against the Huskies this year.

[Gradient Keeper]

Take a break from weather and watch the UW Huskies play in the College Football Playoffs.   

 

Hope they can at least keep it close.  

TD !!!! 7-0 !

[jakeinthevalley]

50 to 7 maybe?

[Gradient Keeper]

NAM looks nice and juicy with the Arctic front. And pretty fast...again, nothing like the fronts seen to this point.

Shortwave/arctic front is hauling a**. I'm real skeptical if not do not believe it's going to suddenly slow/stall right over us. Nope.

[TT-SEA]

I hope it's 50 to 0.

 

 

Maybe 50-7... but at least they did not get shut out!   

[Chewbacca Defense]

Just started snowing here in Bellingham!  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Praise God. We can put the razor blades way.

Wait I am still using to cut the chalk line I was going to snort... Premature.