January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

FWIW, this was the warmest Inauguration Day since....1989.

 

Que the jaws music.

[FroYoBro]

Take this nonsense to the political thread. 

I just realized that the political thread is closed/locked.

 

[Jesse]

I just realized that the political thread is closed/locked.

 

First law he signed.

[BLI snowman]

Well the administration's first NAM doesn't look all that great...

 

Blame Trudeau.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I just realized that the political thread is closed/locked.

 

 

Must of gotten to crazy in there...I've kind of ignored politics for the most part over the past couple of months so I have not paid attention to that thread. I try to let it go for about 6 months after the election. I have been paying attention the past few days because of everything going on, but after about the middle of next week I will probably tun it out until Summer. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Basically.

 

I like to give my reasoning because if I don't I figure someone like Phil will ask about it.

I love your posts and really appreciate your insight. Thank you!

[Phil]

18z GFS at 96hrs is notably improved w/ wavetrain across entirety of NH. More amplified Eurasian ridge, equatorward shift with the Hawaiian anticyclone.

[Timmy]

18z GFS at 96hrs is notably improved w/ wavetrain across entirety of NH. More amplified Eurasian ridge, equatorward shift with the Hawaiian anticyclone.

took the words right out of my mouth

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really feels like spring today.

[Jesse]

Really feels like spring today.

 

The 40 and light rain at PDX just screams early April.

 

Been such a warm month overall to. Our long string of disappointing Januaries continues

[Phil]

took the words right out of my mouth

Man, almost gets there. Just need that Siberian vortex slightly farther S/SE and it'd go big downstream.

[Timmy]

The 40 and light rain at PDX just screams early April.

 

Been such a warm month overall to. Our long string of disappointing Januaries continues

Only made it to 37 here today

[Bryant]

Really feels like spring today.

So you'll be happy with rain while Seattle-north gets snow then? Great.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So you'll be happy with rain while Seattle-north gets snow then? Great.

 

I really don't care at this point. It was a nice 6 week run. Its over now. 50 and partly sunny here in Salem. 4th straight 50+ high south of PDX. We have definitely turned the corner and left deep winter behind. 

[Brennan]

So you'll be happy with rain while Seattle-north gets snow then? Great.

How's work today?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Going to go do some hiking this weekend, going to enjoy the warm weather now that it is here. Can't wait to see the sky cam show of wall to wall sunshine and warmth next week. 

[Phil]

Huge improvements on the d11-15 12z EPS mean, FWIW.

[Deweydog]

Huge improvements on the d11-15 12z EPS mean, FWIW.

Great!

 

Again!

[BLI snowman]

I really don't care at this point. It was a nice 6 week run. Its over now. 50 and partly sunny here in Salem. 4th straight 50+ high south of PDX. We have definitely turned the corner and left deep winter behind. 

 

I will pass your winter snowfall total before it's over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will pass your winter snowfall total before it's over.

 

You definitely will! 

[Brennan]

Stronger Niña/more favorable tropical forcing regime in 1989, but yeah window was what, 3 weeks? More like 10 days this time, IMO.

Well I believe the blast was very short lived, maybe a few days before a massive ridge parked overhead and kept things dry and cool/coldish for the first couple weeks of February. 

[Timmy]

I really don't care at this point. It was a nice 6 week run. Its over now. 50 and partly sunny here in Salem. 4th straight 50+ high south of PDX. We have definitely turned the corner and left deep winter behind.

Are you sleeping with tim or something ?

[Phil]

Well I believe the blast was very short lived, maybe a few days before a massive ridge parked overhead and kept things dry and cool/coldish for the first couple weeks of February.

Yeah, I'll have to back and look at it more carefully.

[snow_wizard]

Huge improvements on the d11-15 12z EPS mean, FWIW.

No doubt!

 

Looks about as good as it did before all of the cold earlier in the month.

[snow_wizard]

Are you sleeping with tim or something ?

Ewwww.

[snow_wizard]

Well I believe the blast was very short lived, maybe a few days before a massive ridge parked overhead and kept things dry and cool/coldish for the first couple weeks of February.

That blast was insane though. Super intense cold.

[snow_wizard]

Broke 50 today for the first time since late November. It was expecting too much to get through the whole week without doing it once.

[Tyler Mode]

Between my Battle Ground weather station (6 years) and my weather station in Minnehaha (21 years), I've never recorded more than 4 nights in the teens in any January. This month had 8...

[Deweydog]

Are you sleeping with tim or something ?

Perhaps the new "my location" is the Gee Creek Rest Area on I-5.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Perhaps the new "my location" is the Gee Creek Rest Area on I-5.

 

Kinky

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Between my Battle Ground weather station (6 years) and my weather station in Minnehaha (21 years), I've never recorded more than 4 nights in the teens in any January. This month had 8...

 

That is pretty amazing. I am guessing the previous 4 nights were 2 in 1996, 1 in 2004, and 1 in 2007?

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro looks more promising at day 10 than any other run I've seen lately.

[bainbridgekid]

That is pretty amazing. I am guessing the previous 4 nights were 2 in 1996, 1 in 2004, and 1 in 2007?

Pretty sure he meant he'd never had more than 4 in any one January, not a total of 4 in the last 27 years.

 

He doesn't live on the beach . . .

[snow_wizard]

Between my Battle Ground weather station (6 years) and my weather station in Minnehaha (21 years), I've never recorded more than 4 nights in the teens in any January. This month had 8...

 

I came up with 5 in Jan 2007.  Back in the days it actually snowed here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty sure he meant he'd never had more than 4 in any one January, not a total of 4 in the last 27 years.

 

He doesn't live on the beach . . .

I read that wrong, but PDX only had 4 or 5 nights in the teens in January during the past 27 years.

[Phil]

12z Euro looks more promising at day 10 than any other run I've seen lately.

Haha, I think it looks the worst. Verbatim, it's all going to slide east of the Rockies with that broad, less amplified anticyclonic train during the retrogressive phase.

[Deweydog]

Haha, I think it looks the worst. Verbatim, it's all going to slide east of the Rockies with that broad, less amplified anticyclonic train during the retrogressive phase.

Yeah, looks really disjointed. Have to have a pretty active imagination to think that state of affairs could get its act together soon after.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting evening. Had some hail earlier which covered the ground. Now some heavy rain falling and temp down to 35. 

[Phil]

Yeah, looks really disjointed. Have to have a pretty active imagination to think that state of affairs could get its act together soon after.

Yep, the 12z EPS control run is almost identical to the OP run through d10, and it's pretty blah in the d11-15 range west of the Rockies (ridge).

 

The EPS mean looks much improved, as it depicts a much improved early-amplification of the western Canadian ridge at the expense of the Aleutian ridge (initially).

[Jesse]

Are you sleeping with tim or something ?

 

Might be some backdoor action in the short term.