Snowshoe Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 Woke up to this on my phone this morning. WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 1232 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES SET ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING... AN INTENSE ARCTIC AIR MASS DOMINATED THE GREAT LAKES REGION LAST NIGHT...LEADING TO NUMEROUS RECORDS BEING BROKEN. HERE IS A LIST OF PRELIMINARY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THAT WERE BROKEN. ---------------------------------------------------------------- NEW RECORD PREVIOUS LOCATION LOW TEMP RECORD YEAR ---------------------------------------------------------------- ANTIGO -29 -19 1972 APPLETON -12 -10 1943 GREEN BAY -24 -10 1943 & 1950 MANITOWOC -8 -6 1943 MARSHFIELD -20 -17 1943 MERRILL -32 -24 1943 OSHKOSH -15 -8 1943 RHINELANDER -28 -23 1972 STEVENS POINT -29 -14 1972 WISCONSIN RAPIDS -23 -22 1943 WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 Woke up to this on my phone this morning. Nice! ...not -4.2° at my house for a low. Was +1° by the time I had to leave for work. 16° with full sun in Racine. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 The Nebraska snow donut hole, boy have we seen that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 3, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 18z GFS back to its cold/snowy pattern from Plains on east. Something I was referring to would happen around March 10-12th period as there would be a good 2 week period of cold and snow before the pattern shifts to a SW Flow around the last week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 Very stormy pattern expected March 12-20. Potential for a storm in our neck of the woods before best potential shifts east to the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS showing warmup early next week. We'll see. Everytime it shows it, it never seems to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 3, 2014 Report Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS showing warmup early next week. We'll see. Everytime it shows it, it never seems to happen.you are right james1976 that the nws calling lower 40's for my area under mostly sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 If the warm up stays for early next week, I'd say it could be well into the 40s. If SW winds are strong enough to mix that air to the ground. Skilling going with 40° for Friday. 32° Thursday. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 surprise snow tonight. coming down way hard. just measured 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Geos is going to hate the long-range GFS this time around. 0 to -10 degrees for HIGHS on the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 GFS has 2 days above freezing through the 17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Geos is going to hate the long-range GFS this time around. 0 to -10 degrees for HIGHS on the 15th.Lol, no way that happens, and if it did, I wave my white flag to this winter and give up! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Lol, no way that happens, and if it did, I wave my white flag to this winter and give up! lol Haha. GFS is cold biased, enough said. GFS has 850mb temps approaching 50° for Monday. Combination with that and the nearly 45° angle, snow will be melting like mad. 0 - -10° for highs on the 15th of March - IMPOSSIBLE! GFS is joking around with us. 850 mb temps are like -10°C at 276 hours. Way too warm to support anything that cold. Record low max for that date in Chicago is 17°, 1893. Record low 6°, 1890.Record low for MKE for that date 2°, 1877 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Haha. GFS is cold biased, enough said. GFS has 850mb temps approaching 50° for Monday. Combination with that and the nearly 45° angle, snow will be melting like mad. 0 - -10° for highs on the 15th of March - IMPOSSIBLE! GFS is joking around with us.good news geos that we need to wake up and look at noaa forecast because they said that the blocking over alaska and bering sea will start to collapse by next week and by mid month that the ao will go into positive territory by the 16th of this month so we need to stop talking about big snowstorms hitting the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 good news geos that we need to wake up and look at noaa forecast because they said that the blocking over alaska and bering sea will start to collapse by next week and by mid month that the ao will go into positive territory by the 16th of this month so we need to stop talking about big snowstorms hitting the country.We don't need to stop talking about big snowstorms, because they can still happen if it can far cold air wrapped in, but pretty soon here the very brutal temps will go away. The DVN even had highs today to cold and they mentioned how the sun is now having a bigger effect, so highs below 0 are bascially impossible in mid-March. It can still be way below normal, but normal is getting much warmer, so it'll actually seem warm compared to what we've been getting. Like Geos said, GFS has been having a crazy cold bias as of late, and what it's showing is just ridiculous. But we can't count out snowstorms yet, still plenty of them left for those.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 good news geos that we need to wake up and look at noaa forecast because they said that the blocking over alaska and bering sea will start to collapse by next week and by mid month that the ao will go into positive territory by the 16th of this month so we need to stop talking about big snowstorms hitting the country. Yep still showing the shifting of the blocking. 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 good news geos that we need to wake up and look at noaa forecast because they said that the blocking over alaska and bering sea will start to collapse by next week and by mid month that the ao will go into positive territory by the 16th of this month so we need to stop talking about big snowstorms hitting the country.Weren't you saying we were going to get 12-18" from like 3 storms this year? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Haha. GFS is cold biased, enough said. GFS has 850mb temps approaching 50° for Monday. Combination with that and the nearly 45° angle, snow will be melting like mad. 0 - -10° for highs on the 15th of March - IMPOSSIBLE! GFS is joking around with us. 850 mb temps are like -10°C at 276 hours. Way too warm to support anything that cold. Record low max for that date in Chicago is 17°, 1893. Record low 6°, 1890.Record low for MKE for that date 2°, 1877I agree with you Geos We would need a big snowstorm to get us close to a 0 degree temp otherwise its gonna be pretty hard to achieve a sub zero low/high mid-march on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yep still showing the shifting of the blocking. Yeah, and looks like zonal flow may start to take over, which the DVN has been hinting at. That's fine with me. I mean it's not crazy warm, but mild weather sounds fine with me and maybe we can get some storms to fire up out west and bring a larger scale storm across our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 I agree with you Geos We would need a big snowstorm to get us close to a 0 degree temp otherwise its gonna be pretty hard to achieve a sub zero low/high mid-march on. It shows snow the day before, so I'm guessing that could be part of why it shows cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Weren't you saying we were going to get 12-18" from like 3 storms this year? LOLyes i did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 It shows snow the day before, so I'm guessing that could be part of why it shows cold temps.If thats the case then it could push zero. Does Ggem still have a weekend system or has it backed off on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 In the meantime, 11 degrees here and and breezy wind from the south with a cloud cover should keep temps right around there for most of the night. Nothing like last night. Man, can't believe it almost got to -15... Which was once again colder than Dubuque. I wonder if I am colder than Dubuque when there is a slight wind since it doesn't get as windy in my neighborhood as it would in the open. Makes sense, that's not the first time I've been several degrees colder than what Dubuque reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 GFS isn't factoring in what time of year it is then. A month ago, yes I might actually believe it. or even 3 weeks. I don't think the models have been exposed to this extensive snow cover so late in the season and they're probably struggling trying to figure out how cold or not so cold to project temps. Will see what the 6z run brings. Could be more model drama. lol 1 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abhidupage Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 yes i didHow did that pan out? Not too good. So I wouldn't say with 100% confidence that the countries not going to have a big snowstorm after the 16th. 3 or 4 of the biggest snowstorms in Chicago History have came after March 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 GFS isn't factoring in what time of year it is then. A month ago, yes I might actually believe it. I don't think the models have been exposed this extensive snow cover so late in the season and they're probably struggling trying to figure out how cold or not so cold to project temps. Will see what the 6z run brings. Could be more model drama. lolI could see maybe lows pushing zero if a storm came through and then cold air. I mean it got to -15 here last night, I wouldn't doubt 0 or so again for a low, but no way a high doesn't reach above 0, I just can't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 How did that pan out? Not too good. So I wouldn't say with 100% confidence that the countries not going to have a big snowstorm after the 16th. 3 or 4 of the biggest snowstorms in Chicago History have came after March 1st.i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 i am thinking that from the 16th on that our winter is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 i am thinking that from the 16th on that our winter is done.I'm not. Just because we may finally see average temps doesn't mean the year is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 GFS isn't factoring in what time of year it is then. A month ago, yes I might actually believe it. or even 3 weeks. I don't think the models have been exposed to this extensive snow cover so late in the season and they're probably struggling trying to figure out how cold or not so cold to project temps. Will see what the 6z run brings. Could be more model drama. lol You're actually arguing in favor of potential subzero temps in the next week or two by implying that the models haven't dealt with extensive snow cover this late in the season, hence it may be underdoing the cold skewing towards climo. I don't think that's the case, but your argument isn't helping your case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 You're actually arguing in favor of potential subzero temps in the next week or two by implying that the models haven't dealt with extensive snow cover this late in the season, hence it may be underdoing the cold skewing towards climo. I don't think that's the case, but your argument isn't helping your case.Interesting thought. Could go either way, IMO. If the models aren't used to snow cover this late in the year and that's influencing it, could make it have a cold or warm bias, so the argument could actually work both ways. What Geos is saying is that it's causing the models to think that the snow cover will keep temps colder when actually the sun will warm it up more like it always does this time of year, and what you're saying is that the models aren't used to this snow cover and therefore could actually be too warm because of that. Both make sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Interesting thought. Could go either way, IMO. If the models aren't used to snow cover this late in the year and that's influencing it, could make it have a cold or warm bias, so the argument could actually work both ways. What Geos is saying is that it's causing the models to think that the snow cover will keep temps colder when actually the sun will warm it up more like it always does this time of year, and what you're saying is that the models aren't used to this snow cover and therefore could actually be too warm because of that. Both make sense.east dubzz does make a good point that every time we get a warm up that we get a storm that knocks temps back down because the polar vortex and cold fronts from canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midwest buildit Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 pretty sure it can snow in march..and these are just the big ones.. Chicago's 10 biggest Snowstorms:23.0 inches Jan 26-27, 1967 21.6 inches Jan 1-3, 1999 19.2 inches Mar 25-26, 1930 18.8 inches Jan 13-14, 1979 16.2 inches Mar 7-8, 1931 15.0 inches Dec 17-20, 1929 14.9 inches Jan 30, 1939 14.9 inches Jan 6-7, 1918 14.3 inches Mar 25-26, 1970 14.0 inches Jan 18-20, 1886Snowfall of 10 Inches or More - Storm TotalMarch 25-26, 1970 14.3 inchesMarch 2-3, 1954 11.8 inchesMarch 7-8, 1931 16.2 inchesMarch 25-26, 1930 19.2 inchesMarch 30-31, 1926 12.6 inchesMarch 23-24, 1897 10.0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Interesting thought. Could go either way, IMO. If the models aren't used to snow cover this late in the year and that's influencing it, could make it have a cold or warm bias, so the argument could actually work both ways. What Geos is saying is that it's causing the models to think that the snow cover will keep temps colder when actually the sun will warm it up more like it always does this time of year, and what you're saying is that the models aren't used to this snow cover and therefore could actually be too warm because of that. Both make sense. You're right about that, it could go either way. In the case of the GFS it is probably underdoing temps, but hard to say. The GFS has had trouble in the past not taking into account aspects like drought, I'm quite disappointed in the model given it's one of the main American computer models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 euro still showing that storm it looks like. 994.9 in N. KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Got 1.5" here last night, temp got down to 6 degrees as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Looks like all models have backed off on that large storm that the Euro was showing. Weekend storm appears to be fading away as well. GFS hardly showing any snow after tonight. Subject to change of course and could come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 4, 2014 Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 Looks like all models have backed off on that large storm that the Euro was showing. Weekend storm appears to be fading away as well. GFS hardly showing any snow after tonight. Subject to change of course and could come back.That big storm that gave us all that rain a little while back... the Euro originally showed that, backed off for a while, and then it eventually came back. Models aren't going to show the storm run after run this far out, they're simply not that good (heck they can't even figure it out 24 hours out...), so the storm can definitely come back and would not surprise me if it did.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 4, 2014 Author Report Share Posted March 4, 2014 00z Euro EPS Control model still showed a major snowstorm for IA/N IL/S WI/N IN/MI into the east coast even though the 00z Euro OP went south through the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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