March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS shows two snow events late week, one effecting W. Washington the other hitting W. Oregon. More troughing in the long range. 

[Timmy]

12 gem says no way to next weekend

[TT-SEA]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 gem says no way to next weekend

 

Yeah wow its not even close. I could see it. The GFS has been good and consistent, but it is trending away from the digging trough....

 

I could see a compromise solution evolve with a sharp N/S gradient (SnowWiz would love this. ). 

[MossMan]

Now it's sunny!

[FroYoBro]

Getting rain with temperatures in the upper 30's. Feels familiar. 

[Timmy]

Yeah wow its not even close. I could see it. The GFS has been good and consistent, but it is trending away from the digging trough....

 

I could see a compromise solution evolve with a sharp N/S gradient (SnowWiz would love this. ).

I'm just looking for a way to not be nervous about my flight getting delayed next Saturday, pdx-sea-puerta Vallarta... last time I tried to do pdx-sea-aus January 11th happened. Could be a good analog for you guys.

[luminen]

Got 2 inches overnight and then it stopped snowing but it's snowing again now. The next 10+ days are looking pretty good for snow potential as well. 

[ShawniganLake]

Sounds like another case of Portland stealing all of Seattle's snow.

The entire state is now stealing it from Seattle.

[HighlandExperience]

Got 2 inches overnight and then it stopped snowing but it's snowing again now. The next 10+ days are looking pretty good for snow potential as well. 

 

 

Hope this is correct.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Getting rain with temperatures in the upper 30's. Feels familiar. 

 

After living up here for 6 winters now, I don't know if I could handle living on the valley floor anymore. 

[Jesse]

The entire state is now stealing it from Seattle.

 

"Anywhere in Oregon is Portland."

 

-Someone from Seattle

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So far the precip amounts with this trough have been pretty lame. 

 

But if we have decent moisture tonight I think most places down to the valley floors will see at least a dusting. 

[MossMan]

Now it's snowing again!

Wait now rain/snow mix!

[snow_wizard]

Things continue to look good for the next week. Many snow chances coming up. The 850mb temps spiked a bit last night which explains the bust. The air mass is definitely going to be colder the next two nights. We could have sticking snow even the during the day with heavy convective showers.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A snowy scene in Brookings, Oregon this morning. Often referred to as the "banana belt" of Oregon. Snow is extremely rare here. They are prone to downsloping off of the coastal mountains and commonly hit the 60s and 70s in March. I wonder when the last time they saw sticking snow in March was. The average annual snowfall is 0.7". 

 

"Due to its location, Brookings is subject to winter (and less frequently summer) temperatures considered unusually warm for the Oregon Coast or for that matter, the coast of Northern California north of Santa Cruz. Temperatures can reach 70 to 80 °F (21.1 to 26.7 °C) throughout the year. This is due in part to the marine influences from its location on the Pacific Ocean, but mostly from its situation at the foot of the Klamath Mountains, from which winds compress and warm the air flowing onto Brookings. This is called the Brookings effect or Chetco effect, similar to the warm dry Santa Ana winds of coastal Southern California. Daffodils and other bulbs generally bloom in February. In the lowlands, heavy fog is common in the summer while the coastal hills are generally sunny and cool."

 

 

[HighlandExperience]

Things continue to look good for the next week. Many snow chances coming up. The 850mb temps spiked a bit last night which explains the bust. The air mass is definitely going to be colder the next two nights. We could have sticking snow even the during the day with heavy convective showers.

 

The WRF shows a tongue of 6-8 inches right over your area on the 4km 72 hr map. In fact looks nice for all of King County. Especially east and south of I-90. 

 

If we can at least get some snow the next two days I will feel more confident about the upcoming weekend. 

[MossMan]

This pic came up on my "1yr ago today" Facebook memories...I had already mowed a few times and the grass was just growing like crazy. Not this year!

[Jesse]

A snowy scene in Brookings, Oregon this morning. Often referred to as the "banana belt" of Oregon. Snow is extremely rare here. They are prone to downsloping off of the coastal mountains and commonly hit the 60s and 70s in March. I wonder when the last time they saw sticking snow in March was. The average annual snowfall is 0.7". 

 

"Due to its location, Brookings is subject to winter (and less frequently summer) temperatures considered unusually warm for the Oregon Coast or for that matter, the coast of Northern California north of Santa Cruz. Temperatures can reach 70 to 80 °F (21.1 to 26.7 °C) throughout the year. This is due in part to the marine influences from its location on the Pacific Ocean, but mostly from its situation at the foot of the Klamath Mountains, from which winds compress and warm the air flowing onto Brookings. This is called the Brookings effect or Chetco effect, similar to the warm dry Santa Ana winds of coastal Southern California. Daffodils and other bulbs generally bloom in February. In the lowlands, heavy fog is common in the summer while the coastal hills are generally sunny and cool."

 

I've always been pretty fascinated with the Brookings effect. Part southerly position but mostly geography. There's lots of interesting flora in that area as well, including very rare species of conifer (Port Orford Cedar), carnivorous plants, and the northernmost groves of coastal Redwoods, along the lower Chetco River.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This pic came up on my "1yr ago today" Facebook memories...I had already mowed a few times and the grass was just growing like crazy. Not this year!

 

I was already mowing by mid-March last year. At this time last year my daffodils were already blooming, they are about 3" high right now. Things could be delayed like the spring of 2011 this year. 

[crf450ish]

I'm honestly sick of cold and snow. Haha. I know. Did it to myself by moving here lol. I love the real seasons though. Still a foot of snowpack on the ground. Looking forward to summer.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've always been pretty fascinated with the Brookings effect. Part southerly position but mostly geography. There's lots of interesting flora in that area as well, including very rare species of conifer (Port Orford Cedar), carnivorous plants, and the northernmost groves of coastal Redwoods, along the lower Chetco River.

 

it is beautiful down there. And I cannot understate how rare a widespread sticking snowfall from Brookings to Cape Blanco is...EVER...Let alone in March. The average high temperature in Brookings in January is 55.2. Their all-time March low temp is barely below freezing. 

[luminen]

I was already mowing by mid-March last year. At this time last year my daffodils were already blooming, they are about 3" high right now. Things could be delayed like the spring of 2011 this year. 

 

Most grass that I see around here has a very pale look to it when it's green. There's a lot of brownish yellow grass as well which isn't too common here.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Overall the moisture with this trough has been really disappointing. Hopefully this evenings shortwave can have a little more juice. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles still look decent. 

[Jesse]

Ensembles still look decent. 

 

More spread than before though. 

[Jesse]

I think -8c or so

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us0317.php

 

We picked up 2" here on St. Patrick's Day morning.

 

I remember that St. Patrick's day morning snowfall well. I actually have VHS footage of it somewhere.

[Jesse]

I'm honestly sick of cold and snow. Haha. I know. Did it to myself by moving here lol. I love the real seasons though. Still a foot of snowpack on the ground. Looking forward to summer.

 

We were up in Trout Lake yesterday and not so much as even a hint of spring anywhere. There is still about a foot and a half or more of snow on the ground in the Trout Lake valley.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

More spread than before though. 

 

Yeah mostly the 9-11th, but that wasn't even looking like a cold period really until yesterday. The 11-13th still has mostly cold members. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We were up in Trout Lake yesterday and not so much as even a hint of spring anywhere. There is still about a foot and a half or more of snow on the ground in the Trout Lake valley.

 

March 3rd was the first time in 89 days Trout Lake had a low above freezing.

[wxmet]

Like the look of the GFS 12z. Multiple opportunities for snow in the coming week. Shows it snowing the entire day on Friday.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Doing a little Brookings research. They did have 1" of snow on 4/5/1929. They had a low of 32 that day too, so it would seem legit. 

[Jesse]

March 3rd was the first time in 89 days Trout Lake had a low above freezing.

 

I can believe it. Everything was still buttoned up tight there as Jim would say.

 

There was even pretty solid snowcover down in Husum. That area is only a couple hundred feet above Columbia River level.

[Jesse]

Looks like a pretty organized area of showers moving in over the Coast Range at the moment. Could be an active early afternoon.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF is downright serious with the cold later this week. More than cold enough for snow with numerous bands of precip coming through. Amazing ensemble support for a cold outcome too. This looks fantastic right now.

[Jesse]

The WRF is downright serious with the cold later this week. More than cold enough for snow with numerous bands of precip coming through. Amazing ensemble support for a cold outcome too. This looks fantastic right now.

 

I need to see the Euro and Canadian being less wishy washy before I can get too excited about any cold beyond this current trough.

 

I would absolutely love an historic blast centered around March 11-12, but that is a tall order.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro still wants to give the valley 1-2" early tomorrow morning. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

EURO. NOT ON BOARD.

[BLI snowman]

EURO. NOT ON BOARD.

 

I'll be happy just to see full snow at this point. Haven't had any since Super Bowl Sunday, for 20 minutes.

[TT-SEA]

EURO. NOT ON BOARD.

 

Not even close.   No more snow even up here after Tuesday.

 

Absolutely nothing later in the week and next weekend on the 12Z run. 

 

850mb temps for next Saturday went from -7C on the 00Z run to +4C on the 12Z run.