January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

new RPM brings back snow!http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/RPM_SNOW_18z.jpg

[jakeinthevalley]

I know!   We have been talking about that for the last couple years... deciding whether to thin them out or top them.   I think topping them looks ugly.    

Just cut them down. They will be that size again in a few years anyway.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So the red in this map are non-sticking snow areas, the blue is cold 33 degree rain...Valid 6am tomorrow morning.

 

 

 

http://oi65.tinypic.com/2mfmyp2.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z models are showing a pretty significant event across NW oregon.

[Perturbed Member]

All rain in Beaverton near Highway 26.

 

 

Troutdale is still 35F even with a strong east wind. It will take a few more hours for the CAA to really take hold in the Columbia basin and then to spread west to us. 6-8PM might be when we all change over. I haven't seen anything but a few wet flakes under some heavy precip earlier.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS shows an atmospheric river event into NW Oregon in a week. 

[luterra]

I've flown out a couple of times in snow/ice and never been delayed more than an hour.

I'm flying out tomorrow 10:55 am, hoping for the best.  Probably equal chances that the shuttle gets stuck in traffic until the flight leaves, or the flight is cancelled...

 

995 mb (29.38") in Corvallis now, still falling, low coming onshore around Coos Bay 992-993 mb.  North winds down the valley but 5 mph or less and gradients will be lessening as the low moves overhead.  Not much in the way of cold air advection here.

 

700 mb closed low/circulation center seems to be taking shape over far NW corner of Oregon, as modeled and now evident in radar circulation.  If 4km NAM/HRRR are correct that feature will remain stationary through tomorrow morning.

[TT-SEA]

Just cut them down. They will be that size again in a few years anyway.

 

Indeed.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Troutdale is still 35F even with a strong east wind. It will take a few more hours for the CAA to really take hold in the Columbia basin and then to spread west to us. 6-8PM might be when we all change over. I haven't seen anything but a few wet flakes under some heavy precip earlier.

 

My magic numbers are 28 at TDS 24 at Pendleton. Pendleton is there, The Dalles needs to cool a bit first. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm flying out tomorrow 10:55 am, hoping for the best.  Probably equal chances that the shuttle gets stuck in traffic until the flight leaves, or the flight is cancelled...

 

995 mb (29.38") in Corvallis now, still falling, low coming onshore around Coos Bay 992-993 mb.  North winds down the valley but 5 mph or less and gradients will be lessening as the low moves overhead.  Not much in the way of cold air advection here.

 

700 mb closed low/circulation center seems to be taking shape over far NW corner of Oregon, as modeled and now evident in radar circulation.  If 4km NAM/HRRR are correct that feature will remain stationary through tomorrow morning.

 

Starting to feel a little more confident Corvallis will see some snow. Likely less than an inch, but I would be surprised if you don't get a good dusting. 

[Timmy]

18z GFS shows an atmospheric river event into NW Oregon in a week. 

river of snow of rain?  If it's not a river of snow I don't want it.

[Perturbed Member]

My magic numbers are 28 at TDS 24 at Pendleton. Pendleton is there, The Dalles needs to cool a bit first. 

 

The Dalles is at 30F now, so not too far off then.

[MossMan]

I'm bored with this weather...lets hurry up and get the AR in here and get this pattern reset! 

[Timmy]

I picked the right winter to buy a generator and transfer switch! Over 24 hours without power this week. Over 50 for the winter so

Far

[Jesse]

Precip looking spotty so far. Hopefully that changes.

[Heavy Snow]

Snowing here in South Gresham elevation over 500 feet. I didn't expect this so early. Heading out to the store before it gets too bad out.

[Deweydog]

Dew point down 10 degrees in two hours at Larch.

[Goducks09]

Precip looking spotty so far. Hopefully that changes.

 

 

This isn't supposed to be the main round of precip.

[Jesse]

Looks like Mark finally came to his senses for highs later this week. Mid-upper 30s. Lows in the teens still wouldn't surprise me though, especially if we score some decent snowcover.

[Jesse]

Dew point down 10 degrees in two hours at Larch.

Good sign for a change over soon. But hoping the dry air doesn't gobble up all of our snow.

[Deweydog]

Precip looking spotty so far. Hopefully that changes.

Pretty weak deformation signature so far. Should fill in soon. If not by 6-7pm I'd start to be concerned.

[luterra]

Some area SLPs:

North Bend (OR) 29.30", up from 29.29" an hour ago

Newport 29.35"

Corvallis, Eugene, Roseburg all 29.36"

Salem, Redmond 29.38"

Portland 29.45"

The Dalles 29.65"

 

Not much for gradients away from the gorge.

[Goducks09]

Light flurries downtown right now.

[The Swamp]

Icy cold wind in swamp. Moisture lifting from the south.

[Goducks09]

Light flurries downtown right now.

 

 

No rain - all snow at street level.  Albeit, very light at the moment.

[The Swamp]

Sheesh. My bad. It's 40.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

70mph gust near Bellingham.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sheesh. My bad. It's 40.

 

Get rid of that Kmart Meter friend.

[MossMan]

Sheesh. My bad. It's 40.

Have you installed your state of the art mercury thermometer yet? 

[Deweydog]

Good sign for a change over soon. But hoping the dry air doesn't gobble up all of our snow.

Yeah, the wheels are turning. The downslope will obviously be a factor with what is not particularly deep moisture, but hopefully not as bad with prior events.

[MossMan]

Get rid of that Kmart Meter friend.

Hey i'm sure it was a blue light special at Kmart back in 1987 when he purchased it...they built quality s**t back then! 

[Jesse]

PDX up to 38.

 

DP down to 28 though. Hopefully that spike isn't thanks to downsloping.

[Perturbed Member]

Some flakes are mixing in here now. 

 

37F 33 dp. 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty weak deformation signature so far. Should fill in soon. If not by 6-7pm I'd start to be concerned.

 

 

Watching the radar loop... I think its in the early stage of development now.    Seems to be coming together as it pivots.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I am getting mad at all of the warm reports from Puyallup john. Private message me your address john so i can mail you a good one.

[Deweydog]

Watching the radar loop... I think its in the early stage of development now.    Seems to be coming together as it pivots.

 

I agree.  We're basically in no man's land right now between the deformation and the baroclinic leaf.  Very east coast-ish.  

[Bryant]

I'm bored with this weather...lets hurry up and get the AR in here and get this pattern reset!

Watch out, Timmy will ask you if you're mad! "U mad bro?"... something my cousin in middle school says all the time

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Final Forecast

 

PDX metro: 2-4"

 

Salem area: 1-3"

 

Albany: T-1"

 

Above 1000' 3-6"

 

Clark County: T-2"

[Bryant]

70mph gust near Bellingham.

Was in town just a little while ago, winds were quite impressive.

[Deweydog]

One thing is for sure, the basin is gonna have a lot of snow cover.