January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Ensemble improvement. Almost all of the members showing the warmer "path" later this week are gone now.

[Deweydog]

Models are still playing catch up with the amount of cold air actually making it into the basin. Pretty crazy.

[Timmy]

Not super impressed by temps out here. Up to 34 in scappoose with a 25 dp

[Jesse]

Models are still playing catch up with the amount of cold air actually making it into the basin. Pretty crazy.

Catch up or catch down?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like another weak transition event where the cold air erodes away. Typical.

Yep, Another marginal event that had so much potential. Maybe next time... It was fun... I think.    <_>

 

#WARNINGSHOT2017

[Deweydog]

Catch up or catch down?

I think you know the answer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not super impressed by temps out here. Up to 34 in scappoose with a 25 dp

gfs guidance is 24 for a high at PDX Thursday, keeps all the snow just south though. Outflow mania

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like the arctic air has oozed in. dramatic! Dewpoint at 20

[Jesse]

I think you know the answer.

Way colder air than modeled of course.

[Timmy]

Catch up or catch down?

are they colder or warmer than expected at this time?

[HighlandExperience]

Yep, Another marginal event that had so much potential. Maybe next time... It was fun... I think.    <_>

 

#WARNINGSHOT2017

 

Looks like the favored areas of Hood Canal and the foothills just east of HWY 18 get snow this weekend. 

[Kayla]

Euro still wants to bring that low through NorCal albeit slightly further north compared to previous runs.

[Jesse]

are they colder or warmer than expected at this time?

I think you know the answer.

[Timmy]

I think you know the answer.

ive been without Internet and or power for much of the last 24 hours and honestly haven't been looking at models. I was asking a legit question.

[Jesse]

ive been without Internet and or power for much of the last 24 hours and honestly haven't been looking at models. I was asking a legit question.

Probably warmer.

[epiceast]

Seems like Willamette valley might be mostly snow covered tonight. Teens @ Pdx?

[ShawniganLake]

So far the Fraser river outflow has failed to even produce a freeze on parts of southern Vancouver island. Lots of gusty 33F reading around the Capital region.

[Deweydog]

ive been without Internet and or power for much of the last 24 hours and honestly haven't been looking at models. I was asking a legit question.

Pretty much every run of every model since Thursday have reduced the depth and magnitude of the cold making it west of the Rockies.

[Jesse]

PDX up to 33!

[Timmy]

Pretty much every run of every model since Thursday have reduced the depth and magnitude of the cold making it west of the Rockies.

so, one could say it got pushed east? That shouldn't be possible...

[Jesse]

Pretty much every run of every model since Thursday have reduced the depth and magnitude of the cold making it west of the Rockies.

-16C still to The Dalles by hour 30. Good enough for me.

[Goducks09]

Seems like Willamette valley might be mostly snow covered tonight. Teens @ Pdx?

 

 

Only small parts of the valley have snow cover  - 90% does not.  At least not yet.

[Deweydog]

so, one could say it got pushed east? That shouldn't be possible...

That's incorrect. The pattern actually shifted west.

[Jesse]

so, one could say it got pushed east? That shouldn't be possible...

Well if you want to get technical the mechanism that would have drawn it in trended too far west.

[Kayla]

Euro shows -11c at 925mb Wednesday morning over PDX. Quite impressive outflow. 

[epiceast]

Only small parts of the valley have snow cover  - 90% does not.  At least not yet.

That's about to change in the next couple of hours... The radar seems to be moving in the right direction

[Jesse]

Euro shows -11c at 925mb Wednesday morning over PDX. Quite impressive outflow.

Nice!

[Jesse]

So far the Fraser river outflow has failed to even produce a freeze on parts of southern Vancouver island. Lots of gusty 33F reading around the Capital region.

After your coldest December since when?

[MossMan]

Perhaps we will get warning shot #5 in mid January, warning shot #6 in Feb, and then the most perfect epic atmospheric setup for Puget Sound...in May.

[Goducks09]

That's about to change in the next couple of hours... The radar seems to be moving in the right direction

 

It does - hopefully we can see a bit of enhancement as the day goes on.

[FroYoBro]

That's about to change in the next couple of hours... The radar seems to be moving in the right direction

 

This is very light stuff. There is no way that PDX gets to the teens this week. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looks like the favored areas of Hood Canal and the foothills just east of HWY 18 get snow this weekend. 

 Snow to rain transition for most with copious amounts of freezing rain. Fantastic!!!  

 

#WARNINGSHOTOVERPERFORMS2017

[Kayla]

That's about to change in the next couple of hours... The radar seems to be moving in the right direction

 

Most of those returns are not reaching the ground unfortunately.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Perhaps we will get warning shot #5 in mid January, warning shot #6 in Feb, and then the most perfect epic atmospheric setup for Puget Sound...in May.

LOL.. funny but to be honest that is probably about right on from our recent trends.

[Kayla]

This is very light stuff. There is no way that PDX gets to the teens this week. 

 

Never say never! Thursday and Friday morning offshore gradients relax which could allow them to get into the upper teens.

[Jesse]

Snow to rain transition for most with copious amounts of freezing rain. Fantastic!!!

 

#WARNINGSHOTOVERPERFORMS2017

You should take a break from posting in protest of this awful event.

[epiceast]

You should take a break from posting in protest of this awful event.

Spicy

[FroYoBro]

The area between Salem and Newberg looks to be picking up a nice dusting. 

[Jesse]

Never say never! Thursday and Friday morning offshore gradients relax which could allow them to get into the upper teens.

I was noticing the same thing. Won't hang my hat on it but it would be nice.

[chinook]

Large flakes falling in McMinnville. Sitting at 33f