January 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the GEM is a step in the right direction...

[GHweatherChris]

SNOW! IMG_0472.PNG

Not here, next.

 

Such a disappointing winter so far.

 

Disclaimer: This is my opinion and I am not insinuating others agree, just exercising my right to say this winter has not been good in my opinion amd I would rather use my ice scraper to remove lots of snow and not just frost.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS can never quite get there...

[luvssnow_spokane]

GFS can never quite get there...

Might need a little blue pill.

[Brennan]

Forum be poppin tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Forum be poppin tonight.

 

It was earlier when we were talking about the coast.

[Timmy Supercell]

SNOW! IMG_0472.PNG

 

I guess winter returns February 1st.

 

Interested how much the next month produces. I have yet to actually see a winter where Dec-Jan-Feb all are good producers. 

[Jesse]

I guess winter returns February 1st.

 

Interested how much the next month produces. I have yet to actually see a winter where Dec-Jan-Feb all are good producers. 

 

Did it ever really leave? I though you saw a high in like the 20s today.

[Timmy Supercell]

Did it ever really leave? I though you saw a high in like the 20s today.

 

LOL first sentence was in humor.

 

I know I have winter 4 months out of the year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did it ever really leave? I though you saw a high in like the 20s today.

 

Yeah he has a current temp of 12.

 

29 here. Pretty chilly for early spring!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

LOL first sentence was in humor.

 

I know I have winter 4 months out of the year. 

 

Assignment! Go down to Klamath Lake and see how thick the ice is!

[Timmy Supercell]

Assignment! Go down to Klamath Lake and see how thick the ice is!

 

Will do in the morning. I'm sure it's been frozen since Jan 6th when we had -19. lol

 

Funny though our hill is still icy in spots, but most of downtown has very usable sidewalks and roads, so I'll do be my best to take a good morning walk.

 

lol but it might be Ewuana not Upper Klamath. (you alright with that? LOL)

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Will do in the morning. I'm sure it's been frozen since Jan 6th when we had -19. lol

 

Funny though our hill is still icy in spots, but most of downtown has very usable sidewalks and roads, so I'll do be my best to take a good morning walk.

 

lol but it might be Ewuana not Upper Klamath. (you alright with that? LOL)

 

I am okay with that. I know Ewuana is closer. Remember my brother used to live about 2 blocks from you. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

SNOW! IMG_0472.PNG

 

It would be pretty fleeting, more like a brief overrunning event. Obviously not going to happen verbatim but it's nice to see some snow showing up in the long range.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The previously predicted mega ridge parked right over the PNW isn't looking so healthy now it's coming into resolution.

[Dave]

I know the coastal discussion has pretty much run its course, but I thought I'd mention that the Olympic Park coast is spectacular.  As a young teen, my family took a backpacking trip directly on the "beach" that was around 20 - 25 miles and took us 3 days.  It was much more than a walk on the beach.  If I remember correctly, about half of it had annoying 6 inch rounded rocks, boulders, etc.  Despite that, it was probably the most rewarding camping trip I've ever had.  Giant haystacks, incredible remoteness, beauty everywhere.  The northern Washington coast is amazing, but it is not accessible unless you are willing to work for it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A lot of upper 20s this morning in the valley. Looks like PDX hit 27.

[Jesse]

Down to 26 at PDX, spicy.

 

25 with dense fog here, and some heavy frost. Today will be a good test of late January inversion theories.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 26 at PDX, spicy.

 

25 with dense fog here, and some heavy frost. Today will be a good test of late January inversion theories.

 

We'll see if the fog spreads as the sun comes up. Driving down and looking out over the valley the fog was not very extensive or deep where there was fog. But sometimes it spreads as the sun comes up. 

[GobBluth]

GFS can never quite get there...

if I had a dollar...

 

 

12z gfs alert.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

if I had a dollar...

 

 

12z gfs alert.

 

Its close...

[MossMan]

The ground and lakes are sure primed...as soon as the air temp drops to about 35 at night now since the previous cold spell the ground becomes hard and frosted over, and the 30 degree low last night was enough to refreeze about 40% of Lake Goodwin. Perfect time to get something...anything into the Puget Sound area.  

[ShawniganLake]

Its close...

Looking at the 12z 500mb ensemble there appears to be a westward shift in the push of Arctic air around day 8. Hopefully we see that represented on the spaghetti ensemble mean.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Its close...

meh...    We have seen and had "close" all winter. At face value this would be more of the same (at best) for most of the Puget Sound. Not very convincing but at least there is the possibility.

[Bryant]

The ground and lakes are sure primed...as soon as the air temp drops to about 35 at night now since the previous cold spell the ground becomes hard and frosted over, and the 30 degree low last night was enough to refreeze about 40% of Lake Goodwin. Perfect time to get something...anything into the Puget Sound area.

It's a good thing you don't need to worry about anymore cold or snow since you're ready for the heat and sun! The rest of us will enjoy the snow though

[Jesse]

Handful of ensemble members approaching -10c around the end of the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Handful of ensemble members approaching -10c around the end of the month.

 

Kind of interesting...

[bainbridgekid]

The ground and lakes are sure primed...as soon as the air temp drops to about 35 at night now since the previous cold spell the ground becomes hard and frosted over, and the 30 degree low last night was enough to refreeze about 40% of Lake Goodwin. Perfect time to get something...anything into the Puget Sound area.  

It will be interesting to see if the colder than normal lake temperatures persist into late Spring and early Summer.

[BLI snowman]

Things seem to be inverting today.

[MossMan]

It will be interesting to see if the colder than normal lake temperatures persist into late Spring and early Summer.

Lake Goodwin is fairly shallow (deepest spot is 50ft) so it responds fairly quickly to air temp changes, however yeah the first toe test in May might still be a little shocking! 

[MossMan]

It's a good thing you don't need to worry about anymore cold or snow since you're ready for the heat and sun! The rest of us will enjoy the snow though

And here I was going to invite you, Brennan, and BBKid out to walk on a frozen Lake Goodwin in a week or so when we get blasted... 

[Bryant]

Someone keeps pointing out ENSO neutral (even though its not), but the winter continues to behave as a La Ninã

 

http://i.imgur.com/drRqkXhh.jpg

[Bryant]

And here I was going to invite you, Brennan, and BBKid out to walk on a frozen Lake Goodwin in a week or so when we get blasted...

You should have joined us on Lake Whatcom and Cain Lake, was quite an adrenaline rush

 

How big is Goodwin?

[Jesse]

Things seem to be inverting today.

So it can still happen on 1/24. This is going into my future material for length of inversion season arguments notebook.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Meanwhile the valley is pretty well mixed and headed for 50.

[MossMan]

You should have joined us on Lake Whatcom and Cain Lake, was quite an adrenaline rush

 

How big is Goodwin?

It would have been awesome to join you guys! I walked out to just past my dock during the height of the ice thickness but I could have crossed no problem. Lake Goodwin is 535 acres and has about 5.4 miles of shoreline. 

[Deweydog]

So it can still happen on 1/24. This is going into my future material for length of inversion season arguments notebook.

Make sure you keep that notebook in a safe space.

[HighlandExperience]

The ground and lakes are sure primed...as soon as the air temp drops to about 35 at night now since the previous cold spell the ground becomes hard and frosted over, and the 30 degree low last night was enough to refreeze about 40% of Lake Goodwin. Perfect time to get something...anything into the Puget Sound area.

Maybe next November.

[Timmy Supercell]

Well, lakes sure are frozen. And I see KLMT got to a low of 8. A bit under what was forecast.

 

Maybe next November.

 

OR next week............. 

[Timmy]

Thick fog today! Just about the thickest it's been since I have lived here the last 3 years. Just about 1500' thick. Curious to know if this is how most days over the next week will be?