January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Timmy]

Block is much stronger!

complex pattern.

[Jesse]

The Euro is still kind of a mess. Hopefully the ensembles look better.

[Jesse]

As of tomorrow it will have been two months since PDX last saw a high above 55. It's probably been awhile since that last happened.

[BLI snowman]

18z will trend towards the Euro. Rain everywhere.

[Jesse]

Euro ensembles look pretty similar to the operational through day 7. Maybe slightly better beyond.

 

That first shortwave on the 31st doesn't want to phase well (for us at least) with the developing cutoff low. Still time for things to shift in favor of the GFS of course.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z says a big NO!  Back to square 1... Are we having fun yet?

[MossMan]

18z says a big NO!  Back to square 1... Are we having fun yet?

Bring on the sun and warmth!!!!!!!

[luvssnow_spokane]

Bring on the sun and warmth!!!!!!!

Yep... Honestly, as fun as the recent GFS runs have been, I was doubtful since the other players were not showing anything close to it. The GFS now looks more like the Euro, which I think is a more realistic outcome at this point. bummer!

 

Super progressive pattern and ridge can never completely establish and lock in. So many things wrong with this run it is probably right. 

[Phil]

18z GFS/GEFS fails to complete the SSW, Eurasian W/M fluxes are capped and vortex tilt is from Hudson Bay in lower levels to Eurasian domain in upper levels.

 

So while it actually is a baroclinic-state vortex, and not a baratropic-state vortex, the tilt is actually reversed from where we want it, neutralizing mass/momentum transfer from Eurasia. Heat flux alone won't do it.

[luvssnow_spokane]

18z GFS/GEFS fails to complete the SSW, Eurasian W/M fluxes are capped and vortex tilt is from Hudson Bay in lower levels to Eurasian domain in upper levels.

 

So while it actually is a baroclinic-state vortex, and not a baratropic-state vortex, the tilt is actually reversed from where we want it, neutralizing mass/momentum transfer from Eurasia. Heat flux alone won't do it.

My words exactly...  Thanks Phil, and yes it was disappointing run to say the least

[MossMan]

And all becomes silent on the forum...the Oregonians are still coming off their winter bliss and don't really care if we get any more winter weather, and the western Washingtonians are massively depressed over yet another Puget Sound model failure. 

[luminen]

Everyone should just move to Anchorage...

 

Need snowshoes to walk on that particular sidewalk. 

[ShawniganLake]

Everyone should just move to Anchorage...

 

Need snowshoes to walk on that particular sidewalk.

Looks like the last patch of snow on my lawn is just about to disappear, will be gone by morning.

[richard mann]

Translation?

 

Sorry here "Bryant", but you're going to have to let me know just what more specifically you "need" "translated". 

 

— Once you do, I'll be more than happy to help you. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the last patch of snow on my lawn is just about to disappear, will be gone by morning.

 

What's that, 7-8 weeks straight you had snow on the ground? Pretty impressive...I've only had a couple streaks here longer than that. 

[DareDuck]

What's that, 7-8 weeks straight you had snow on the ground? Pretty impressive...I've only had a couple streaks here longer than that.

I'm at 7 straight weeks and should easily make it to 8. Pretty lucky to get a once in a 25 year winter in my second winter here.

[BLI snowman]

Looks like the last patch of snow on my lawn is just about to disappear, will be gone by morning.

Same here. It lived a good life.

[ShawniganLake]

What's that, 7-8 weeks straight you had snow on the ground? Pretty impressive...I've only had a couple streaks here longer than that.

Since December 5th. The only longer streak in my memory is 2008-09.

[MossMan]

Since December 5th. The only longer streak in my memory is 2008-09.

I had snow on the ground for 3 days straight!!!!

[Jesse]

Seems like this weak system splitting over the area is going to put a damper on chilly inversion potential going forward.

[MossMan]

I take it the 00z was not an improvement from the 18z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

no

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well Lala land

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Well the 0z looks very snowy for Vancouver Island, not so much elsewhere. The models picked up on the Oregon low solution about 4 days out and more or less stuck with it in terms of location. Things will probably look very different come Saturday, but with so many lows going south lately it's not necessarily a bad thing having them show it coming in to the north this far out.

[HighlandExperience]

[ShawniganLake]

Well the 0z looks very snowy for Vancouver Island, not so much elsewhere. The models picked up on the Oregon low solution about 4 days out and more or less stuck with it in terms of location. Things will probably look very different come Saturday, but with so many lows going south lately it's not necessarily a bad thing having them show it coming in to the north this far out.

I really have a good feeling about the first 1/3 of February up this way. Seems like a lot of potential for a decent event.

[snow_wizard]

No doubt the next couple of weeks are going to feature huge mood swings on the forum.  Pretty interesting to have a pattern with such potential and so much uncertainty last for so long.  I do like the fact the GFS and GEM both develop a SE ridge along with the Alaska block as we get into the 8 to 10 day period.  Both also show some intrusion of cold air from BC which is going to be an absolute ice box.  With the cold air so close in the 6 to 10 days period and such a strong block in play we could get something big on pretty short notice.

 

That having been said I hate that D**n cutoff low in the shorter term.

[snow_wizard]

I take it the 00z was not an improvement from the 18z.

 

It actually has a different window of opportunity work out for us.  Looking like we have two major windows now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I really have a good feeling about the first 1/3 of February up this way. Seems like a lot of potential for a decent event.

 

It's certainly nice to see the models consistently showing some snow next week, though the deviation is pretty massive. At this point even an overrunning event would be nice, but there is plenty of potential for more than that.

[Phil]

No doubt the next couple of weeks are going to feature huge mood swings on the forum. Pretty interesting to have a pattern with such potential and so much uncertainty last for so long. I do like the fact the GFS and GEM both develop a SE ridge along with the Alaska block as we get into the 8 to 10 day period. Both also show some intrusion of cold air from BC which is going to be an absolute ice box. With the cold air so close in the 6 to 10 days period and such a strong block in play we could get something big on pretty short notice.

 

That having been said I hate that D**n cutoff low in the shorter term.

I think the cutoff low is a microcosm of the issue(s) across the NPAC domain. There's going to be jet energy under that poleward breaking anticyclone.

 

This reminds me of November 2014 in some respects. This isn't going to be your classic Niña/-PNA/SE-ridge pattern. It will mostly be an EPO/NAM driven pattern, which can work so long as the sub-polar Pacific isn't overly hostile.

[snow_wizard]

I think the cutoff low is a microcosm of the issue(s) across the NPAC domain. There's going to be jet energy under that poleward breaking anticyclone.

 

This reminds me of November 2014 in some respects. This isn't going to be your classic Niña/-PNA/SE-ridge pattern. It will mostly be an EPO/NAM driven pattern, which can work so long as the sub-polar Pacific isn't overly hostile.

 

Ironically late Nov 2014 was the best snow event event I've had here since January 2012 in spite of the winter on the whole being an absolute horror show.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 0z ECMWF continues to differ from the GFS; doesn't show cold air anywhere near the PNW next week and no one below the alpine would see snow with what's shown. It will be interesting to see which of these wins out for early next week.

[HighlandExperience]

The 0z ECMWF continues to differ from the GFS; doesn't show cold air anywhere near the PNW next week and no one below the alpine would see snow with what's shown. It will be interesting to see which of these wins out for early next week.

Didn't GFS lead the way last time?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Didn't GFS lead the way last time?

 

It had a handle on the pattern about 4 days out and didn't waiver much from there. The ECMWF flip-flopped around a lot more before finally settling, it hasn't been a great model so far this year. The atmosphere has had a tendency to revert to a cold state over our region this winter, even our "ridge" has featured sub-freezing 850mb temperatures and been washed down substantially.

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Jesse]

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12z is looking a lot colder by next Monday and sure enough, following the theme of the winter, the low is coming in much further south.

[Jesse]

The 12z is looking a lot colder by next Monday and sure enough, following the theme of the winter, the low is coming in much further south.

I was thinking maybe the GFS would trend this way when I saw the 06z ensembles this morning. A distinct trend toward the colder solutions for next week again.

 

Tons of flip flopping for that period thanks to what I imagine must be uncertainty regarding the behavior of the cutoff.

 

Would be nice to see the Euro and Canadian solidly on board as well.

[ShawniganLake]

The 12z is looking a lot colder by next Monday and sure enough, following the theme of the winter, the low is coming in much further south.

GEM is looking colder this run too.