April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

A nice Easter looking a little shaky on the new 00Z GFS... to be expected.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041100/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png

Your weather ended up being miles better than mine. I had no real breaks today, just pouring rain or drizzle basically. Maybe a 30 minute break. I'm at over 4" of rain this month now.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 00Z ECMWF still shows a warm Easter with highs in the mid to upper 60s across the entire region.

[Sometimesdylan]

I love how this forum intertwines peoples thoughts on complex issues with random model posts and weather observations.

[ShawniganLake]

Chilly out there tonight. Sitting at 35F currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

31 this morning

[stuffradio]

It was 35 when I woke up.

[Jesse]

31 this morning

Happy Birthday!

[TT-SEA]

3rd morning in a row that we woke up to bright sunshine and blue skies here. Baby steps.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3rd morning in a row that we woke up to bright sunshine and blue skies here. Baby steps.

High clouds here.

[Jesse]

High cloud's here.

 

Tell your native american friend I said hi!

[DareDuck]

High clouds here.

Can't wait to head to southern CA next week. I need some sun, this 45 degrees and cloudy crap is getting old. We also lost our shot at a really green spring around here with 6 weeks of little precip. Hoping to see some solid greenery in CA.

[Jesse]

Can't wait to head to southern CA next week. I need some sun, this 45 degrees and cloudy crap is getting old. We also lost our shot at a really green spring around here with 6 weeks of little precip. Hoping to see some solid greenery in CA.

Or you could just come to the west side!

 

Surprising it has been so dry over there.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS back to showing a very nice Easter Sunday...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z GFS shows that its still decent on Monday as well.    

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_26.png

[Front Ranger]

Can't wait to head to southern CA next week. I need some sun, this 45 degrees and cloudy crap is getting old. We also lost our shot at a really green spring around here with 6 weeks of little precip. Hoping to see some solid greenery in CA.

 

I was in southern CA this past weekend. Much greener than I've seen in it the past, downright lush in the Hollywood Hills.

 

Took this pic in Santa Monica.

 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GFS shows 10 out of the next 17 days being basically dry.     There is a 3-day rainy period this week and another 3-day rainy period shown next week.  

 

That is a ratio I can get behind at this point in the year. 

[IbrChris]

Commit three years of your life to volunteer work then you will be free to mock me all you want.

So do my kids live with me in a cardboard box or where you able to rely on generous family members/trust fund?

[IbrChris]

Nice to see that beautiful ridge on the 12z GFS Op...fair minority of GEFS members going for some sort of warmth out in the 11-15...fingers crossed. If the Op scenario materializes we'd be talking well into the 80s PDX...SEA probably 80 too.

At least we look to switch to a +PNA around 4/20...continuing through the 11-15 period so it might not be a terribly far-fetched progression.

[IbrChris]

Crazy that Albany, NY is headed for 82 or so today yet we haven't managed 65 at PDX yet this spring.

Nevermind, KALB already hit 82 today...maybe 83 or 84.

[DareDuck]

I was in southern CA this past weekend. Much greener than I've seen in it the past, downright lush in the Hollywood Hills.

 

Took this pic in Santa Monica.

Nice pic. My brother lives in Marina del Rey so I'll be visiting that area too. I'm from Thousand Oaks (actually Westlake Village, but less people know where that is) right up against the Santa Monica Mountains so I'm hoping the hills are really green right now. I grew up hiking those mountains, but rarely was it very green.

[Guest happ]

Nice pic. My brother lives in Marina del Rey so I'll be visiting that area too. I'm from Thousand Oaks (actually Westlake Village, but less people know where that is) right up against the Santa Monica Mountains so I'm hoping the hills are really green right now. I grew up hiking those mountains, but rarely was it very green.

 

The hills are still green and the grass is above knee-level but it is turning brown day by day. The last significant rain [ie. over an inch] was in mid-February w/ scattered small storms [mostly under 0.15] off an on last month. One day of rain in April [0.03] so far.

[stuffradio]

FWIW... the 12Z GFS shows 10 out of the next 17 days being basically dry.     There is a 3-day rainy period this week and another 3-day rainy period shown next week.  

 

That is a ratio I can get behind at this point in the year. 

Nothing that great up here yet. Still looks like at least showers all weekend and rain basically all next week. Today is awesome, but that's basically it.

 

[TT-SEA]

Nothing that great up here yet. Still looks like at least showers all weekend and rain basically all next week. Today is awesome, but that's basically it.

 

 

 

The 12Z GFS shows a great day for everyone on Easter Sunday... and the new 12Z ECMWF coming out now agrees.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017041112/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png

[Jesse]

So do my kids live with me in a cardboard box or where you able to rely on generous family members/trust fund?

Neither.

 

I think you missed a big chunk of the conversation after this. Go back and read.

[TT-SEA]

Nothing that great up here yet. Still looks like at least showers all weekend and rain basically all next week. Today is awesome, but that's basically it.

 

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

Just checked... 12Z ECMWF shows sunshine and 65 in Vancouver BC on Easter. 

[Phil]

Crazy that Albany, NY is headed for 82 or so today yet we haven't managed 65 at PDX yet this spring.

Nevermind, KALB already hit 82 today...maybe 83 or 84.

It's 88 degrees here right now w/ low humidity. Love it.

[IbrChris]

Neither.

 

I think you missed a big chunk of the conversation after this. Go back and read.

Scholarships, last I looked, are only issued once you're in school. Actually a big reason why I opted against going back to school (besides a roughly $100,000 a year opportunity cost even with a full-ride) is the fact that I have kids now. Full-time school is not very compatible with raising a family...though some people can swing it.

 

Military (like ROTC) makes more sense if you're looking for an easy way to pay for school. I'm not a big fan of this route but it has some definite upside, namely the GI bill. Downside of course is possible deployment if der Fuehrer Drumpf has his way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Scholarships, last I looked, are only issued once you're in school. Actually a big reason why I opted against going back to school (besides a roughly $100,000 a year opportunity cost even with a full-ride) is the fact that I have kids now. Full-time school is not very compatible with raising a family...though some people can swing it.

 

Military (like ROTC) makes more sense if you're looking for an easy way to pay for school. I'm not a big fan of this route but it has some definite upside, namely the GI bill. Downside of course is possible deployment if der Fuehrer Drumpf has his way.

Earlier Jesse was praising himself for not having kids. Luckily with our 7 combined daughters we already have college out of the way.

[IbrChris]

Earlier Jesse was praising himself for not having kids. Luckily with our 7 combined daughters we already have college out of the way.

College savings plans?

 

My parents didn't pay for my school and I don't resent them for not paying for it. I qualified for some grants, some scholarships and ended up getting about $15,000 in student loans (back when the Stafford interest rate was 6.8% too, today it's half that). Paid those loans off a couple years ago.

 

I don't intend to pay my kids' way (not to mention too many variables with cost of college increasing in some cases 400% of inflation and no way to know where your child will attend). It very well could cost 3-4x what it does today by the time they get to college and very few investments will deliver sufficient rate of return to guarantee affordability.

[epiceast]

Or you could just come to the west side!

 

Surprising it has been so dry over there.

Has it been wet over in Medford? That's about where Bend's downwind fetch comes over from.

[epiceast]

Also are we continuing "everybody rag on Jesse day?" again.

[DareDuck]

Has it been wet over in Medford? That's about where Bend's downwind fetch comes over from.

According to the WRCC maps they've been around or slightly above average. These maps are pretty fun to play around with: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/anomimage.pl?wrc30dPpct.gif

 

Our area and areas to the east have just been constantly shadowed in this SW flow. I normally don't mind, but the SW flow often creates mountain wave clouds that hang 10-20 miles off the crest and over town. So not a lot of sun, warmth, or precip.

[epiceast]

nAccording to the WRCC maps they've been around or slightly above average. These maps are pretty fun to play around with: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/anomimage.pl?wrc30dPpct.gif

 

Our area and areas to the east have just been constantly shadowed in this SW flow. I normally don't mind, but the SW flow often creates mountain wave clouds that hang 10-20 miles off the crest and over town. So not a lot of sun, warmth, or precip.

Wouldn't have guessed SW flow shadows bend really hard. It's the only flow that brings precip in tri-cities.

[Jesse]

Scholarships, last I looked, are only issued once you're in school. Actually a big reason why I opted against going back to school (besides a roughly $100,000 a year opportunity cost even with a full-ride) is the fact that I have kids now. Full-time school is not very compatible with raising a family...though some people can swing it.

 

Military (like ROTC) makes more sense if you're looking for an easy way to pay for school. I'm not a big fan of this route but it has some definite upside, namely the GI bill. Downside of course is possible deployment if der Fuehrer Drumpf has his way.

AmeriCorps issues a fairly sizable scholarship for each year of service, regardless of whether you are doing school currently. I began attending college again about halfway through my three year term of service.

 

Although Fuehrer Drumpf has also cut AmeriCorps pretty harshly, from what I can tell. We also came very close to losing funding during the government shut down of 2013.

[Jesse]

Also are we continuing "everybody rag on Jesse day?" again.

I don't really feel like I'm being ragged on.

[IbrChris]

AmeriCorps issues a fairly sizable scholarship for each year of service, regardless of whether you are doing school currently. I began attending college again about halfway through my three year term of service.

 

Although Fuehrer Drumpf has also cut AmeriCorps pretty harshly, from what I can tell. We also came very close to losing funding during the government shut down of 2013.

 

Is it a scholarship if it's not contingent on school attendance? Or is the award contingent on school attendance? If not, seems it's just a payment for services. If it is, it's probably less than you would receive working the same number of hours at a job. Still seems like the GI bill would be preferable and only a year longer (4 years service for 4 years of schooling covered).

 

I spent 2 years in Brazil both doing missionary work and volunteer work (much of it was teaching English classes). No remuneration and no scholarships...but I don't regret the experience.

[Jesse]

Is it a scholarship if it's not contingent on school attendance? Or is the award contingent on school attendance? If not, seems it's just a payment for services. If it is, it's probably less than you would receive working the same number of hours at a job. Still seems like the GI bill would be preferable and only a year longer (4 years service for 4 years of schooling covered).

 

I spent 2 years in Brazil both doing missionary work and volunteer work (much of it was teaching English classes). No remuneration and no scholarships...but I don't regret the experience.

It's just an education award that you can use any time within 10 years.

[IbrChris]

It's just an education award that you can use any time within 10 years.

What convinced you to go that route versus either military, working while going to school or incurring student debt?

[DareDuck]

Wouldn't have guessed SW flow shadows bend really hard. It's the only flow that brings precip in tri-cities.

Usually isn't this bad. Of course straight westerly flow is the worst, but for some reason these storms from the SW lose their punch as the move up from the south.

[Jesse]

What convinced you to go that route versus either military, working while going to school or incurring student debt?

I wouldn't join the military in a million years. Just not my thing. And when faced with the option of going into debt or not going into debt for a higher education I chose the latter.

 

As for working, I have been working and going to school full time since my AmeriCorps term ended. Like I said, scholarships haven't covered everything. They just made college a lot more doable without incurring debt.

 

Plus I just really enjoyed the opportunity to work teaching kids who are struggling in their regular classes to read. We also ran an after school homework help club, a chess club, and other programs.