February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Guest Sounder]

NAM says nothing south of Kelso

If it's any consolation to the panicing Puget Sound area weenies, we should be far more inclined to take the NAM over the Euro within 24 hours.

[MossMan]

This would make for a fun wrinkle tomorrow afternoon.

 

namconus_ref_frzn_nwus_27.png

Heavy snow over my area...perhaps my insane whining and pulling out my snow shovel today is paying off?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I believe it has also been the jet configuration, up to this point very narrow, highly focused energy.  This one is a different beast, very different than the last storm that buried OR. 

 

This one did look very promising, our getting screwed this time around looks more like plain old bad luck. I think the big problem this year has been the lack of any traditional Arctic airmasses and no significant lows sliding down from the NW or slow moving lows off the WA coast; without that it's tough to get a decent snowfall in Olympic shadowed locations. Even being north of the low today I'm not seeing any signs of wrap around precipitation because it's heading NE at such a pace that everything gets thrown into the Olympic range. It's now approaching 40F in parts of town.

[Deweydog]

If it's any consolation to the panicing Puget Sound area weenies, we should be far more inclined to take the NAM over the Euro within 24 hours.

There's definitely no reason to panice.

[Phil]

We got a quick two inches of snow this morning and it has stopped now. It comes with some bitterness as our pastor (the man who married my wife and I) passed away yesterday of a heart attack while snow blowing his driveway in Lynden. He was a completely healthy man in his 50's. On Wednesday he said in his group meeting when everone was fussing about potential snow, "I hope it snows and snows and snows and snows and snows."

I'm very sorry to hear that. Prayers.

[Winterdog]

Temp keeps climbing here...up to 39. I sure hope our screw zone this winter can finally get some decent snows with this system.

Where did all this optimism come from? You've been listening to Snow-wiz too much. We have no hope here in the screw zone.

[MossMan]

Where did all this optimism come from? You've been listening to Snow-wiz too much. We have no hope here in the screw zone.

I pulled my snow shovel out...no going back now.

[Brennan]

Abbotsford airport (YXX) reported 4" of new snow in the past hour . Pretty insane band in the Fraser Valley right now.

I don't understand that. That same band came through here and it wasn't near as intense. What makes these showers pick up so much intensity up there?

[Guest Sounder]

There's definitely no reason to panice.

I'm humiliated.

[dairyd]

Abbotsford airport (YXX) reported 4" of new snow in the past hour  . Pretty insane band in the Fraser Valley right no

http://i.imgur.com/6HFbcuP.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/CKP8oeV.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/c897mmM.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/wJcnT7S.jpg

[VancouverIslandSouth]

If the outflow decides to get going later tonight. I think the South Island is positioned pretty well.

 

It hasn't done us many favors in previous events, mostly bursts of snow for

[Deweydog]

I'm humiliated.

Go to UW!

 

They'll learn you!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 18z NAM has the South Sound in the sweet spot tonight:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017020518/nam4km_ref_frzn_nwus_12.png

[Guest Sounder]

wats euro say is it gona sno my weather app says sno but right now it rain

[The Swamp]

The 18z NAM has the South Sound in the sweet spot tonight:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017020518/nam4km_ref_frzn_nwus_12.png

Again, that is going to be mostly rain for most folks at sea level.

[Front Ranger]

We have had many notable snowstorms in late Feb / early March. 1951 had snow on the ground for like 10 days. In 1936 we had significant snowfall in late March.

 

Everett got 6" in mid April 2008.

[dairyd]

I don't understand that. That same band came through here and it wasn't near as intense. What makes these showers pick up so much intensity up there?

 

Sorry about your pastor, my condolences.

 

I think this time it is the convergence with the outflow, good breeze still coming out with 25-27* air.  850 temps mixing from that direction too plus if you look at sumas mt on the south vs vedder mt to the north. there is a convergence effect at the lower levels when the flow lines up. 

 

I think you will be pleased what's moving NNW on the radar atm.

[ShawniganLake]

It hasn't done us many favors in previous events, mostly bursts of snow for

I'll be bold and predict 2-4" for you between this afternoon and Tuesday. There is going to be something good in there. I have a feeling.

[Front Ranger]

41 here in the swamp.  Three solid days of cold rain.

 

Doubt we see any accumulation if it even snows again.  This is not the best set up for places near sea level or the water/sound.

 

Where is the cold going to come from?  The upper atmosphere with wet bulb cooling dependent upon high lapse rates.  Sure.

 

Believe that when I see it.

 

LOL. 34 with snow at KPLU.

[Tenochtitlan]

Ice pellets coming down at a decent clip now. nice

[Jesse]

LOL. 34 with snow at PLU.

 

I've always suspected that he is frequently dishonest about his conditions.

 

They are usually head scratchers and almost never match up well with nearby areas.

[Bham_Guy]

Ice pellets coming down at a decent clip now. nice

 

Light snow here...steadily increasing.

[Guest Sounder]

weather.com sayz snow 2nite

[MossMan]

weather.com sayz snow 2nite

Wat der yer IPhine said?

[Dave]

58 degrees here.  Feels like it's 70 degrees.  Haven't seen warmth like this since November.

[MossMan]

58 degrees here. Feels like it's 70 degrees. Haven't seen warmth like this since November.

Up to 40 here!

[BLI snowman]

Getting a bit snowier here. Kind of cool being on the actual battle zone line.

[Dave]

Up to 40 here!

Rain is easier to shovel than snow!

[luvssnow_spokane]

It is amazing what a little altitude change does here for snow. I took a drive up to a new development call Tehaleh, about 7 min from my house. They are at around 850' there. Getting some nice accumulations (see pics below). I have zero and pretty much rain now. I can literally drive 2 min and everything is white. It is totally bare here. LOL!

 

 

 

[Perturbed Member]

Getting a bit snowier here. Kind of cool being on the actual battle zone line.

 

Temp?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Scappoose 33 with light snow. 

[bainbridgekid]

Getting a bit snowier here. Kind of cool being on the actual battle zone line.

Battle Ground may be quite the battleground.

[TT-SEA]

We just drove down to North Bend for some game-time supplies at Safeway.   The snow level is just barely below our elevation.   As soon as you start going down the hill it turns to rain and at about 700 feet the ground is bare.   

 

Drizzle in North Bend.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'll be bold and predict 2-4" for you between this afternoon and Tuesday. There is going to be something good in there. I have a feeling.

 

I hope you're right, it's going to be quite the stretch with temperatures currently at 40F around town now and little significant precipitation predicted. It's insane comparing conditions here with conditions across the Strait, there are places up wind of here at the water's edge in Ferndale sitting at 29F under NE winds and yet after passing over a 60 mile stretch of water it arrives on the Saanich Peninsula at 39F.

[MossMan]

It is amazing what a little altitude change does here for snow. I took a drive up to a new development call Tehaleh, about 7 min from my house. They are at around 850' there. Getting some nice accumulations (see pics below). I have zero and pretty much rain now. I can literally drive 2 min and everything is white. It is totally bare here. LOL!

 

IMG_0244.jpeg

 

IMG_0245.jpeg

 

IMG_0246.jpeg

You rockin the Astro today?

[BLI snowman]

Temp?

 

33.8

 

It's obvious with the number of changeovers that I've had that the warm air is winning out just ESE of here, so I don't really see a scenario where Portland/Vancouver get accumulations aside from maybe early morning. I also don't see my temp getting any lower, so it looks like I'll be set on 34 degree rain/snow stuff most of the storm. Have had a slushy trace thus far.

[luvssnow_spokane]

You rockin the Astro today?

LOL.. nah the kia

[bainbridgekid]

It is amazing what a little altitude change does here for snow. I took a drive up to a new development call Tehaleh, about 7 min from my house. They are at around 850' there. Getting some nice accumulations (see pics below). I have zero and pretty much rain now. I can literally drive 2 min and everything is white. It is totally bare here. LOL!

 

IMG_0244.jpeg

 

IMG_0245.jpeg

 

IMG_0246.jpeg

That is a good sign for you. As precip rates increase and the sun goes down, the snow level will continue to fall.

 

Remember, the event was never really supposed to start for the lowlands till this evening.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing good here now. 33.1

[Front Ranger]

18z 3km NAM shows a period of very heavy snow for the EPSL this evening.