February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

As most of the other posters on here from the PDX are crying, I will sit here and wait for the bent back occlusion that will occur later.  That low is definitely going well south of Portland.  We are getting a heavy snow band later tonight.  Models have showed it in one form or another for the last 3 days.

 

Patience my friends.

Maybe instead of cold rain, you'll get colder rain.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Light snow in hoquiam

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friends brother lives near Puyallup, claims he has 4"

[The Swamp]

Which place do you live at?

Valley

[HighlandExperience]

My friends brother lives near Puyallup, claims he has 4"

 

I believe it. The hill up there towards Graham had 2 inches this morning. 

[Front Ranger]

McChord now down to 32 with snow.

[Deweydog]

34 at PDX.

 

38 at Troutdale.

 

Density.

[MossMan]

Everett reporting snow now.

 

Winds have also switched to N at SEA. Should see a lot of places switch over to straight snow over the next couple hours.

38 and raining here!

[Chewbacca Defense]

Wow...just got a text that Bellingham Schools has already cancelled class tomorrow!  I must admit, I am surprised the made the call this early (even with the snow on the ground.)  I tried to take my son out to practice driving  in the snow, and all of the main streets are bare and wet, and the neighborhoods are mostly bare and wet.

 

Kinda hard to teach him how to drive in the snow on bare roads.  We finally had to go out into the county to find some snowy roads.  I was not sure how it was going to go considering he did $2k damage to my car on wet roads, but he actually did really well.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Temperature fall 3 degrees in last 45 minutes.  33 now, with snow just starting to mix in.

[crf450ish]

2" of new snow at my house today. NWS calling for 3-5" for my area....kinda getting tired of plowing lol. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sorry to hear that man. Thoughts and prayers to you and your wife, as well as your pastor's family and congregation.

 

My wife works at the Cardiology office here in town, and this happens alot. She hates it when I go out to shovel our driveway.

The saying make every day like you last is the truth. I never understood it until i lost my lady. I honestly would trade everything i own in this world to spend 1 more day with her. All the days we have with our loved ones most of us take for granted. I have realized this the hard way. So all you nuts on here like me go give your significant other a kiss and love on them right now!!

[GHweatherChris]

Light snow in hoquiam

It's sticking really good here, moderate snow falling.

[Timmy]

No grief here. It is very obvious I will receive at least 5 inches overnight. I'm not worried one bit.

only cause I'm coming over to Netflix and chill

[bainbridgekid]

Sticking snow has reached McChord Air Force Base just South of Tacoma.

 

 

My sister sent me a video of moderate wet snow at her place in West Tacoma but nothing sticking there yet.

[jaya]

Light snow now in south Everett. Not yet sticking.

[MikeInEverett]

Gonna be looking out the window basically every minute during the Super Bowl waiting for the changeover to snow. Gonna be fun!

[snow_wizard]

Snowing pretty good here now and just starting to stick.

 

The temperature is only falling very slowly though.

[Blizzard777]

34.6 and so close to all snow Federal way

[bainbridgekid]

Snowing pretty good here now and just starting to stick.

 

The temperature is only falling very slowly though.

Tough to get much of a temperature fall during peak afternoon heating without heavy precip in early February.

 

I fully expect things to quickly whiten up as we lose solar radiation around 5 PM.

[TT-SEA]

Heavier precip moving north pretty fast... looks like it will be letting up here soon.

 

Very little accumulation here in the last few hours... very wet snow.

[bainbridgekid]

I may end up breaking my neck turning back and forth between the Superbowl on TV and the snow out my window.

[Perturbed Member]

Getting snowy on the Astoria bridge

 

[GHweatherChris]

32.6 degrees here, snowing really coming down now.

[snow_wizard]

Kind of interesting how the ensemble mean has turned pretty chilly overall for the next week now. Also looking cooler by the 20th again. Very possible February will average solidly below normal to go along with the cold Dec and Jan.

[snow_wizard]

Coming down really good and the temp dropped another 0.2 to 34.9.

[Jbolin]

Getting snowy on the Astoria bridge

 

 

Getting snowy on the Astoria bridge

 

Just went over this bridge yesterday on our way back from Lincoln City. Told the GF it was going to snow and should head home a bit earlier, she believes me now.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ugh, familiar pattern here, snowing everywhere else on the Island north of 10 miles from here, right down to sea level. Cloudy with very light drizzle here at 39F. I'm not sure how we're still getting shadowed under SE flow aloft, can't say I'm surprised though. Nice to see some snow reports from the Puget Sound, this is going to be a pretty amazing event down there.

[jaya]

Operational run is down a bit, but the means really are popping up in the ensembles!

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

 

jaya

[seattleweatherguy]

 

Here are snowfall amounts that are being forecast from 4 pm today through 4 pm Monday around western Washington. #wawx pic.twitter.com/nzRexwW468— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) February 5, 2017

Are they being conservative?

[Geos]

Heavier precip moving north pretty fast... looks like it will be letting up here soon.

 

Very little accumulation here in the last few hours... very wet snow.

Surprised you don't have anything yet.

[bainbridgekid]

Operational run is down a bit, but the means really are popping up in the ensembles!

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

 

jaya

They both look awesome to me.

 

The operational is higher than any Ensemble with 9.6" for SEA, and the mean is 6" as well. Not one member shows less than 4".

[jaya]

Are they being conservative?

Looks like an ensemble multi model mean.  Operational GFS is much larger.  Looking like 80 percent chance of 5-8, 4 on low end and 10 on high end.  Meso models 2-6. 

This is for Seatac. Should get something out of this in the central Puget Sound.  Forecast for snow is always high uncertainty around here!

[Timmy]

Switched back to wet snow/rain here with dying precip. Hope this picks back up soon! Here in rockaway oregon

[Canadian guy]

Ugh, familiar pattern here, snowing everywhere else on the Island north of 10 miles from here, right down to sea level. Cloudy with very light drizzle here at 39F. I'm not sure how we're still getting shadowed under SE flow aloft, can't say I'm surprised though. Nice to see some snow reports from the Puget Sound, this is going to be a pretty amazing event down there.

We need the outflow to increase. North east winds have picked up at the airport and rain has changed to snow. Pretty calm here in Gordon head.

[TT-SEA]

Surprised you don't have anything yet.

I have about 3 or 4 inches... just very little accumulation in the last few hours.

[Blizzard777]

34 and all snow now

 

Now the next goal......Stick!

[Poulsbo Snowman]

All snow now.  32 degrees.  Beginning to stick on the grassy knoll.

[GHweatherChris]

Coming up on a 1/2 inch here, gonna be a fun night!!

[snow_wizard]

Down another 0.4F and the ground is turning white.