Jesse Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 True, the airmass we will see Saturday-Monday is really about a once every 5 year or so March airmass. The 18z had thickness bottoming out at 518 at Salem. Once every five years seems about right. Although if colder runs are to be believed the longevity of the cold could bump it to a higher echelon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 True, the airmass we will see Saturday-Monday is really about a once every 5 year or so March airmass. The 18z had thickness bottoming out at 518 at Salem. NWS employees went to sleep in 2012 and just woke up, so their senses of what is a normal March airmass are a little off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Sunday night/Monday looks like snow levels to the valley floor on the 00z. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 NWS employees went to sleep in 2012 and just woke up, so their senses of what is a normal March airmass are a little off. Before that they were only awake in 2009, 2006 and 2002. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 At face value Monday looks like a 33/30 type day up here... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Wow. Looks pretty snowy for some areas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 So Sunday morning has trended a little less marginal than it was looking like it would go. It's evolved into more of an outflow pattern with 925mbs going down to about -3~4C and 850mb around -7C, very similar to what we saw this past Monday. However, the low looks a bit stronger and there won't be as much low level drying ahead of it; lots of uncertainty around where the precipitation will end up as usual. Sure would be nice to get a weekend snowfall for a change. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030300/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_10.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 So Sunday morning has trended a little less marginal than it was looking like it would go. It's evolved into more of an outflow pattern with 925mbs going down to about -3~4C and 850mb around -7C, very similar to what we saw this past Monday. However, the low looks a bit stronger and there won't be as much low level drying ahead of it; lots of uncertainty around where the precipitation will end up as usual. Sure would be nice to get a weekend snowfall for a change. Those numbers are surely good enough for lowland snow. The 522 thickness line is way south of us and surface gradients are weak offshore. I need this to get my winter total over 10 inches so the stakes are high! 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Those numbers are surely good enough for lowland snow. The 522 thickness line is way south of us and surface gradients are weak offshore. I need this to get my winter total over 10 inches so the stakes are high! Yep, as we saw on Monday that atmospheric profile can easily produce snow, the timing with the first bands coming through in the morning and backwash showers (on that side of the Sound) coming in during the evening will also help. I'm surprised you haven't broken the 10" mark, I would have thought the Monday snowfall would have done it. Should be 2 or 3 more shots in the next few days to pick up more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Those numbers are surely good enough for lowland snow. The 522 thickness line is way south of us and surface gradients are weak offshore. I need this to get my winter total over 10 inches so the stakes are high! Some potential on the 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Wrf still has some accumulation in the metro by 4am Sunday. 8" up here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 0z is good. Low pressure west/south of us for several days. I had 3.5-4" fall midday this past week, and this upcoming weekend looks just as good or better in terms of putting the L in the sweet spot. I can realistically see 3-6" totals pretty widespread for Whatcom County. The difference maker could be the time of day the heaviest showers fall too. Hoping for the best! .... Almost expecting it at this point. Based off of the lack of activity on the forum I actually believe that most people are ready for spring. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Wrf shows close to 16" of snow by mid Monday here. Wow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Suprised more people are not posting. Hopefully the euro brings more snow over central Sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 0z is good. Low pressure west/south of us for several days. I had 3.5-4" of snow this past week, and this upcoming weekend looks just as good or better. Based off of the lack of activity on the forum I actually believe that most people are ready for spring.I'm down for more winter. Let's do this! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Suprised more people are not posting. Hopefully the euro brings more snow over central Sound.Because central sound is not in it or snow shadowed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luminen Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 my area is progged for 5-8" on Sunday and 3-5" on Monday. Hmm, probably won't see that much but hopefully a few inches. The weekend after this one is looking promising as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 I'm sitting at 9.5" this winter. I suppose I could say I've hit double digits when I use a decimal but I'd rather get another half inch this weekend. I'd say I have a 50/50 shot. I'm quite ready for a season change but like most of you I'm a hopeless snow lover. I'll take it whenever and wherever it falls. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Because central sound is not in it or snow shadowed? I'm not sure I buy the shadow. The WRF seems to be over emphasizing it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Shut up. Rude comment. Why would you bring up economics in a discussion about preferring nicer weather now? That has nothing do with your economic situation.Did someone spill your starbucks today? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Did someone spill your starbucks today? No! I did not go to Starbucks today. Or even this year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 No! I did not go to Starbucks today. Or even this year. Are you Mormon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 No! I did not go to Starbucks today. Or even this year. Do you brew black drip coffee like a good 'ol real American Midwestern man? Or do you go to another fancy Seattle coffeeshop? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Do you brew black drip coffee like a good 'ol real American Midwestern man? Or do you go to another fancy Seattle coffeeshop?Go drop some molly and talk about how Excision changed your life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Go drop some molly and talk about how Excision changed your life.Uncalled for. I only drink homemade coffee. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 (.. cross-reference.) http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1525-late-winter-2017-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=226141 Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Do you brew black drip coffee like a good 'ol real American Midwestern man? Or do you go to another fancy Seattle coffeeshop?Brew my own. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Are you Mormon?No sir. I love coffee. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 6z alert! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 6z alert! Holy cow Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Holy cowWhat is happening ?!?!?!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 The 6z is an amazing change from previous and it has strong ensemble support. Potentially historic cold wave being depicted. After such a cold winter this would be extraordinary. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 What is happening ?!?!?!? This...And it is not a major outlier. It is at the cold end of the ensembles yes, but it is not alone... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.png Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
epiceast Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 This...And it is not a major outlier. It is at the cold end of the ensembles yes, but it is not alone... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_34.pngPortland snow drought never got a chance to develop this winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 Aside from the potential craziness next weekend things have trended a bit colder in the short range. The upper levels are more than sufficient for snow with precipitation looping through on Sunday morning as per the 12z GFS. If this one busts it will more likely be due to a lack of moisture rather than marginal temperatures it seems: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030312/gfs_T850_nwus_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted March 3, 2017 Report Share Posted March 3, 2017 GFS ALERT http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017030312/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_30.png 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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