January 14th-17th Winter Storm Cocktail

[GDR]

so thankful it has trended to a mainly rain event here

looks like all rain

[Snowlover76]

looks like all rain

Yup.

[educatorjen]

Omaha too?

[Jaycee]

Yup.

Boooooo. Lol I wanted to see some hefty ice accumulations, haven't seen those for a long time. I can't find the energy to cheer for just rain in January. Gross.

 

 

EDIT: WPC still has us at a 90% chance of seeing greater than .25".....

[educatorjen]

I wanted some type of a weather event... not just rain. Selfish I know

[Snowlover76]

Boooooo. Lol I wanted to see some hefty ice accumulations, haven't seen those for a long time. I can't find the energy to cheer for just rain in January. Gross.

 

 

EDIT: WPC still has us at a 90% chance of seeing greater than .25".....

I enjoy electricity. I went through almost a month with no power a few years ago with the hurricanes on the east coast.

[gosaints]

GFS is colder

[NEJeremy]

GFS is colder

Yeah the 12Z never has Omaha out of the ice/snow. If we had any snow on the ground here in Nebraska, than we would really be screwed on the ice. Cold air moves out slower but curious how slow it will move out with no snow on the ground. It was amazing to see the difference in the 0Z Euro last night. Had us getting up to 6 degrees celcius at the surface by Monday afternoon, when before it had us barely making freezing at the surface.

[Snowlover76]

howd the 12z look for Lincoln? 

[St Paul Storm]

GFS is colder

You get a nice hit down there on that run. Colder for sure.

[Tom]

12z GFS...

 

ICE:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011312/114/zr_acc.us_c.png

 

SNOW:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011312/114/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[FarmerRick]

10:1 ratio

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2017011312/102/sn10_acc.us_c.png

[St Paul Storm]

So the 0z Euro and 12z GEM went west. 12z GFS went east. Makes sense....

[jaster220]

I enjoy electricity. I went through almost a month with no power a few years ago with the hurricanes on the east coast.

 

Not sure which is worse, no power in cold season or no power when it's stiflingly excessive southern heat? LOL, with you on this - electricity is nice. Transformer blew one evening last July when it was kinda warm and sticky from the T-showers. Our street was out for maybe 6 hrs as it slowly got dark outside - no fans, no a/c, no lights, NO fun!!

[Snowlover76]

Not sure which is worse, no power in cold season or no power when it's stiflingly excessive southern heat? LOL, with you on this - electricity is nice. Transformer blew one evening last July when it was kinda warm and sticky from the T-showers. Our street was out for maybe 6 hrs - no fans, no a/c, no lights, NO fun!!

Worst part is having no water like we did a while back. No power means the well doesn't pump.

[gosaints]

The wave will now lose good sampling as it goes over the open ocean and then through mexico.  Probably not another good sample until very late in the game

[NEJeremy]

How's the Euro look?

[Hoosier]

The wave will now lose good sampling as it goes over the open ocean and then through mexico. Probably not another good sample until very late in the game

Hopefully there has already been enough upper air sampling to prevent any radical shifts, but you have a point. The Mexican ob network is not nearly as dense as the U.S. RAOB network, and I can think of a few times where there were drastic bodily shifts in track once a wave emerged from our southern neighbor.

[WeatherFanOMA]

Must not be good, I thought there would be much more going on in this forum

[Jaycee]

Must not be good, I thought there would be much more going on in this forum

Not the case at all, I just think no one has access to the EURO maps lol

[NEJeremy]

Omaha NWS has bumped us back up to .3-.4" of ice but has kept the watch in place and said changes still possible

[Grizzcoat]

NAM with a pretty big shift N with FZRA into MN

[St Paul Storm]

NAM with a pretty big shift N with FZRA into MN

 

Yikes. SE MN crushed.

[NEJeremy]

Holy dry punch really getting up into eastern Nebraska on the 0Z NAM. basically cuts off precip shortly after noon. The 4kNAM is also much lighter on precip and shows rain as the primary precip falling despite surface temperatures at 29 degrees and the sounding saying freezing rain as the precip type. Maybe because it's light enough, it shows it as rain on the precip maps?

[Grizzcoat]

I saw the same thing and wondered about it. 00Z Gfs much less FZRA it appears for C.IA

[clintbeed1993]

Models are not gunna be very accurate tonight imho.

[Grizzcoat]

Yep-- NWS has 41F for the high on Monday at DSM-- it is nowhere near that on the recent run of the GFS. A few degress-- heck even a few tenths of a degree is going to make all the difference.

[Naddan85]

Jim Flowers has a good video on his Facebook page for Omaha showing that it could be warm enough at the right heights for primarily cold rain, at least in the metro. Latest GFS seems to have cut down amounts on everything in our area.

[NEJeremy]

GFS seems to be fighting dry air at the beginning too as precip doesn't really break out until 12Z Monday.

[NEJeremy]

and then you have the 0Z Canadian that is still going bonkers with the amounts. Over 3" of freezing rain in the panhandles and lots of freezing rain up into Nebraska

[Grizzcoat]

I think the CMC is in la la land, but who knows. ice storms are a thing of there own.

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE says what dry air??

[ToastedRavs]

Grabbing some beers with grizzcoat right now before the ice, but the Euro doesn't look good for Des Moines or Omaha. Looking at numbers on phone. Will post when home. Huge ice storm with qpfs more than .75" for both metros

[Snowlover76]

Grabbing some beers with grizzcoat right now before the ice, but the Euro doesn't look good for Des Moines or Omaha. Looking at numbers on phone. Will post when home. Huge ice storm with qpfs more than .75" for both metros

how did it look for Lincoln 

[Grizzcoat]

Good times Ravs!!!  Pretty sad we get pumped for an ice event. Oh well - at least it's something.

I have broke these down into 3 hour segments and a running total precip to better pinpoint things--

I will do DSM,OMA and LNK and let Ravs do some others as he was still at the bar when I left.

 

DSM (actually about 30 mins W-- but close enough)

MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.1     2.3    1026      74      93    0.06     567     546   
MON 03Z 16-JAN  -1.4     3.3    1025      87      96    0.14     567     547   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.6     3.7    1024      91      86    0.20     567     548   
MON 09Z 16-JAN  -1.7     5.1    1023      94      39    0.21     566     548   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.7     5.4    1021      97      77    0.22     565     549   
MON 15Z 16-JAN  -1.3     5.6    1019      98      97    0.37     564     549   
MON 18Z 16-JAN   0.1     5.5    1015      99      98    0.62     561     549   
MON 21Z 16-JAN   1.6     5.6    1011      99      45    0.69     557     548   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN   2.5     4.7    1010      99      52    0.70     554     546   
TUE 03Z 17-JAN   1.5     2.8    1009      99      93    0.72     551     544   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN   0.5     2.2    1009      99      87    0.78     550     542

 

OMA

SUN 21Z 15-JAN  -1.3     1.9    1026      84      98    0.07     566     546   
MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.7     2.8    1025      90      99    0.18     566     547   
MON 03Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.1    1024      92      95    0.31     566     548   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.5    1023      94      56    0.33     566     548   
MON 09Z 16-JAN  -1.6     5.1    1021      96      61    0.35     565     548   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.3     5.1    1018      97      91    0.38     563     549   
MON 15Z 16-JAN  -0.6     4.5    1017      98      99    0.61     562     548   
MON 18Z 16-JAN   0.6     4.9    1013      99      86    0.77     558     547   
MON 21Z 16-JAN   1.1     3.6    1010      99      67    1.00     553     545   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN   0.1     2.2    1011      99      75    1.04     551     542   
TUE 03Z 17-JAN  -0.6     1.1    1012      96      64    1.05     551     541   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -0.8    -0.3    1013      92      79    1.08     553     543

 

LNK

SUN 03Z 15-JAN  -2.8     1.5    1033      34      68    0.01     571     545   
SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -3.1     1.1    1032      41      85    0.01     571     545   
SUN 09Z 15-JAN  -2.5     0.5    1031      47      87    0.01     570     545   
SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -2.6     0.9    1030      60      93    0.02     569     545   
SUN 15Z 15-JAN  -2.4     1.0    1030      71      91    0.02     569     546   
SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -2.0     1.9    1028      78      94    0.05     569     546   
SUN 21Z 15-JAN  -2.3     3.7    1025      88      98    0.17     567     547   
MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.6     3.6    1025      93      97    0.29     567     547   
MON 03Z 16-JAN  -2.6     4.6    1024      95      76    0.36     566     548   
MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.4     5.3    1022      97      54    0.36     566     548   
MON 09Z 16-JAN  -2.2     5.3    1020      97      89    0.39     565     549   
MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.9     5.7    1017      98      99    0.45     562     549   
MON 15Z 16-JAN  -1.0     4.6    1015      99      96    0.69     560     548   
MON 18Z 16-JAN   0.2     4.5    1013      99      75    0.78     556     545   
MON 21Z 16-JAN   0.4     2.4    1011      98      66    0.83     550     542   
TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -0.6     1.2    1013      95      83    0.88     549     539   
TUE 03Z 17-JAN  -1.0     0.1    1014      92      91    0.91     553     542   
TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -1.6    -0.5    1015      88      66    0.93     555     543

[Grizzcoat]

Some NE peeps might break out of the doldrums--

 

[ToastedRavs]

Here's OLU, Nebraska: Like above in 3 hr increments with a running total precip

SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -0.4     0.4    1028      56      92    0.00     568     546    SUN 21Z 15-JAN  -1.9     1.2    1025      82      97    0.03     566     546    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -2.5     2.2    1024      91      98    0.15     565     546    MON 03Z 16-JAN  -2.8     2.1    1024      93      97    0.35     565     547    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.7     3.8    1023      95      98    0.41     565     547    MON 09Z 16-JAN  -2.7     3.6    1021      96      92    0.46     564     547    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -2.5     4.9    1018      96      97    0.53     562     548    MON 15Z 16-JAN  -2.0     3.4    1017      96      98    0.70     560     547    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.2     2.8    1015      96      95    0.89     557     545    MON 21Z 16-JAN  -1.0     0.8    1013      95      76    0.96     553     542    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -1.3    -0.7    1014      92      70    1.03     552     541    TUE 03Z 17-JAN  -1.5    -0.5    1015      90      80    1.04     553     542    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -3.4    -0.7    1016      87      90    1.06     554     541    

Sioux City, IA

SUN 21Z 15-JAN   2.4     1.4    1025      45      84    0.00     564     545    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -1.0     2.2    1024      70      91    0.01     565     545    MON 03Z 16-JAN  -1.8     2.4    1024      89      99    0.08     564     545    MON 06Z 16-JAN  -2.0     2.3    1024      92      98    0.24     564     546    MON 09Z 16-JAN  -2.0     3.1    1022      93      95    0.33     564     547    MON 12Z 16-JAN  -1.9     3.7    1020      94      92    0.37     563     547    MON 15Z 16-JAN  -1.8     4.1    1019      95      94    0.44     562     547    MON 18Z 16-JAN  -1.2     2.6    1016      95      96    0.60     559     546    MON 21Z 16-JAN  -0.9     0.8    1014      96      96    0.76     555     544    TUE 00Z 17-JAN  -1.1     0.5    1014      95      92    0.85     553     542    TUE 03Z 17-JAN  -1.2    -1.0    1014      95      97    0.93     552     541    TUE 06Z 17-JAN  -1.9    -0.8    1014      93      98    1.05     552     541    TUE 09Z 17-JAN  -4.5    -0.7    1016      88      95    1.06     552     540    TUE 12Z 17-JAN  -6.2    -0.7    1017      83      88    1.07     551     538   

Topeka, KS

SAT 09Z 14-JAN  -3.6     5.6    1036      69      86    0.03     576     548    SAT 12Z 14-JAN  -3.1     4.6    1036      62      41    0.04     576     548    SAT 15Z 14-JAN  -2.4     4.2    1037      54      35    0.04     577     548    SAT 18Z 14-JAN  -0.9     3.7    1036      46      46    0.04     576     548    SAT 21Z 14-JAN   0.1     2.8    1034      43      51    0.04     575     549    SUN 00Z 15-JAN  -0.4     2.2    1034      44      70    0.04     575     548    SUN 03Z 15-JAN  -1.0     3.8    1034      51      88    0.05     575     549    SUN 06Z 15-JAN  -1.9     3.6    1033      82      98    0.15     574     549    SUN 09Z 15-JAN  -2.0     3.9    1031      86     100    0.19     573     549    SUN 12Z 15-JAN  -2.0     3.8    1030      88     100    0.33     573     549    SUN 15Z 15-JAN  -1.9     5.4    1030      91      92    0.44     573     549    SUN 18Z 15-JAN  -1.2     5.9    1028      93      82    0.48     572     550    SUN 21Z 15-JAN  -0.7     7.0    1024      95      78    0.52     570     551    MON 00Z 16-JAN  -0.9     6.9    1023      98      60    0.53     569     551    MON 03Z 16-JAN  -0.8     6.3    1022      99      27    0.54     569     551    MON 06Z 16-JAN   0.0     6.7    1020      99      80    0.54     568     552    MON 09Z 16-JAN   1.9     8.3    1016      99      99    0.73     566     553    MON 12Z 16-JAN   5.0     7.6    1012      99      91    1.01     563     553    MON 15Z 16-JAN   7.1     6.7    1011      98      46    1.09     560     551    MON 18Z 16-JAN  12.4     5.3    1009      84      65    1.10     556     548    MON 21Z 16-JAN  12.0     2.1    1007      70      79    1.11     553     547    TUE 00Z 17-JAN   5.9     1.1    1011      94      75    1.14     552     544    TUE 03Z 17-JAN   2.8    -0.4    1013      95      39    1.15     556     545    

[Grizzcoat]

That's downright going to screw some stuff up in OLU and SUX --

DSM just updated there ice map-- increased, so probably going with the Euro as they did with temps for Monday on the 12Z run had 41F-- now maybe 37 with more falling qpf with temps colder.

 

 

 

 

 

[ToastedRavs]

What's interesting or perplexing on that map is that they only have SUX at .11".  Granted it is out of their DMA but I am pretty sure this is a model with just the state cut out.  And it says until 6pm Monday.  Kind of odd given the QPF output

[St Paul Storm]

MPX pulled the trigger on a WSW. Range of possibilities include up to 6" of snow or 1-3" of snow along with 0.25" of ice. The watch may be extended southeast as well.