wx_statman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Last three years, really. We're due. We've been paying our dues for that uber-trough around 5/23/2013. Might still have a ways to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 About 0.65" of rain so far here. It's a raw night. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I wouldn't believe it if I didn't see it. Tim was right! Snow melts!!! It took an entire week to really start melting... impressive! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Last three years, really. We're due. One really bad spring month? I consider that a great spring. Comes down to timing as well... sometimes the crappy period does not always fit nicely into one month but still lasts over a month. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 So much anger behind that laughter... None at all. Don't start this crap again. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 We've been paying our dues for that uber-trough around 5/23/2013. Might still have a ways to go. That thing was truly unbelievable. I only had a high of 42 that day with some non-sticking snow. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 We've been paying our dues for that uber-trough around 5/23/2013. Might still have a ways to go.We were paying our dues for 2010-2012, which all featured fairly impressive periods of spring gloom. 2013 was more balanced and the last three were generally dry and warm after March, which is sort of a winter month anyways. Smells like a change may be near. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 None at all. Don't start this crap again. I should have added a winky face. I wasn't being serious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 We were paying our dues for 2010-2012, which all featured fairly impressive periods of spring gloom. 2013 was more balanced and the last three were generally dry and warm after March, which is sort of a winter month anyways. Smells like a change may be near. 2013 was a beautiful spring IMO. Some wild swings in late March, lots of continental airmasses in April and summer in early May. The 5/23 trough added to its charm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Probably unlikely to just continue following along... particularly with ENSO neutral which can go in any direction.We've seen a persistent pattern up to this point, what's your reasoning that it's unlikely to continue? The fact that you don't want it to? We're still in a La Ninã btw 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I should have added a winky face. I wasn't being serious. The is probably grain of truth to your statement as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 We've seen a persistent pattern up to this point, what's your reasoning that it's unlikely to continue? The fact that you don't want it to? We're still in a La Ninã btw I have no idea how it will proceed. I would love to follow 1927 but its highly unlikely to just keep following one year. I posted this in the other thread... but if this is not ENSO neutral right now then I am not sure what is neutral. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 2013 was a beautiful spring IMO. Some wild swings in late March, lots of continental airmasses in April and summer in early May. The 5/23 trough added to its charm.Yeah, that was a nice mix. 2010 was the worst, basically six months of spring that year and no really notable airmasses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 We were paying our dues for 2010-2012, which all featured fairly impressive periods of spring gloom. 2013 was more balanced and the last three were generally dry and warm after March, which is sort of a winter month anyways. Smells like a change may be near. 2010 and 2011 were terrible even by our standards. 2011 was the coldest spring ever for most of the PNW. And 2012 was pretty bad as well. We are not paying dues for record cold springs. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 We've seen a persistent pattern up to this point, what's your reasoning that it's unlikely to continue? The fact that you don't want it to? We're still in a La Ninã btwAs Jesse preached all last summer, persistence can only persist for so long... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 One really bad spring month? I consider that a great spring. Comes down to timing as well... sometimes the crappy period does not always fit nicely into one month but still lasts over a month. I think you're still feeling the hangover from 2008-12 springs, which were unusually cool/wet overall. Despite having 3 pretty "nice" springs since then. On average, April gets less than half the precip January does at SEA, and May gets 1.78", or about 30% of January's precip. Most years, spring is much drier and generally sunnier than winter in the PNW. It is also the season that Seattle sees the greatest benefit from the Olympic rain shadow, in terms of less rain and more sunshine than surrounding areas. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Yeah, that was a nice mix. 2010 was the worst, basically six months of spring that year and no really notable airmasses. 2010 was the worst. Longest spring I've ever seen here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 18z looks decent at the end and the ECMWF ensemble shows a nice retrogression in the 10 to 15 day period. May be some hope for early February. Maybe my anger over the epic snow fail will go away if something really starts to look solid. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 2010 and 2011 were terrible even by our standards. 2011 was the coldest spring ever for most of the PNW. And 2012 was pretty bad as well. We are not paying dues for record cold springs. 2015 and 2016 were some of our warmest springs ever. I'd say we have cancelled those two out nicely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 18z looks decent at the end and the ECMWF ensemble shows a nice retrogression in the 10 to 15 day period. May be some hope for early February. Maybe my anger over the epic snow fail will go away if something really starts to look solid.Hang in there big guy. I'm pissed off about it too, but there's not a lot that can be done. Wrong place, wrong time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Hang in there big guy. I'm pissed off about it too, but there's not a lot that can be done. Wrong place, wrong time. I was probably only angry about 3/4 of the time today. An improvement from the 7/8 I had been putting in. I hold serious grudges about this stuff. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 2010 was the worst. Longest spring I've ever seen here! As Tim will tell you, it was also the least sunny summer in Seattle history. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 2010 and 2011 were terrible even by our standards. 2011 was the coldest spring ever for most of the PNW. And 2012 was pretty bad as well. We are not paying dues for record cold springs.Yes we are. 2011 was the coldest April through June on record in the PNW. 2015 was the 2nd warmest and 2016 was the 4th warmest. Those dues done been paid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I think you're still feeling the hangover from 2008-12 springs, which were unusually cool/wet overall. Despite having 3 pretty "nice" springs since then. On average, April gets less than half the precip January does at SEA, and May gets 1.78", or about 30% of January's precip. Most years, spring is much drier and generally sunnier than winter in the PNW. It is also the season that Seattle sees the greatest benefit from the Olympic rain shadow, in terms of less rain and more sunshine than surrounding areas. And actually, if you look at the city of Seattle itself instead of SEA, the stark differences between winter and spring (and spring compared to surrounding areas) are even more pronounced. The Seattle city office downtown averaged 2.22" precip in April (36% of January) and just 1.32" in May (22% of January). For comparison, OLM averages 3.33" in April and 2.10" in May. PDX averages 2.54" in April and 2.27" in May. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 As Tim will tell you, it was also the least sunny summer in Seattle history. The real fluke that summer was that SEA managed two separate 3-day streaks of 90+ for the first time in history, despite all the gloom. Two anomalous ridges did the trick. PDX developed hot east winds at the surface on both 7/7 and 8/14...something you don't normally see in the middle of summer. Otherwise, lots of gunky low clouds that summer down here too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Yes we are. 2011 was the coldest April through June on record in the PNW. 2015 was the 2nd warmest and 2016 was the 4th warmest. Those dues done been paid. Maybe due for some normal springs? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 The real fluke that summer was that SEA managed two separate 3-day streaks of 90+ for the first time in history, despite all the gloom. Two anomalous ridges did the trick. PDX developed hot east winds at the surface on both 7/7 and 8/14...something you don't normally see in the middle of summer. Otherwise, lots of gunky low clouds that summer down here too. Yeah... it was two hot, sunny weeks and lots of gloom. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I was probably only angry about 3/4 of the time today. An improvement from the 7/8 I had been putting in. I hold serious grudges about this stuff. Holding grudges against nature is about as futile as it comes. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 2015 and 2016 were some of our warmest springs ever. I'd say we have cancelled those two out nicely. Yep. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Holding grudges against nature is about a futile as it comes. I know. If this climate was a person I'd kick it's a$$. And I've only hit two people in my entire life. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I know. If this climate was a person I'd kick it's a$$. And I've only hit two people in my entire life. That's not fair. The climate can't change who it is. It was born this way. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Maybe due for some normal springs?Normal is icky! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Have to wonder if this winter will sufficiently cash in our warm-a-thon karma of the last couple years. If it does, the Puget Sound residents have pretty decent grounds for a class action suit if February proves snow-starved but chilly. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 That's not fair. The climate can't change who it is. It was born this way. I just can't come to grips with suffering through 3 years of torching and then being denied snow in one of the colder Dec - mid Jan periods on record. Unimaginably frustrating. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I don't really care much what it does from Nov-Jan as long as its decent for a good part of spring, summer, and fall. Snow is nice but mostly you just slog though it to get to the other side. This winter has been exceptionally nice so far in terms of dry days and sunshine. Snow on the ground continously since the first part of December is a bonus as well. A really enjoyable number of days this winter with sunshine and snow on the ground which is the best winter weather possible. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 I don't really care much what it does from Nov-Jan as long as its decent for a good part of spring, summer, and fall. Snow is nice but mostly you just slog though it to get to the other side. This winter has been exceptionally nice so far in terms of dry days and sunshine. Snow on the ground is a bonus as well.Associated inner monologue: Jim thinks snow is a big deal. I'm gonna post about how it isn't a big deal despite receiving a lot of it. I'm a good person. 5 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 Associated inner monologue: Jim thinks snow is a big deal. I'm gonna post about how it isn't a big deal despite receiving a lot of it. I'm a good person. I really would not care much at all if I had received no snow this winter... all else being equal. Give me snow on Christmas Day and nothing else and I would be happy. I had almost nothing in 2013-14... and Eugene ended up with maybe 10 times as much as in my backyard and thought it was more fascinating than depressing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dairyd Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 So.....which rivers are going to flood? I'm thinking S fork Nooksack (minor), Snoqualmie (moderate), Wilson, Nehalem, maybe Chehalis (or upriver). further south could be more significant crests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 18, 2017 Report Share Posted January 18, 2017 When are you visiting DC? If I'm in town, grab a few beers with Fred and I. Oh, and don't forget to bring that PNW summer wx with you. That would actually be a fun idea. We are looking at the third week of June. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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