March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Could be most active t-storm day in quite awhile for you all today. Good luck!

 

HRRR is definitely interesting for later this afternoon.   Although each run shows the placement a little differently.    Sun breaks will definitely help if we can manage that by early afternoon.

[Kayla]

For those interested - The NAM 3km (parallel) was officially upgraded this morning on the 12z run. The NAM 3km replaces the lower resolution and less reliable 4km model.

 

I watched the NAM 3km very closely all winter and it was actually the one model that picked up on the Portland Jan 11th snowstorm first and has been very reliable in the short term as I've mentioned before.

[Phil]

A memory popped up on facebook from this day in 2014 so I started scrolling from there forward to see how spring progressed... we seem to be about on track with that year. Maybe a little slower. I kept scrolling and was reminded how crazy early everything was in 2015 and 2016.

Going to be much more -PNA/Aleutian ridging through most of this warm season, compared to 2014 which featured more +PNA/Aleutian troughing. The pattern over North America might actually be opposite of 2014.

[Jesse]

Going to be much more -PNA/Aleutian ridging through most of this warm season, compared to 2014 which featured more +PNA/Aleutian troughing. The pattern over North America might actually be opposite of 2014.

Thank goodness. That was one of my least favorite weather years ever from spring onward.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 years ago today was the greatest late season snow event in modern times in the Willamette valley. 6-8" in Eugene, 4" in Salem. South Salem hills had 10-12". I ended up with 20"

[Phil]

Thank goodness. That was one of my least favorite weather years ever from spring onward.

Yeah, you won't have to worry about a repeat of 2013/14/15. All three featured convection along/west of the dateline with a secondary cell over the IO. This year is sort of inverted, but unique in the extreme west-based/modoki Niño setup, with the subsidence over the IO and WPAC/dateline, and enhanced EPAC/WHEM convection.

[Jesse]

I'm wondering if the west side will get enough clearing today.

[Front Ranger]

I'm wondering if the west side will get enough clearing today.

 

Looking at satellite, probably not until later this afternoon.

[Timmy Supercell]

Right now heavy chunky wet snow. Falling faster than your typical snowflakes.

 

Earlier around 8:30-9:00am it was heavy rain and 44 degrees. Dropped to 37 over the last hour.

 

Still a solid chance of t'storms in the PNW (on SPC all of Oregon covered in a risk).

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/eg4mzn.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Right now heavy chunky wet snow. Falling faster than your typical snowflakes.

 

Earlier around 8:30-9:00am it was heavy rain and 44 degrees. Dropped to 37 over the last hour.

 

Still a solid chance of t'storms in the PNW (on SPC all of Oregon covered in a risk).

 

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/eg4mzn.jpg

The airport is down to 34 now!

[Jesse]

The airport is down to 34 now!

Hope he gets six inches.

[Timmy Supercell]

The airport is down to 34 now!

 

Now sticking to grass and vehicles. Still none on roads though. I wonder if this keeps up more I'll actually get road accumulation.

 

Edit: Wasn't watching the radar I guess. This is about to end. 

[TT-SEA]

Its been fairly sunny here for the last hour... but I think it came too early.   Another batch of rain moving in now.

 

[Front Ranger]

Its been fairly sunny here for the last hour... but I think it came too early.   Another batch of rain moving in now.

 

 

Clearing is moving up the Willamette Valley. Probably will reach PDX by 2 pm, SEA by maybe 3:30-4 pm. So late afternoon/early evening is probably the time to watch for your area.

[BLI snowman]

Clearing is moving up the Willamette Valley. Probably will reach PDX by 2 pm, SEA by maybe 3:30-4 pm. So late afternoon/early evening is probably the time to watch for your area.

 

A couple months from now this would be a great convective setup. Not sure it's gonna happen for us today.

[Front Ranger]

A couple months from now this would be a great convective setup. Not sure it's gonna happen for us today.

 

True, not as promising as May/April/June setups like this. But afternoon clearing can still help convection even with temps just in the 50s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Up to 60 at EUG

[newtobc]

Does anyone think an Upper Level Low will form in the Gulf of Alaska again this year?? and create the Merry-go-Round of Lows that plagued us last year. 

[Front Ranger]

Up to 60 at EUG

 

SLE now in the 60s as well. Looks like clearing is about to reach PDX.

 

EDIT: Looks like some fairly potent storms forming just off the south OR coast now.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like Tim's house has got a nice soaking today, much wetter than Seattle proper.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like Tim's house has got a nice soaking today, much wetter than Seattle proper.

 

Pretty good... glad to get the fertilizer activated and soaked in.  

 

Only .18 today so far though so not much.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow. 0.41" precip today. That's before any convection occurred here (if that happens). Warmed up nicely to 49 but I still think it's a bit cool-ish for isolated rumblies. 

[Dave]

67 degrees!  feelsgood.jpg 

[Jesse]

Lincoln County is the place to be right now.

[luminen]

48F degrees and cloudy here. Just another typical winter day.  <_>

 

But on the plus side, I hope this spring isn't too warm/sunny or else the trees and pollen will be bad like last year. 

[Front Ranger]

Looks like some decent storms heading into both the N Willamette Valley and Kitsap peninsula.

[TT-SEA]

Sun is out here now.    

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like some decent storms heading into both the N Willamette Valley and Kitsap peninsula.

Doesn't look like there was much if any lightning in western Washington. A few strikes with that cell in Oregon.

[ShawniganLake]

[Front Ranger]

Doesn't look like there was much if any lightning in western Washington. A few strikes with that cell in Oregon.

 

Still developing in the past hour, though, and that map is an hour behind.

[luminen]

Fingers crossed for a more active convection season.

[Jesse]

Some thunder and lightning off to the ENE here.

 

There was a really loud rumble of thunder about 20 minutes ago. Then we stood on the porch and watched the sky light up 3 or 4 more times, with receding thunder.

[ShawniganLake]

Fingers crossed for a more active convection season.

That would be nice. Southern Vancouver island is a dead zone for convection most always though. Least t-storm days out of any place in Canada.

[TT-SEA]

Live cam of the cherry blossoms at UW in Seattle... looks like they just about caught up to DC.

 

 

https://youtu.be/-M4vp-eVhQ4

 

 

Here is a picture from DC yesterday for comparison...

 

[WeatherArchive]

How often do west based Nino's occur?

[Jesse]

That's crazy. We have Japanese cherry trees on our campus down here and they are nowhere even close to blooming.

 

The plum trees finally started in spots a few days ago.

[TT-SEA]

That's crazy. We have Japanese cherry trees on our campus down here and they are nowhere even close to blooming.

 

The plum trees finally started in spots a few days ago.

 

I think Portland had a harsher winter than Seattle.  

[Jesse]

I think Portland had a harsher winter than Seattle.

Yeah, but Seattle has been running colder overall for the last month or so.

[Jesse]

That webcam site for UW is kind of cool. Apparently during a normal year those trees start blooming in early March. Which is interesting. I have always thought of Japanese cherry blossoms as an early April thing.

 

So what we are seeing this year is a delayed bloom.

 

http://www.washington.edu/news/2017/03/07/cherry-blossom-watch-2017/

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, but Seattle has been running colder overall for the last month or so.

 

They have lots of cherry trees at the outlet mall in North Bend and they are just about to start blooming.    Maybe even today.   We are probably a week behind Seattle out here.  

 

This is last year on February 25th... they are just about to this stage now so a month later this year.