12/16 - 12/18 Plains/Lakes Major Winter Storm

[Niko]

My totals range from 6-8" on all weather stations. Not too shabby.

[Tony]

Sleet/freezing rain cutting back on totals on this run. Not totaly sure I agree with the freezing line getting that far north so will have to keep an eye on the higher resoultion models to see how far north this actually gets.

[Lutzowgl14]

Thank you, I am looking forward to this!

[james1976]

Heavier snow starting to come back south into IA!

[gosaints]

hope to see the defo keep juicing.  remember that models tend struggle with placement of these features

[Niko]

I am still not sure whether I will have any mixing going on in my area. If I don't, then, my totals should be higher then predicted.

 

 

Hopefully, I stay all snow.

[Tom]

12z GFS....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121512/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

KC area keeps looking better but placement and development of the defo band is going to be critical as the band is only about 100 miles wide...

[Tom]

Hey, even folks in E NE score a couple inches...

[Tony]

12z GFS....

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121512/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png

Tom, we keep inching our way up on these runs. Keep the hope alive!

[St Paul Storm]

For as large as the sub forum is, can't get much more spread the wealth as is being depicted with this system. Good and bad surprises ahead undoubtedly, but looking like many of us get at least something. That doesn't happen too often.

[NEJeremy]

No offense, but I'll believe it when I see it!   I'm guessing 1" tops for here.

[Money]

Gfs has been in the 12-16 range here for awhile now

[winterfreak]

The GFS is the only model showing that kind of snow. I want to believe it but I'm super skeptical.

[WBadgersW]

Gfs has been in the 12-16 range here for awhile now

Yeah and the 12z NAM took a step towards the GFS. Good 10-14".

[indianajohn]

Wow a little over 24 hours away and the only "for sure thing" we have is that Wisconsin will get snow, everyone else is in a wait and see pattern.

[St Paul Storm]

Wow a little over 24 hours away and the only "for sure thing" we have is that Wisconsin will get snow, everyone else is in a wait and see pattern.

I don't know about that. Only WI for sure??

[Niko]

Wow a little over 24 hours away and the only "for sure thing" we have is that Wisconsin will get snow, everyone else is in a wait and see pattern.

Not me...I am in for 6-8inches. The only question with my area is whether I get mixing or not. If not, then, my totals increase.

[Tom]

12z GGEM still coming in with a snowy solution and a wound up storm...995mb near KC...

[Tom]

12z GGEM also showing the defo band...

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121512/072/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[Tom]

Might be another I-80 north warning snow for N IL and IA...cutting it very close...

[WBadgersW]

I take it warnings will be issued soon

 

Ggem 15"

NAM 14"

GFS 16"

[Tom]

Both GFS/GGEM are indicating some sort of meso scale feature over LM on the tail end that can push a lake plume inland...

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ggem/2016121512/060/sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.png

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016121512/060/sfcwind_mslp.us_mw.png

[Madtown]

Looks like 10" here off today's runs?

[indianajohn]

I don't know about that. Only WI for sure??

Sorry about that forgot about the MN peeps

[Tom]

Looks like 10" here off today's runs?

On average, looks good with possible lolipop totals if meso scale features set up just right.

[winterfreak]

Canadian not biting on that defo band down here. Lezak saying a dusting to two inches if everything goes right. The GFS has little support for its solution.

[shakjen]

Might be another I-80 north warning snow for N IL and IA...cutting it very close...

Yep, and last week i was in that warning and got 2.5". I am right on the edge again.

[Tom]

Yep, and last week i was in that warning and got 2.5". I am right on the edge again.

It'll be another nowcast event for those on the southern fringe...

[james1976]

What do ensembles look like??

[WBadgersW]

Warnings are up for 7-11". MKX also included the counties bordering Illinois.

[jaster220]

The country of canada should invest a couple million dollars to upgrade there data output software

 

I heard they are planning an entirely new model at approx $4.6 million?

 

Up to 18k views!  We are going to blow past the previous storm thread.  Nice to see all the action and I'm sure many will enjoy another weekend snowstorm.

 

I've been following and/or posting less with this one since it looks more tame than last week's, and I just had two commutes in bliz conditions from LES and there's places I drive through that have a beautiful 15+ OTG, so y'all can get on this one and enjoy it! I already have what would be an amazing snow pack for this time of year, so trying not to be too greedy. 

 

12z GFS showing a healthy defo band...bullseye E/C Wisco...model is picking up on a back-end lake plume...

 

Would like to see that fill in a bit southward to include u-n-me 

[gosaints]

The country of canada should invest a couple million dollars to upgrade there data output software

 

I heard they are planning an entirely new model at approx $4.6 million?

 

Really?

[Tom]

Another component that will add to the higher accumulations is that the winds won't be terribly strong when the snow fly's which can tear apart a snow flake.  5-15 mph winds aren't too bad.  You guys up north are going to have fun with this storm.

[gosaints]

Another component that will add to the higher accumulations is that the winds won't be terribly strong when the snow fly's which can tear apart a snow flake.  5-15 mph winds aren't too bad.  You guys up north are going to have fun with this storm.

Ya things are lining up pretty good for some places to fluff up nice totals.  Obviously east central sconny looks to jack on moisture

[gosaints]

Will be interesting to see when things start to get going tomorrow.  GFS seems to be the slowest of the models with starting the snow

[jaster220]

Sorry about that forgot about the MN peeps

 

Gopher-Badger-Wolverine storm! Darn critters anyways..  

[Snowshoe]

Green Bay going warning soon. 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1127 AM CST Thu Dec 15 2016

We will be upgrading the winter storm watch to a warning before
the noon hour. The updated WSW will be out shortly. Details to
follow in the afternoon AFD.

[Tom]

12z Euro a touch weaker with a 998mb SLP in C IL...850's colder than the GFS around these parts...

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016121512/ecmwf_T850_ncus_3.png