January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I read that wrong, but PDX only had 4 or 5 nights in the teens in January during the past 27 years.

Five total from 1983 to 2016:

 

1 in January 1984

2 in January 1996

1 in January 2004

1 in January 2007

 

This month alone has had 6. The most sub-20 lows at PDX for any January since 1969 amazingly, which had 8. Runner up was 1979 with 4.

[Deweydog]

Might be some backdoor action in the short term.

Followed by some overrunning slop.

[Jesse]

Broke 50 today for the first time since late November. It was expecting too much to get through the whole week without doing it once.

Only hit 40 here today for a 40/35 spread.

[Jesse]

Followed by some overrunning slop.

Sounds messy.

[MossMan]

Yeah, looks really disjointed. Have to have a pretty active imagination to think that state of affairs could get its act together soon after.

What happened to your really strong feelings?

[GHweatherChris]

Followed by some overrunning slop.

That can lead to unplanned pregnancy.

[Front Ranger]

Haha, I think it looks the worst. Verbatim, it's all going to slide east of the Rockies with that broad, less amplified anticyclonic train during the retrogressive phase.

 

Verbatim, the models have been showing the cold sliding east of the Rockies.

 

The more promising part to me is where the energy is cutting off in the Pacific. It's not an ideal setup, but looks better to me than most previous runs.

[Deweydog]

What happened to your really strong feelings?

I still feel good about early February.

 

Of course feelings only take you so far...

[Jesse]

I still feel good about early February.

 

Of course feelings only take you so far...

 

They just took two star-crossed lovers to Gee Creek. 

[Deweydog]

They just took two star-crossed lovers to Gee Creek.

Good point. And they just had a lot of snow and some VERY cold nights.

[Jesse]

Some pretty heavy rain here.

[Phil]

Verbatim, the models have been showing the cold sliding east of the Rockies.

 

The more promising part to me is where the energy is cutting off in the Pacific. It's not an ideal setup, but looks better to me than most previous runs.

I'd agree if that Aleutian ridge wasn't riding into the picture last minute. Verbatim, that looks like it'd simply result in a western ridge/omega block, no? Whole lotta wave dispersion there.

[Deweydog]

The incoming rain might finish off the snow fort.

[Jesse]

The incoming rain might finish off the snow fort.

 

Your groin will have the last laugh after all.

[Deweydog]

Your groin will have the last laugh after all.

Yeah, it's still tender.

[snow_wizard]

I'm certainly eager to see if the improving trend continues on the models tonight.  The 12z ECMWF ensemble was way better than previous runs.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Five total from 1983 to 2016:

 

1 in January 1984

2 in January 1996

1 in January 2004

1 in January 2007

 

This month alone has had 6. The most sub-20 lows at PDX for any January since 1969 amazingly, which had 8. Runner up was 1979 with 4.

 

Yes you can see how I misunderstood Tyler's post.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some seasonably cool weather while I am in Oklahoma next week. 

[Deweydog]

90's next weekend?

[Phil]

Poor GFS doesn't have a clue how to handle this.

[Deweydog]

The Canadian has it all figured out.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Might be some backdoor action in the short term.

I get the impression you're really into that.

[Jesse]

The radar almost looks like a poor man's 1/10/17 tonight.

[BLI snowman]

The radar almost looks like a poor man's 1/10/17 tonight.

 

A melty version is just what the doctor ordered!

[stuffradio]

Pretty ridgy period coming up soon if the 00z GFS is to be believed..

[snow_wizard]

It would appear the operational GFS is a huge outlier beyond day 10. It is in disagreement with all other models / ensembles (including its own ensemble). A retrogression and at least modestly chilly weather appear likely for early February.

[Trainwreck]

Ten days out is what the doc ordered BLI. Now if we can just get it to 228.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF operational sucks tonight. The models can't figure out how to bring those two ridges together. Ensemble means are the way to go right now.

[luvssnow_spokane]

The ECMWF operational sucks tonight. The models can't figure out how to bring those two ridges together. Ensemble means are the way to go right now.

Or maybe climo...

[Bryant]

People giving up on winter in January

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z GFS is a step forward

[IbrChris]

People giving up on winter in January

Well climatologically our coldest period is Dec 15-30...so it's a good bet the bulk of winter is behind us.

[Jesse]

06z GFS is a step forward

Towards spring?

[luvssnow_spokane]

People giving up on winter in January

Thank goodness you're here to help hold it all together and keep us in line. Go team!! #winter2017liveson...

[TT-SEA]

State of the snow this morning... pretty warm out there as well at 43 degrees to start the day.

 

[Bryant]

Thank goodness you're here to help hold it all together and keep us in line. Go team!! #winter2017liveson...

There's no holding you together, you're in a weenie league of your own this year

[SilverFallsAndrew]

State of the snow this morning... pretty warm out there as well at 43 degrees to start the day.

 

 

Wow I would imagine a morning low of 43 is more typical of late April or early May. A chilly 34 this morning here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Towards spring?

 

But just remember. Every day forward is another day closer to NEXT winter! And another step closer to our inevitable mortality!

[luvssnow_spokane]

There's no holding you together, you're in a weenie league of your own this year

Ahhh now your getting all sentimental.,, Stop!  I'm blushing. 

[MossMan]

35 here and mostly cloudy.