January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looking at the 06z ensembles there was a shift. 

[MossMan]

I bet things trend slightly south again and Northern Snohomish Co will be ground zero!

[FroYoBro]

So we can call it King Euro once again? 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So we can call it King Euro once again?

If it shows a snow storm.

[HighlandExperience]

I bet things trend slightly south again and Northern Snohomish Co will be ground zero!

12z shows brief snow midweek from Olympia north.

[Jesse]

12z shows brief snow midweek from Olympia north.

Score!

[Bryant]

Looks like either PDX/SW Washington gets slammed again, or we all miss out for the most part with the low going too far north. No in between this whole winter. The low might as well head north so my heating bill can go down

[MossMan]

Looks like either PDX/SW Washington gets slammed again, or we all miss out for the most part with the low going too far north. No in between this whole winter. The low might as well head north so my heating bill can go down

Yep...bring on the sun and warmth if we are looking at the same setup yet again.

[HighlandExperience]

Looks like either PDX/SW Washington gets slammed again, or we all miss out for the most part with the low going too far north. No in between this whole winter. The low might as well head north so my heating bill can go down

Around this time of the year I start worrying the winter is over for us.

[epiceast]

Looks like either PDX/SW Washington gets slammed again, or we all miss out for the most part with the low going too far north. No in between this whole winter. The low might as well head north so my heating bill can go down

I wonder if that's an unlikely coincidence all these times or if there is something that's forcing the low to go south.

[Deweydog]

I wonder if that's an unlikely coincidence all these times or if there is something that's forcing the low to go south.

Yes.

[Bryant]

I wonder if that's an unlikely coincidence all these times or if there is something that's forcing the low to go south.

SST's favoring further south?

[Jesse]

Around this time of the year I start worrying the winter is over for us.

I start worrying in late November.

[Jesse]

Wow the Euro really stunk.

[BLI snowman]

Wow the Euro really stunk.

 

Looks slightly colder next week.

 

39 degree rain would be possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

As expected winter ended early this year.

[Deweydog]

As expected winter ended early this year.

It ends early on in every year.

[Jesse]

It ends early on in every year.

March 1st is ONLY two months removed from New Years Day!

[MossMan]

Sun and warmth!!

[Jesse]

29 at PDX this morning!

[MossMan]

Perhaps we are in the model warm bias period?

[Jesse]

Euro ensembles don't offer much hope.

[MossMan]

Wow it's warm here at century Link field!

[HighlandExperience]

Wow it's warm here at century Link field!

Another sign of global warming

[MossMan]

Another sign of global warming

A great day to look at boats at the boat show anyway!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Perhaps we are in the model warm bias period?

I think we are in the "most likely" what will happen period. The Euro has spoken. Amen!

[Dave]

Yuck.  Oh well.  We did pretty well this winter down here.  Hopefully, the PS area can get a brief score next week.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to not have some spring fever this afternoon... gorgeous day.  

 

[FroYoBro]

Hard to not have some spring fever this afternoon... gorgeous day.  

 

I actually have to agree with your trolling for once. The sun came out a this afternoon for a bit and it felt great out there. 

[TT-SEA]

I actually have to agree with your trolling for once. The sun came out a this afternoon for a bit and it felt great out there. 

 

 

Not trolling... just enjoying all aspects of this January.   Its been a great month.    Lots of sun... snow on the ground for half the month... very few rainy days.  

 

54 at SEA today.  

[Jesse]

Not trolling... just enjoying all aspects of this January. Its been a great month. Lots of sun... snow on the ground for half the month... very few rainy days.

 

54 at SEA today.

48/29 at PDX today. Three degrees below average.

[BLI snowman]

Don't worry guys, winter will be back on November 15 as scheduled. 

[bainbridgekid]

Today was nice.

 

It's possible to enjoy some sunny relatively mild and pleasant weather while still maintaining your Snowaholics Anonymous membership.

[HighlandExperience]

Don't worry guys, winter will be back on November 15 as scheduled.

You mean March 5th

[Perturbed Member]

Hard to not have some spring fever this afternoon... gorgeous day.  

 

 

 

How snowy did Mt. Si look earlier this winter? Surprised to see basically no snow left even at 3000+ft there.

[TT-SEA]

How snowy did Mt. Si look earlier this winter? Surprised to see basically no snow left even at 3000+ft there.

That side faces the sun... it does not look snowy for very long after a snowfall.

[bainbridgekid]

How snowy did Mt. Si look earlier this winter? Surprised to see basically no snow left even at 3000+ft there.

There was a lot of snow up there just last weekend when we drove up to the Pass.

 

It's really steep and exposed to sun and wind though, so the slopes always seem to look less snowy than it really should be.

[Timmy]

How snowy did Mt. Si look earlier this winter? Surprised to see basically no snow left even at 3000+ft there.

There is more snow in the ditches near my house than on that mt.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty terrible model trends today. The ECMWF ensemble is very uninspiring for week two. Looks like a very favorable MJO wave for NW troughing is going to be completely wasted. I imagine we will see one more window of opportunity in late Feb / early March, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

The way I'm looking at things now, I just have to figure out how to get through another 5 years or so here without losing my mind and then we should be able to finally get out of here. Maybe in that period we will manage a couple of decent winters. I never thought I would truly give up on this climate, but I'm there now. I've never been more disillusioned than now. 5 years since we've had a decent snowfall and counting.

[snow_wizard]

There is more snow in the ditches near my house than on that mt.

You're just not seeing it.