February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

1968-69 and 1949-50, although the late January events in both years were spread out over several days. And then 1915-16 before that.

 

Yep, so I was right with my guess for the past 100 years.

 

Though yeah, not necessarily one storm with both of those.

[HighlandExperience]

I dunno. We will have a setup with a lot of low level cold just north of us and backwash northerly winds behind a departing low. It might be colder than you think.

We are getting screwed by the nam. Really hope that is wrong

[seattleweatherguy]

Wait for the euro and pray

[Tenochtitlan]

Florence Oregon gets a foot of snow, Seattle almost nothing. Hahahaha that would never happen. or would it. 

[TT-SEA]

I dunno. We will have a setup with a lot of low level cold just north of us and backwash northerly winds behind a departing low. It might be colder than you think.

You need to trust the ECMWF way more for temperatures. You have access to it.

[HighlandExperience]

Wait for the euro and pray

We need the Euro to hold its ground and have everything shift north by 50 miles right before the event.

[Heavy Snow]

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS is really warm for Sunday (46) and Monday (low of 34 and up 37 by 10 a.m.) in Seattle. Same thing happened on New Years and it was discounted but it should not have been.

[Tenochtitlan]

I feel like this winter is a cruel and vindictive old man who hates Seattle 

[ShawniganLake]

[Perturbed Member]

The crappy rpm shows no snow for Seattle. Wtf

 

 

I really don't get why some models show such a sharp cut off in precip/snow to the north. We've got a setup with a low sliding down BC, a low in NE WA and the low from the SW. That seems a bit suspect to me. I think the snow should extend pretty far north. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

We are getting screwed by the nam. Really hope that is wrong

 

Of all the models it was the last to give in and go with a cold trend for Sunday - Tuesday was the NAM. It seems better for 12-24 hour forecasts than 24+ hour forecasts.

[Perturbed Member]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017020400/nam3km_asnow_nwus_61.png

 

3km NAM still puts the bullseye for snow well south of PDX. 

[stuffradio]

How much snow you see today?

Not too much, 1-2" so far.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with about 1.5" of snow on the ground here, but it looks like the band has slid just to the north. If some of the models are to be believed this might be all we get for this event.

[Dave]

If this verifies, I'll eat a sock.

[TT-SEA]

I am torn between the usual northward trend in the models that we have always seen and come to trust over the years... and the tendency for things to shift south this winter.

[Bryant]

I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer.

 

I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyone

[BLI snowman]

If this verifies, I'll eat a sock.

 

Eat it with your fork.

[Perturbed Member]

I am torn between the usual northward trend in the models that we have always seen and come to trust over the years... and the tendency for things to shift south this winter.

 

Go with the models trending south and then last second 25-50 mile jog north.

[Deweydog]

He's correct that right now, it appears to be the best setup for Seattle area snow yet this winter.

 

The ultra-conservative Seattle NWS is going with 1-3" three days out. That tells you something.

The snow is one thing, but this flash freeze notion is pretty out there. No matter who gets significant accumulations with the baroclinic madness, Monday will be quite a sloppy mess.

[TT-SEA]

The snow is one thing, but this flash freeze notion is pretty out there. No matter who gets significant accumulations with the baroclinic madness, Monday will be quite a sloppy mess.

 

No doubt about that.

[luminen]

I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer.

 

I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyone

 

It's not the models' fault. It's the current system state and plain bad luck. 

[Jesse]

I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer.

 

I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyone

The models don't control the weather.

 

And haven't you been getting snow today?

[BLI snowman]

The brilliant RPM

 

[TT-SEA]

I've reached my breaking point for this winter I think. I let the weather affect me more than it should, and Brennan, Mattias, and Phil have had to listen to me b*tch way too often. Since I've started watching the models back in 2010, this winter has disgusted me the most. Not due to the lack of snow, but how the lack of snow has been achieved. It's not like we haven't had chances, or that the models haven't shown some great storms, it's that in the end, they continue to f*ck us over and over. The new south trend the models decided to collectively develop this year has truly been a disappointment for many. The rich get richer.

 

I hope I'm just a jinx, because maybe leaving the forum for a while will bring the members that deserve some snow a little luck. Good luck everyone

 

 

Look at this way... reality is reality.   The models could have been ridiculously south all winter with the usual trend north instead.  But the end result would be the same either way.  This way we have had more fun in tracking the events.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The brilliant RPM

 

Spring-Break-film-images-e59d5f25-7316-4f4d-8023-e2cefcc3e34.jpg

 

Was just about to post this....Would be a once in 25-30 year event if it verified...

[HighlandExperience]

Was just about to post this....Would be a once in 25-30 year event if it verified...

Good thing the rpm is never right

[Kayla]

The brilliant RPM

 

RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg

 

That is ridiculous. And so is this...

 

[Perturbed Member]

The brilliant RPM

 

RPM_72_SNOW_00z.jpg

 

 

Every single run of this thing has been trending higher and higher for PDX. Too bad it is the RPM. 

[Perturbed Member]

00z GFS has the low heading in a bit further north it seems. 

[Kayla]

Good thing the rpm is never right

 

Tough odds against the 3km NAM within 36 hours though. It's been locked in during the short term all winter.

[HighlandExperience]

00z GFS has the low heading in a bit further north it seems.

Yup.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The center of the offshore low on Sunday looks pretty far offshore, more so than any recent GFS run. This is far from resolved, it's still an unstable pattern. Remember not long ago the models did away with the prospect of snow after tonight entirely.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS looks a little better for Seattle. Doesn't look any worse for PDX IMO. 

[HighlandExperience]

The center of the offshore low on Sunday looks pretty far offshore, more so than any recent GFS run. This is far from resolved, it's still an unstable pattern. Remember not long ago the models did away with the prospect of snow after tonight entirely.

Noticed that. Wonder how that's going to impact things later on.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The GFS resolution isn't good enough to show the layer going isothermal...This run looks better for PDX than the 18z to me...Heavier precip for PDX and the valley. 

[Brennan]

For the record there has been no snow in bellingham today since before 9am. 32* rain, all day.

[FroYoBro]

The GFS resolution isn't good enough to show the layer going isothermal...This run looks better for PDX than the 18z to me...Heavier precip for PDX and the valley. 

 

I'm really surprised it still shows it being rain at hour 66 with heights that low, 

[Jesse]

For the record there has been no snow in bellingham today since before 9am. 32* rain, all day.

 

BLI is still reporting snow.