February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[bainbridgekid]

Actually . . . The 18z spits out about a foot for Seattle counting the snow during the day tomorrow.

 

That's a lot of green . . .

 

 

 

[Jesse]

Hasn't happened yet. And the low is south.......off the coast. 12z is actually doing real well with things.

 

No way in hell.

[Front Ranger]

18z GFS looks even wetter, but a tad warmer.

[snow maniac]

Snowing good here, just drove to Shelton and back and is starting to stick,

[Front Ranger]

12z Euro and GEM showed a heart stopping southward shift this morning which hasn't really panned out.

 

Last minute wobble, but I'm talking big picture. They led the way overall in the past 3 days.

 

And too soon to say what exactly pans out.

[westcoastexpat]

Just an FYI, we ended up with mostly 5:1 ratios up here. Models were outputting like 60 cm for metro van but most had about 25-30. Something to keep in mind... 10:1 ratio is usually pretty poor when it's marginal.

[MossMan]

Hasn't happened yet. And the low is south.......off the coast. 12z is actually doing real well with things.

ok McFly.

[Prairiedog]

4km WRF indicates the column goes isothermal for PDX around 1-2PM and then stays that way with no warm nose. 

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/kpdx.09.0000.snd.gif

 

 

Would be nice, but the HRRR is making me  quite nervous. Very quickly taking away all snow from PDX. 

I'll believe that when I see it. 

[MossMan]

18z GFS looks even wetter, but a tad warmer.

can't afford warmer...not good.

[Guest Sounder]

can't afford warmer...not good.

Don't worry, it's all going to flash freeze soon anyway.

[Perturbed Member]

I'll believe that when I see it. 

 

Yeah, not happening. WRF was too aggressive in cooling us down. 

[Front Ranger]

can't afford warmer...not good.

 

It's just slightly warmer with 925s in east Pierce/King counties.

 

Looks better for your area, anyway.

[Deweydog]

School MAY very well end in June!

[FroYoBro]

It has gone up a degree here as the moisture plume is lifting north. So close, but so far away. 

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS is probably really glad they didn't go for a winter storm warning. 

[HighlandExperience]

Actually . . . The 18z spits out about a foot for Seattle counting the snow during the day tomorrow.

 

That's a lot of green . . .

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_7.png

According to dome buster that's fake

[BLI snowman]

It has gone up a degree here as the moisture plume is lifting north. So close, but so far away. 

 

It's fun watching the cold/warm battle on radar, you can pretty much see where the line is based on the stronger returns.

[Guest Dome Buster]

It has gone up a degree here as the moisture plume is lifting north. So close, but so far away.

You are jumping the gun. Just relax and watch how things pan out later this evening.

 

Remember this post.

[Jesse]

Astoria has switched to light snow.

[Front Ranger]

Eh, maybe a degree or so warmer at the 850 and 925 levels but surface temps are actually shown to be a degree or two colder than 12z.

 

I assume because of precip rates being heavier? Or does it actually show more low level northerly outflow?

[snow maniac]

Snowing good here, just drove to Shelton and back and is starting to stick,

Still not quite below freezing yet though been stuck at 34

[Geos]

Wow, I step away from the weather for a day or two and a snowstorm shows up! 

Down to 35.0 here - just under 500 ft in elevation.

[Guest Sounder]

Definitely the occasional flake mixing in here now. Good to see this early right in the middle of the city.

[luminen]

went for a drive up Lonsdale and up into some side streets and did a little sliding in the slush as people glared at me. 

[Guest Dome Buster]

FroYoBro, I am thinking it turns to all snow around 5 based on the satellite picture and surrounding observations.

 

Just be patient.

[Deweydog]

FroYoBro, I am thinking it turns to all snow around 5 based on the satellite picture and surrounding observations.

 

Just be patient.

I'm glad at least SOMEONE has a really good handle on this.

[Heavy Snow]

All rain here in SW Gresham at 550 feet. I'm expecting nothing and anything will be a surprise.

[BLI snowman]

FroYoBro, I am thinking it turns to all snow around 5 based on the satellite picture and surrounding observations.

 

Just be patient.

 

5am is definitely possible.

 

The Portland area will largely see rain all evening and into the night, outside of the line from Forest Grove to Scappoose to Woodland.

[Deweydog]

Modsnow and 32 at Astoria.

 

Sexy.

[Geos]

Seeing a few wet flakes now.

[Jesse]

Modsnow and 32 at Astoria.

 

Sexy.

#deweyspecial

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 18z shows a slightly more robust southern low, about in line with what you can see shaping up in the current satellite presentation. The southern low is clearly rapidly strengthening. A stronger more dominant southern low would certainly extend the precipitation shield further north, putting some areas north of Seattle back in play. Seattle-Olympia continues to be a safe bet for some of the greatest totals.

[Guest Dome Buster]

I'm glad at least SOMEONE has a really good handle on this.

Take your break already...sheesh.

[FroYoBro]

FroYoBro, I am thinking it turns to all snow around 5 based on the satellite picture and surrounding observations.

 

Just be patient.

Do I owe you money for this forecast? 

[BLI snowman]

Temp has actually dropped to 33.4 here, with very heavy rain. That 925mb layer doing its thing.

[bainbridgekid]

It is suddenly all wet snow here as the radar continues to look better and better.

 

Not close to sticking yet, but it was still 90% rain about 15 minutes ago.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Do I owe you money for this forecast?

 

Nope, just what I'm seeing based off all the information available.

[FroYoBro]

Nope, just what I'm seeing based off all the information available.

Alright, we'll see!

[TT-SEA]

Snow just north of Hwy 26 in North Plains...

 

http://jamesgilbertco.com/weather/netcam.jpg

[Geos]

34.8° here now. Probably start seeing the snow once the daylight starts to fade.

 

20z HRRR...

 

 

NAMX model