February 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SCORE?!

 

[bainbridgekid]

Did you get solidly hit by the zone today? If not your time has to come. Could be this weekend or next week.

I got 1.5" this morning and another 0.5" this afternoon.

 

The first snow almost entirely melted before the first though and the half inch is basically gone now too.

 

It was awesome this morning though and a lot of fun to watch it snow while teaching so I am definitely not complaining.

 

Another inch or two tonight sure sounds good though.

[snow_wizard]

Is anyone else having trouble with the precip type feature on the weather underground radar? It hasn't worked right for me for a couple of days.

[Phil]

I think Bellingham is up to, like, average Baltimore-winter status by now. I'm at 18" of snow or so

 

Seattle is maybe Richmond.

DCA averages 16", so that actually beats it. BWI/Baltimore averages 24", so that's possibly within reach by mid-March.

[wxmet]

Is anyone else having trouble with the precip type feature on the weather underground radar? It hasn't worked right for me for a couple of days.

 

 

I wouldn't rely on it. Surface observations are the best bet.

[seattleweatherguy]

Based on the radar I'm guessing an ESE line between Shoreline-Kirkland-Redmond-Fall City may be hit the hardest with a solid 1-3".

 

I'm guessing I will be close to the Northern edge of where it sets up here in Mountlake Terrace.

So close to bothell..and kenmore

[wxmet]

It's currently snow lightly downtown near the waterfront.

[bainbridgekid]

I'm liking my spot better for this second (third?) round. Still might be on the Northern edge but the trajectory looks good.

 

I've had light snow for an hour or two now but it hasn't added up to much besides the 1.5 that fell earlier. Would be nice to get one more heavy burst for the night.

The Northern edge of the zone appears to be reorganizing itself.

 

I'm expecting it to start snowing again here any minute.

 

33 degrees though here and everything is very wet. This light/moderate stuff I've been getting on and off is not really sticking.

 

EDIT 10:36 PM: Huge flakes coming down now and the grass and cars are quickly turning white again!.

[Bryant]

Given current tropical forcing/MJO forecasts, I wouldn't be surprised if much of March is dominated by Aleutian ridging. However, given the poor forecast ability of the SSW/MJO relationship, with more warming of the strat in the future, it's possible this forecast will bust. A bust would result in forcing propagating into the Pacific, and a jet extension/Alaskan vortex returning

 

http://i.imgur.com/ahkoAaT.jpg

[wxmet]

So far it's doing a good job of staying just north of the Metro 

[bainbridgekid]

Per Seattle NWS Tweet: 0.28" more rain at SEA by midnight tomorrow and this will be the wettest February in Seattle in 123 years.

[MikeInEverett]

How about that.. looks like it's moved north just enough to reach me. Light snow here now.

[pscz1140]

If this band doesn't sag about 2 miles further south I'm gonna kill myself!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I second that.

 

It's snowing steadily here and I'm most thankful for that. At the same time I'd be willing to sacrifice 107 chickens to get that band to move a few thousand meters to the south. I could literally walk less than an hour to see moderate snow, and the same thing was true almost two hours ago.

 

EDIT: It looks like a new band is forming due west of the city. Hopefully she can fill in a bit to the east.

[epiceast]

I second that.

 

It's snowing steadily here and I'm most thankful for that. At the same time I'd be willing to sacrifice 107 chickens to get that band to move a few thousand meters to the south. I could literally walk less than an hour to see moderate snow, and the same thing was true almost two hours ago.

 

EDIT: It looks like a new band is forming due west of the city. Hopefully she can fill in a bit to the east.

You might need a name change if you live on Capitol Hill.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The snow seems to be done for the night up here; today would have been the highlight event of 3 of the past 5 winters in this area. This year it only ranks 3rd coldest/snowiest for the month.

[seattleweatherguy]

Snowing here light

[Geos]

Got a thin coating of snow on the roads. Just enough to make them slick.

[epiceast]

00z Euro is really ugly. I mean it's kinda funny seeing Colorado torch and Utah semi-torch, but besides that that run is real piece of work.

[seattleweatherguy]

Got a thin coating of snow on the roads. Just enough to make them slick.

Already mine still bare and wet

[bainbridgekid]

CZ appears to be starting to fizzle the last 15 minutes or so. Hopefully it regroups and re-energizes.

[pscz1140]

You might need a name change if you live on Capitol Hill.

 

Lol

 

Living further north/east is usually preferable in these situations, but I'm still far enough north to get in on the action from time to time. I've had thundersnow in a CZ in 2009 and today, so I really can't complain.

 

The 400 or so feet of elevation makes a huge difference too. You see a difference just walking down to Broadway a lot of times (5 blocks from here), and we often get several inches more than downtown (or snow when they get rain), and it's only a 4-minute bike ride away (downhill at least ).

[Front Ranger]

DCA averages 16", so that actually beats it. BWI/Baltimore averages 24", so that's possibly within reach by mid-March.

 

I'm seeing just over 20" for BWI?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

00z Euro is really ugly. I mean it's kinda funny seeing Colorado torch and Utah semi-torch, but besides that that run is real piece of work.

 

There seems to be a trend to bring the Saturday low further south with each model run.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017022800/ecmwf_T850_nwus_6.png

[ShawniganLake]

Picked up about 1/2" of snow with some flurries around dinner time.

 

This brings my seasonal total to 54.5". Fairly impressive.

[Phil]

I'm seeing just over 20" for BWI?

On what baseline?

[pscz1140]

Heaviest snow of the night so far.

 

I guess that thing with the chickens is finally paying off.

[pscz1140]

The off-and-on nature of the snow tonight really made me realize how long it can take for snow to reach the ground from radar-beam level.

 

There was around a 20-minute delay at times (even after adjusting for any time lag in the radar) from when the heavier returns were over my neighborhood until the snow graced the waiting earth below.

[TT-SEA]

For those taking bets yesterday... it looks like the c-zone went all night (and is still going) but there has not been any meaningful snow accumulation here since late yesterday evening.   Also looks like quite the scene outside here as daylight approaches.   A complete plastering of snow with no wind at all overnight.    

 

I see I-90 is clear now past Snoqualmie Parkway. 

 

[Timmy]

06z continues to be epic for 1500'+ snowfall. Sevearal feet above 2500' looks like! Close to a foot here this coming weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Picked up another inch of snow overnight. Looks like I will be be February with a total of 36" on the season, not bad so far, given the model trends I have a realistic shot at 45-50" on the season.

[Geos]

Only about 0.7" overnight. 4.2" total for this event. 

[TT-SEA]

Some scenes just before sunrise here...

 

 

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

Dissapointed no snow here

[TT-SEA]

School is 2 hours late here... wimpy!    Although it looks like the entire district had significant snow so it was probably a good decision.

 

[MossMan]

Been snowing for the last hour here, all is white. Still had about an inch from yesterday.

[Geos]

Some pretty good snow showers heading southeast this morning. Got some flurries currently. 31°

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Still a bit of snow left here from the stuff that fell yesterday morning, but the spring is pushing through.

 

http://i131.photobucket.com/albums/p286/jemeric/IMG_4181_zpsidcohr3c.jpg

[Bryant]

Checked the radar and models before bed, and didn't expect a flake. Woke up to 4.5"

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/sxvULZn.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like I am going to get hammered this weekend per the GFS

[TT-SEA]

Looks like I am going to get hammered this weekend per the GFS

 

 

Yeah... I was thinking about you when looking at the 12Z run.