April 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could imagine you pulling off cornrows. Is that a popular hairstyle up there?

I haven't cut my hair since September, I'm threatening to go with cornrows.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I know your ensembles are usually a lot warmer, but it looks pretty rollercoastery down here. Nice mix of warm and cool spells, which is perfect for this time of year. Dynamic!

 

IMG_1222.PNG

 

Dynamic would be an improvement, much better than persistent SW flow and rain shadowing. I'd still be happy with sunny breaks between the occasional stretch of rainy weather.

[ShawniganLake]

It'll be close but April should be the 5th consecutive below average month here. I have a feeling May will end up warmer than normal for the first half.

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

The crash from Thursday to Friday looks fairly epic. Some places could see high temps fall from around 80 to low 50s the next day, if the latest Euro is to be believed.

Yeah. Looks like fun stuff. That sort of thing is what late Spring is all about.

 

If I am going to jump on the wishcasting bus for next month it will be for thunderstorms and big temperature swings as opposed to consistent warmth.

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah. Looks like fun stuff. That sort of thing is what late Spring is all about.

 

If I am going to jump on the wishcasting bus for next month it will be for thunderstorms and big temperature swings as opposed to consistent warmth.

Are you finished editing this post?

 

Thunderstorms are always appreciated and fun to watch.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It'll be close but April should be the 5th consecutive below average month here. I have a feeling May will end up warmer than normal for the first half.

 

 

YYJ is currently running slightly warmer than average this month and that area has been cooler than many parts of town. This area is running 0.5C warmer than YYJ.

[ShawniganLake]

YYJ is currently running slightly warmer than average this month and that area has been cooler than many parts of town. This area is running 0.5C warmer than YYJ.

Shawnigan lake is at 8.5C. Average for April is 8.7C. Today looks like it will be around 50/35, so it might drop that average a touch.

[Jesse]

[ShawniganLake]

Still waiting for the cherry blossoms to open here. Haven't heard any updates from down south. I would assume they are done in the North Bend area

[Jesse]

PDX should end up around -1.5F for April when all is said and done. Here is the rest of the region:

 

[Jesse]

Still waiting for the cherry blossoms to open here. Haven't heard any updates from down south. I would assume they are done in the North Bend area

They started blooming down here last week. They are still looking great, but the blossom fall will probably be starting in a few more days as the leaves push in.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I looked up April 2011 up here the other day. Mean temp for the month at Silver Falls was 39. Pretty incredible.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Shawnigan lake is at 8.5C. Average for April is 8.7C. Today looks like it will be around 50/35, so it might drop that average a touch.

 

 

Definitely been a colder month up your way. YYJ is at 9.2C with an average of 9C, today could end up slightly below average but it will be cloudy into the night and won't cool off as much and tomorrow looks to be above the monthly average with the westerly winds/clearing so it's hard to see them falling below average.

[ShawniganLake]

PDX should end up around -1.5F for April when all is said and done. Here is the rest of the region:

 

IMG_1224.PNG

Been a pretty good stretch of chilly weather for you down there.

[Jesse]

I looked up April 2011 up here the other day. Mean temp for the month at Silver Falls was 39. Pretty incredible.

 

Ware did u end up dis mont?

[TT-SEA]

The crash from Thursday to Friday looks fairly epic. Some places could see high temps fall from around 80 to low 50s the next day, if the latest Euro is to be believed.

Looks like upper 70s to upper 50s for Seattle per the 12Z ECMWF.

[TT-SEA]

Still waiting for the cherry blossoms to open here. Haven't heard any updates from down south. I would assume they are done in the North Bend area

That is insane. Its been total crap and cold in our area and the cherry blossoms are already done in North Bend and were just about done at our elevation when we left Tuesday. They were done in Seattle in early April.

[TT-SEA]

Sure looks like ULL season at the end of the 12Z ECMWF run. That should allow for more consistency. Maybe consistently nice? We sure are due.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ware did u end up dis mont?

Haven't really run the temp numbers, but about 135% of normal precip. I am guessing temps will be near average, perhaps slightly below average.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like the Seattle area is going to get shadowed today.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like the Seattle area is going to get shadowed today.

 

Also looks like BLI will end their mini-drought. Only .02" there since the 15th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Also looks like BLI will end their mini-drought. Only .02" there since the 15th.

Interesting, about 80% of my precip fell after the 15th

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Also looks like BLI will end their mini-drought. Only .02" there since the 15th.

 

Good chance we end our mini-drought as well. Not quite that extreme, but only 0.18" since April 13, all from a bunch of smaller rainfalls that never dropped over 0.04".

[ShawniganLake]

Interesting, about 80% of my precip fell after the 15th

Pretty persistent shift south with the storm track after mid month. Parts of the BC lower mainland are looking at a potentially top 3 wettest April. With the majority falling before the 15th.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Nice to finally get some rain. It's a shame it won't last longer, but the 18z GFS and 12z GEM runs give hope that we'll see at least a few more shots at drought relief through the upcoming week  

[TT-SEA]

86 degrees and sunny here again... got out on the water today.    Also saw a huge anti-Trump march this morning!   The signs were about protecting the EPA.  Did not expect that here.  

 

People sure do live outdoors which might not be the usual perception of South Carolina.   So many people biking and walking all over and every restaurant is basically a blend of indoors and outdoors.   Really love the homes too... lots of colonial styles and huge, ornate yards.   I did not expect Charleston (and the entire area) to be so clean and well-maintained.  

 

[TT-SEA]

With the switch from strong jet to meandering ULLs there will be even less consistency in the models.   Could be huge swings even in the range that is usually consistent.

[stuffradio]

I could imagine you pulling off cornrows. Is that a popular hairstyle up there?

Not for me it isn't.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Didn't expect so much rain this evening. Dang

[Phil]

Super similar NPAC circulation to 1993 so far. That year also had the deep -NAO in May, along with the ridge retrogression through western North America.

 

2017:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5DDFD945-98BC-4CBA-AC9B-D4DDB8312E4B_zpsdgr8yt5s.jpg

 

 

1993:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/694B7033-6161-4357-B21C-A123CA48333F_zps4zftik7z.jpg

[seattleweatherguy]

Super similar NPAC circulation to 1993 so far. That year also had the deep -NAO in May, along with the ridge retrogression through western North America.

 

2017:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5DDFD945-98BC-4CBA-AC9B-D4DDB8312E4B_zpsdgr8yt5s.jpg

 

 

1993:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/694B7033-6161-4357-B21C-A123CA48333F_zps4zftik7z.jpg

Does this mean cold summer?

[Phil]

Does this mean cold summer?

Cooler than average? Yeah, I think so, at least into July.

 

The next 2 weeks look warmer than average overall, though, as the MJO propagates eastward and the NAO plunges. Same thing happened in May of 1993, just ~ 2 weeks later. All under very similar circumstances.

 

Though, 1993 was a bit more Niño-esque at this point.

[Front Ranger]

Super similar NPAC circulation to 1993 so far. That year also had the deep -NAO in May, along with the ridge retrogression through western North America.

 

2017:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5DDFD945-98BC-4CBA-AC9B-D4DDB8312E4B_zpsdgr8yt5s.jpg

 

 

1993:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/694B7033-6161-4357-B21C-A123CA48333F_zps4zftik7z.jpg

 

Ain't gonna happen. This summer will not be a '93 redux.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Maybe I just wasn't paying attention, but it rained a lot more than I expected overnight, almost half an inch.

[Jesse]

Nice morning, cool breeze and lots of sunbreaks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice morning, cool breeze and lots of sunbreaks.

Still raining and my warmest low of the month by 4 degrees. Awful weekend

[Jesse]

Still raining and my warmest low of the month by 4 degrees. Awful weekend

You'll set your low at midnight tonight.

[seattleweatherguy]

So the summer of 93 got hot in the end?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You'll set your low at midnight tonight.

Probably. Stopped raining, now it just needs to dry out so I can mow!